1 st Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Presentation April 27, 2017 Safe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 st quarter 2017 earnings release presentation
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1 st Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Presentation April 27, 2017 Safe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 st Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Presentation April 27, 2017 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the


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1st Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Presentation

April 27, 2017

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“Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

Investor Relations Contacts

Bette Jo Rozsa Managing Director Investor Relations 614-716-2840 bjrozsa@aep.com Brad Funk Director Investor Relations 614-716-3162 bmfunk@aep.com

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Although AEP and each of its Registrant Subsidiaries believe that their expectations are based on reasonable assumptions, any such statements may be influenced by factors that could cause actual

  • utcomes and results to be materially different from those projected. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-

looking statements are: the economic climate, growth or contraction within and changes in market demand and demographic patterns in our service territory, inflationary

  • r deflationary interest rate trends, volatility in the financial markets, particularly developments affecting the availability of capital on reasonable terms and developments

impairing our ability to finance new capital projects and refinance existing debt at attractive rates, the availability or cost of capital to finance new capital projects and refinance existing debt, the availability and cost of funds to finance working capital and capital needs, particularly during periods when the time lag between incurring costs and recovery is long and the costs are material, electric load, customer growth and the impact of competition including competition for retail customers, weather conditions, including storms and drought conditions, and our ability to recover significant storm restoration costs, available sources and costs of, and transportation for, fuels and the creditworthiness and performance of fuel suppliers and transporters, availability of necessary generation capacity and the performance of our generation plants, our ability to recover increases in fuel and other energy costs through regulated or competitive electric rates, our ability to build transmission lines and facilities (including our ability to obtain any necessary regulatory approvals and permits) when needed at acceptable prices and terms and to recover those costs, new legislation, litigation and government regulation, including oversight of nuclear generation, energy commodity trading and new or heightened requirements for reduced emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, mercury, carbon, soot or particulate matter and other substances that could impact the continued operation, cost recovery and/or profitability of our generation plants and related assets, evolving public perception of the risks associated with fuels used before, during and after the generation of electricity, including nuclear fuel, a reduction in the federal statutory tax rate could result in an accelerated return of deferred federal income taxes to customers, timing and resolution of pending and future rate cases, negotiations and other regulatory decisions including rate or other recovery of new investments in generation, distribution and transmission service and environmental compliance, resolution of litigation, our ability to constrain operation and maintenance costs, our ability to develop and execute a strategy based on a view regarding prices of electricity and other energy-related commodities, prices and demand for power that we generate and sell at wholesale, changes in technology, particularly with respect to energy storage and new, developing, alternative or distributed sources of generation, our ability to recover through rates or market prices any remaining unrecovered investment in generation units that may be retired before the end of their previously projected useful lives, volatility and changes in markets for capacity and electricity, coal, and other energy-related commodities, particularly changes in the price of natural gas and capacity auction returns, changes in utility regulation and the allocation of costs within regional transmission organizations, including ERCOT, PJM and SPP, the market for generation in Ohio and PJM and the ability to recover investment in Ohio generation assets, our ability to successfully and profitably manage our competitive generation assets including the evaluation and execution of strategic alternatives for these assets as some of the alternatives could result in a loss, changes in the creditworthiness of the counterparties with whom we have contractual arrangements, including participants in the energy trading market, actions of rating agencies, including changes in the ratings of our debt, the impact

  • f volatility in the capital markets on the value of the investments held by our pension, other postretirement benefit plans, captive insurance entity and nuclear

decommissioning trust and the impact of such volatility on future funding requirements, accounting pronouncements periodically issued by accounting standard-setting bodies and other risks and unforeseen events, including wars, the effects of terrorism (including increased security costs), embargoes, cyber security threats and other catastrophic events.

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Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Investor Relations Contacts

Bette Jo Rozsa Managing Director Investor Relations 614-716-2840 bjrozsa@aep.com Brad Funk Director Investor Relations 614-716-3162 bmfunk@aep.com

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AEP reports its financial results in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (GAAP). AEP supplements the reporting of financial information determined in accordance with GAAP with certain non-GAAP financial measures, including operating earnings (non-GAAP) and FFO to Total Debt. Operating earnings (non-GAAP) excludes certain gains and losses and other specified items, including mark-to-market adjustments from commodity hedging activities and other items as set forth in the reconciliation in the Appendix. FFO to Total Debt is adjusted for the effects of securitization, spent nuclear fuel trust, capital and operating leases, pension, capitalized interest and changes in working capital. Operating earnings could differ from GAAP earnings for matters such as impairments, divestitures, or changes in accounting principles. AEP management is not able to forecast if any of these items will occur or any amounts that may be reported for future periods. Therefore, AEP is not able to provide a corresponding GAAP equivalent for earnings guidance. Reflecting special items recorded through the first quarter of 2017, the estimated earnings per share on a GAAP basis would be $3.79 to $3.99 per share. This information is intended to enhance an investor’s overall understanding of period over period financial results and provide an indication of AEP’s baseline operating performance by excluding items that are considered by management to be not directly related to the ongoing operations of the business. In addition, this information is among the primary indicators management uses as a basis for evaluating performance, allocating resources, setting incentive compensation targets and planning and forecasting of future periods. These non-GAAP financial measures are not a presentation defined under GAAP and may not be comparable to other companies’ presentations. AEP has provided these non-GAAP financial measures as supplemental information and in addition to the financial measures that are calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. These non-GAAP measures should not be deemed more useful than, a substitute for, or an alternative to the most comparable GAAP measures provided in the materials

  • presented. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are provided in the appendices and supplemental schedules to this

presentation.

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First Quarter 2017 Highlights

First Quarter 2017 Company Update

Refer to appendix for reconciliation between GAAP and Operating EPS

Earnings Update  Realized GAAP earnings of $1.20 per share and operating earnings of $0.96 per share for the first quarter of 2017  Reaffirmed 2017 operating earnings guidance range of $3.55 to $3.75 per share Regulatory & Strategic Update  Closed on sale of certain competitive generation assets  Received FERC order on forward-looking transmission rates with January 1 effective date, pending hearing/settlement

  • Complete strategic review of remaining competitive

generation assets

  • Continue limited Ohio legislative initiative
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AEP OH 14.5% APCo 9.6% KPCo 6.3% I&M 11.3% PSO 7.5% SWEPCO 7.2% AEP TX 10.7% Trans 12.6%

Regulated Returns

Twelve Months Ended 3/31/2017 Earned ROEs (non-GAAP Operating Earnings)

Sphere size based on each company’s relative equity balance

Regulated Operations ROE of 10.4%

as of March 31, 2017

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1st Quarter 2017 Operating Earnings vs. Prior Year

Refer to appendix for additional explanation of variances by segment

($0.07) $0.03 $0.03

2017 Operating EPS $0.45 $0.24 $0.14 $0.14 ($0.01) $0.96

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Weather Normalized Billed Retail Load Trends

Note: Load figures are provided on a billed basis. Charts reflect connected load and exclude firm wholesale and Buckeye Power backup load. See Appendix for load figures on a billed plus accrued basis.

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Recovering Energy Prices Impact Load Growth

Source: Moody’s analytics and company records

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Economic Data – AEP Service Territory

Source: Moody’s analytics

estimates estimates estimates

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(unaudited) 3/31/2017 Actual ($ in millions) Amount Maturity Revolving Credit Facility $3,000 June 2021 Revolving Credit Facility $500 June 2018 Total Credit Facilities $3,500 Plus Cash & Cash Equivalents $175 Less Commercial Paper Outstanding ($964) Letters of Credit Issued

  • Net Available Liquidity

$2,711 Actual Target FFO to Total Debt 19.5% 15%-20%

Capitalization & Liquidity

Liquidity Summary Credit Statistics

Represents the trailing 12 months as of 3/31/2017 See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP

Total Debt / Total Capitalization

Strong balance sheet, credit metrics, and liquidity

Qualified Pension Funding

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Summary

Reaffirm 2017 operating earnings guidance of $3.55 - $3.75

  • Solid Q1 operating earnings despite mild weather
  • Continued O&M discipline
  • Continued execution of strategic transformation
  • Reaffirming 2017 operating earnings guidance range of

$3.55 to $3.75 per share & 5% - 7% growth rate

50MW Boulder Solar II project in Nevada. This AEP RenewablesSM project achieved commercial operation status in Q1 2017.

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Appendix

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1st Quarter Reconciliation of GAAP to Operating Earnings

$ millions Earnings Per Share Q1-16 Q1-17 Change Q1-16 Q1-17 Change Reported (GAAP) Earnings $501 $592 $91 $1.02 $1.20 $0.18 Non Operating Items: Mark-to-Market Impact of Commodity Hedging Activities*

  • 2

2

  • Gain from Competitive

Generation Asset Sale*

  • (127)

(127)

  • (0.26)

(0.26) Impairment of Certain Merchant Generation Assets*

  • 7

7

  • 0.02

0.02 AEP Operating Earnings $501 $474 ($27) $1.02 $0.96 ($0.06)

Weighted average no. of shares outstanding: 491M Q1-16 & 492M Q1-17

* Items recorded in Generation and Marketing segment

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Vertically Integrated Utilities

Q1-16 Q1-17

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $2,246 $2,290 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (742) (788) Operations & Maintenance (630) (654) Depreciation & Amortization (267) (278) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (98) (101) Operating Income 509 469 Net Interest/AFUDC (109) (121) Income Taxes (122) (128) Other

  • Operating & GAAP Earnings

$278 $220 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.57 $0.45

First Quarter EPS Summary Key Drivers: Q1-17 vs. Q1-16

 Rate changes: $29M primarily from increases at APCo, SWEPCo and I&M  Weather: $58M unfavorable vs. prior year; $80M unfavorable vs. normal  Retail load: $12M unfavorable vs. prior year primarily due to decreased residential sales  O&M: $7M favorable (net of offsets) vs. prior year primarily due to lower employee related expenses  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 36.6% Q1-17

  • vs. 30.4% Q1-16.
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Transmission & Distribution Utilities

Q1-16 Q1-17

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $1,097 $1,086 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (218) (223) Amortization of Generation Deferrals (55) (61) Operations & Maintenance (325) (286) Depreciation & Amortization (156) (156) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (123) (127) Operating Income 220 233 Net Interest/AFUDC (59) (50) Income Taxes (53) (64) Operating & GAAP Earnings $108 $119 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.22 $0.24

First Quarter EPS Summary Key Drivers: Q1-17 vs. Q1-16

 Rate changes: $32M primarily from Ohio Phase- In Recovery Rider and Distribution Investment Rider and Texas Distribution Cost Recovery Factor  Negligible weather impact vs. prior year and vs. normal  Retail Load: $13M unfavorable due to lower prices and decreased Texas residential sales  ERCOT Transmission Revenue: $9M favorable due to increased transmission investment  O&M (net of offsets) flat vs. prior year  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 34.9% Q1-17

  • vs. 33.0% Q1-16.
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AEP Transmission Holdco

Q1-16 Q1-17

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $89 $156 Operating Expenses: Operations & Maintenance (12) (14) Depreciation & Amortization (16) (25) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (21) (28) Operating Income 40 89 Net Interest/AFUDC 1 (6) Income Taxes (20) (36) Equity Earnings 24 26 Other (1) (1) Operating & GAAP Earnings $44 $72 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.09 $0.14

First Quarter EPS Summary Key Drivers: Q1-17 vs. Q1-16

 $49M favorable operating income due to increased revenues and expenses, driven by increased capital investment in the wholly-

  • wned Transcos
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Generation & Marketing

Q1-16 Q1-17

$ millions (except EPS) Operating Revenues $748 $594 Operating Expenses: Energy Costs (479) (405) Operations & Maintenance (94) (86) Depreciation & Amortization (49) (6) Taxes Other Than Income Taxes (10) (2) Operating Income 116 95 Net Interest/AFUDC (8) (4) Income Taxes (37) (23) Operating Earnings 71 68 Proforma Adjustments, Net of Tax

  • 118

GAAP Earnings $71 $186 EPS from Operating Earnings $0.14 $0.14

First Quarter EPS Summary

See slide 13 for items excluded from Net Income to reconcile to Operating Earnings

Key Drivers: Q1-17 vs. Q1-16

 Generation decreased 4,212 GWh (45%) Q1-17

  • vs. Q1-16 due to sale of plants in January

 AEP Dayton ATC liquidations up 12%: $28.75/MWh in Q1-17 vs. $25.68/MWh in Q1-16  Depreciation & Amortization: $43M favorable

  • vs. prior year primarily due to decreased

depreciation resulting from the Q3 2016 asset impairment and plants being sold  Retail: $6M favorable primarily due to increased gas margins  Income Taxes: effective tax rate of 24.8% Q1-17

  • vs. 34.5% Q1-16. Current year reflects positive

impact of solar investment tax credits being recognized on an amortized basis

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Rate Changes, net of

  • ffsets (in millions)

Q1-17 vs. Q1-16 APCo/WPCo $10 I&M $5 KPCo $2 PSO $4 SWEPCO $6 Kingsport $2 TOTAL $29 Impact on EPS

Retail Rate Performance

$0.04 Rate Changes, net of

  • ffsets (in millions)

Q1-17 vs. Q1-16 AEP Ohio $20 AEP Texas $12 TOTAL $32 Impact on EPS $0.04

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

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Retail Load* (weather normalized) Q1-17 vs. Q1-16 AEP Ohio 0.2% AEP Texas

  • 2.1%

TOTAL

  • 0.7%

Impact on EPS** Retail Load* (weather normalized) Q1-17 vs. Q1-16 APCo/WPCo

  • 1.6%

I&M 0.5% KPCo

  • 2.4%

PSO 1.4% SWEPCO

  • 2.1%

Kingsport

  • 0.1%

TOTAL

  • 0.8%

Impact on EPS**

Retail Load Performance

Transmission & Distribution Utilities Vertically Integrated Utilities

$0.02 $0.02

* Includes load on a billed basis only. Excludes Firm Wholesale Load and accrued sales. ** Includes EPS impact of accrued revenues.

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Normalized Retail Load Trends (Billed & Accrued)

Note: Load figures are provided on a billed and accrued basis. Charts reflect connected load and exclude firm wholesale and Buckeye Power backup load.

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Weather Impact (in millions) Q1-17 vs. Q1-16 Q1-17 vs. Normal APCo/WPCo ($39) ($42) I&M ($7) ($14) KPCo ($8) ($9) PSO

  • ($4)

SWEPCO ($4) ($11) Kingsport

  • TOTAL

($58) ($80) Impact on EPS

Weather Impact

Weather Impact (in millions) Q1-17 vs. Q1-16 Q1-17 vs. Normal AEP Ohio

  • AEP Texas

$1 ($2) TOTAL $1 ($2) Impact on EPS

  • Transmission & Distribution Utilities

Vertically Integrated Utilities

$0.11 $0.08

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GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations & Ratios

Adjusted Total Debt Calculation Adjusted FFO Calculation

As of 3/31/17

$ millions GAAP Total Debt (incl. current maturities) $20,772 Less: Securitization Bonds (1,592) Spent Nuclear Fuel Trust (266) Add: Capital Lease Obligations 300 Pension 259 Off-balance Sheet Leases 1,038 Adjusted Total Debt (Non-GAAP) $20,511 Adjusted Funds from Operations (FFO) Adjusted Total Debt (Non-GAAP) $4,002 $20,511

= = 19.5%

FFO to Total Debt Ratio

12 Months Ended 3/31/17

$ millions Cash Flow From Operations $4,528 Adjustments: Changes in Working Capital (365) Capitalized Interest (46) Securitization Amortization (276) Lease Payments 161 Adjusted Funds from Operations (FFO) $4,002