1 the Outlook is a preliminary forecast of status stock groups - - PDF document

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• the Outlook is a preliminary forecast of “status”
• stock groups are arranged into “Outlook Units”
• primarily a categorical qualitative assessment; not quantitative
• status and targets are based on a variety of approaches including expert opinion
• this should not be confused with WSP status relative to biological benchmarks
• preliminary outlook is provided in November 2013
• final outlook is planned for April 2014

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• a total of 91 Outlook Units (four fewer units this year)
• Outlook Units represent aggregates of the more than 400 Wild Salmon Policy

Conservation Units

• the units are further aggregated into management units
• for example, Fraser sockeye
• are composed of 26 Conservation Units,
• which are aggregated into 14 Outlook Units,
• that are managed in 4 units: Early Stuart, Early Summer, Summer and

Late.

• Fraser chinook salmon outlooks are now harmonized with management units
• formerly nine Outlook Units are now re-organized into five units
• due to the preliminary nature, comparisons with previous outlooks are weak; so

the 2014 Outlook needs to stand on its own rather than be a comparison with the previous outlook 3

• there are four Outlook Categories
• 1-Stock of Concern
• 2-Low
• 3-Near Target
• 4-Abundant
• Note the colour coding here is just for presentation purposes and is not

a match with Wild Salmon Policy status classification

• Outlook is meant to be an objective & consistent context for fisheries planning
• from a biological perspective, it gives indication of fishing opportunities and

stocks around which fisheries may be shaped

• it is a prelude to Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat quantitative forecasts

and formal advice process

• it includes outlooks for DFO managed salmon species (sockeye, coho, pink,

chum, chinook); no steelhead populations included 4

• a total of 91 Outlook Units were considered
• four fewer units this year as a result of the re-organization of Fraser

chinook Outlook Units

• utlooks categorized for 84 units
• six units were data deficient (ND)
• ne pink unit was not applicable (NA)
• thirty-three (33) Outlook Units are likely to be at or above target abundance
• categories 3, 4, and 3/4 fall in this group
• twenty-eight (28) are expected to be of some conservation concern
• categories 1, 2, and 1/2 fall in this group
• the remaining 23 Outlook Units have mixed outlook levels
• categories 1/3, 1/4, 2/3, and 2/4 fall in this group
• the mixed categories mean that there is a component stock for that unit with a

minimum of the first number and a maximum of the second number

• verall, the outlook for 2014 has improved relative to the previous outlook

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• twenty-one (21) Outlook Units improved in category from the previous Outlook
• for sockeye these are
• Early Stuart
• Early Summer – North Thompson
• Summer – Nechako
• Fall – Portage
• Fall – South Thompson
• Somass
• Areas 11 to 13
• Babine Lake - Enhanced, and
• Skeena - Wild
• for chinook these are
• Fraser Summer Run 41
• WCVI Hatchery
• Areas 9 & 10, and
• Skeena
• for coho these are

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• Mid & Upper Fraser
• Thompson
• Area 13
• Georgia Strait, and
• Alsek
• for pink these are
• Areas 11 to 13, and
• Areas 3 to 6
• and for chum this is
• Yukon
• nine units declined in category
• for sockeye these are
• Early Summer - Lower Fraser
• Summer - Raft, and
• Henderson
• for chinook these are
• Fraser Spring Run 42
• Fraser Summer Run 52, and
• Stikine
• for pink it is
• Georgia Strait - West
• and for chum these are
• Georgia Strait, and
• Porcupine
• no coho units declined

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• The next few slides have a map with symbols which indicate the Outlook

Category for each of the Outlook Units in BC.

• The number on the symbol indicates the Outlook Unit index number.
• The background colour indicates the Outlook Category.
• If the Outlook Unit has a mixed Outlook Category, the background will be divided

into two coloured portions.

• The lower portion of the background indicates the lower category value.
• The upper portion of the background indicates the upper category value.
• If the Outlook Unit has changed its Outlook Category from the previous outlook, it

will have a coloured border

• A red border indicates a decline over the previous outlook
• A green border indicates an improvement over the previous outlook

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• 31 Outlook Units, 215 CUs
• Fraser sockeye
• Half of the units are expected to be near target or abundant; half of the

units are expect to be below target

• There is potential for a strong 2014 return to South Thompson for the

Early Summer and Fall runs, as well as to Chilko for the Summer run.

• Pre-season abundance forecasts will be available by late February 2014
• The research document on integrated Wild Salmon Policy status

assessments is now published and can be downloaded from the Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat website (http://www.dfo- mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/)

• Somass sockeye
• Returns are expected to be abundant.
• This is due to high fry production from the 2010 brood and good

conditions upon entry into the ocean in 2012 for those fish returning as 4-year-olds in 2014.

• Skeena sockeye
• Survival for sockeye that went to sea in 2012 (returning as 4-year olds in

2014) is expected to be above the recent average based on the very large 2013 Babine jack sockeye return 8

• Nass sockeye
• Average overall returns are expected

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• 21 Outlook Units; 74 CUs
• Some modifications to chinook Conservation Units since last year based
• n reviews conducted for COSEWIC data assembly work
• An integrated WSP status assessment workshop is planned for southern

BC chinook in February 2014

• COSEWIC is planning to conduct status assessments in late 2014.
• Fraser chinook
• Escapements in 2013 continued to be low while meeting parental brood

levels.

• Expectations for 2014 are for modest improvements over parental brood

escapements but continued overall low abundance levels.

• A pre-season abundance forecast for the Lower Fraser Fall unit will be

available by late March 2014.

• WCVI chinook
• Hatchery returns are expected to be variable but with some potential for

improvement in age 3 and 4 returns.

• Robertson Creek Hatchery continues to see lower marine survival of

chinook relative to Conuma and Nitinat.

• Wild Conservation Units continue to be stocks of concern.

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• Areas 7 and 8 chinook
• Bella Coola returns are expected to be average.
• Dean chinook are expected to be below average.
• Stikine chinook
• The preliminary pre-season forecast is below the trigger for conducting a

directed fishery in Canada

• the official bi-lateral forecast available week of December 2nd

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• 19 Outlook Units; 43 CUs
• Fraser coho
• Outlook is improved for Interior Fraser coho for the first time in over a

decade.

• Early 2013 escapement information suggests continuation of the recent

rebuilding trend.

• Sustained improvement in marine conditions will be required in order

further improve the outlook.

• Forecasts will be available for these units in the spring of 2014.
• An interim status assessment is planned for January 2014; a WSP status

assessment is planned for late 2014.

• WCVI coho
• The parental brood was abundant in south west Vancouver Island and the

marine indicators for the 2013 sea entry year are generally positive.

• The outlook is for an abundant return in most systems, albeit with local

variability and more moderate returns in north west Vancouver Island.

• Georgia Strait coho
• The 2013 observations of returns in southern Georgia Strait suggest an

increase in marine survival above the forecast. 10

• North Island returns have also exhibited improvements relative to previous

years but not to the same magnitude as stocks further south.

• North Coast coho
• Remain at target or abundant for most stocks
• Alsek coho
• An above average run is expected based on an average escapement for

the 2010 brood year, and a very strong return in 2013. 10

• 9 Outlook Units; 31 CUs
• Fraser pink
• 2014 is an off cycle year.
• Insignificant numbers of pink salmon return to the Fraser River in even

numbered years.

• Areas 11 to 13 pink
• Below average to average returns expected.
• Returns to this area have been highly variable therefore expectations are

highly uncertain.

• Georgia Strait pink
• Below average returns to natural stocks are expected.
• Areas 3 to 6 pink
• Improved returns are expected .
• Brood year escapements were relatively good in Areas 3 and 6; poor in

Area 4. 11

• 11 Outlook Units; 37 CUs
• Fraser chum
• Early information is that the 2013 escapement will continue the recent

increasing trend.

• These increases reverse a persistent 8 year decline prior to 2011.
• Body size in 2013 is being reported as “average” to “above average”

unlike the smaller bodied chum reported in 2011.

• Georgia Strait chum
• Below average returns are expected for Baynes Sound, Sunshine Coast

and most southern Strait systems.

• WCVI chum
• Below target expected for wild stocks
• Near target returns expected for enhanced stocks
• Skeena & Nass chum
• Very poor returns are expected.
• This is consistent with the recent trend.
• Yukon chum
• Above average return is expected for upper Yukon except for Porcupine.

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• In order to add some context to the Outlook, here are salmon highlights from the

thirteenth annual workshop on the state of physical, biological, and selected fishery resources of Canadian Pacific marine ecosystems.

• Off the west coast of Vancouver Island, the zooplankton community contained

more cool-water zooplankton than average, which is associated with good local survival and growth of young salmon.

• In 2012, research cruise catch rates of juvenile chum, sockeye, coho and chinook

salmon were generally higher off the west coast of Vancouver Island and in the central coast than in 2011, while they were at or above the 1998-2012 long-term average for all species.

• Because many of the juvenile sockeye caught in research trawl surveys in the

Strait of Georgia in 2012 were progeny of the record return of sockeye to the Fraser River in 2010, it was not surprising that the catch per unit effort of juvenile sockeye in the early summer survey of 2012 was the highest since regular sampling began in 1998.

• For the full report, see the Publications link on the Canadian Science Advisory

Secretariat website and look for the report under the 2013 list 13

• summary
• utlook still very preliminary
• fficial forecasts not available (sockeye in February, chinook & coho in

March)

• Some assessments programs still ongoing (coho & chum) therefore 2013

escapement estimates & age information are not available yet

• Here is some ocean condition information being considered to form the outlooks
• generally, cooler ocean conditions are positive for marine survival of

juvenile salmon

• 2010 ocean entry year
• There were mixed ocean indicators so conditions were less certain;

the conditions that juvenile salmon experienced depend on the specific time & area of ocean entry for that stock

• 2011 ocean entry year
• Sea surface measurements confirm that ocean conditions were

cooler in 2011 than in 2010

• 2012 ocean entry year
• Sea surface measurements from shore stations along the coast of

British Columbia, confirm that ocean conditions were cooler in 2012 14

than in 2011 and 2010.

• This conclusion is supported by observations of phytoplankton

communities; these too showed indicators of cooler ocean temperatures in 2012

• still, many BC salmon populations remain depressed due to low numbers of brood-

year spawners, partially attributed to poor survival and production during the mid 2000s. 14

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