= + 2 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 1 Illinois - - PDF document

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2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it

The Profitability of I llinois Agriculture: W here to from Here?

I nfluence of W eather and Technology on Corn Yields

Scott I rw in sirw in@uiuc.edu University of I llinois

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Conventional Wisdom

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Illinois Corn Yields, 1960-2006

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Yield (bu./acre) 1960-1995: +1.5 bu./yr. 1996-2006: +3.1 bu./yr. 4 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it

Illinois Corn Yields, 1960-2006

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Yield (bu./acre) 1960-1991: +1.4 bu./yr. 1992-2006: +2.0 bu./yr.

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Regression Models of Corn Yield Yield: State Average for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa Technology: Linear Time Trend Precipitation: Sep-Apr, May, June, July, August Temperature: May, June, July, August Weather Data: Monthly Average Time Period: 1960-2006

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Regression Models of Corn Yield Yield: State Average for Illinois, Indiana, Iowa Technology: Linear Time Trend Linear Time Trend Precipitation: Sep-Apr, May, June June, July , July, , August Temperature: May, June, July July, August , August Model Fit over 1960-2006:

• Illinois –

Illinois – 95% 95%

• Indiana –

Indiana – 94% 94%

• Iow

Iowa – – 94%

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Effects of Technology, 1960-2006

(assuming average w eather)

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

Illinois: +1.9 bu./yr. Indiana: +1.8 bu./yr. Iowa: +2.0 bu./yr.

8 2 0 0 7 I llinois Farm Econom ic Sum m it 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

Illinois: +1.9 bu./yr. Indiana: +1.8 bu./yr. Iowa: +2.0 bu./yr.

Effects of Technology, 1960-2006

(assuming average w eather)

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Effects of Precipitation, 1960-2006

June Precipitation

• 20
• 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Precipitation (inches) Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

x x x July Precipitation

• 20
• 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Precipitation (inches) Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

x x x

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Effects of Temperature, 1960-2006

July Temperature

• 25
• 15
• 5

5 15 25

• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 Departure From Average Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) Change In Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

August Temperature

• 25
• 15
• 5

5 15 25

• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 Departure From Average Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) Change In Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

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Are Trend Yields Increasing Faster at the State Level?

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Yield (bu./acre) Illinois Indiana Iowa

1960-1995 1996-2006 Illinois: +1.8 bu./yr. +1.9 bu./yr. Indiana: +1.8 bu./yr. +1.8 bu./yr. Iowa: +1.9 bu./yr. +2.0 bu./yr.

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New Seed Technology

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Key Illinois Weather Variables, 1960-2006

Total June-July Precipitation

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Precipitation (inches) Average = 8.0"

Average July-August Temperature

70 72 74 76 78 80 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Temperature (degrees Farenheit) Average = 74.2o

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Key Indiana Weather Variables, 1960-2006

Total June-July Precipitation

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Precipitation (inches) Average = 8.4"

Average July-August Temperature

69 71 73 75 77 79 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Temperature (degrees Farenheit) Average = 73.2o

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Key Iow a Weather Variables, 1960-2006

Total June-July Precipitation

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Precipitation (inches) Average = 8.8"

Average July-August Temperature

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Temperature (degrees Farenheit) Average = 72.9o

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The United States had so little variability in weather and grain production in the past two decades (until 1974) that an attitude of complacency had developed. There was frequent reference in the early 1970’s to the fact that technology had advanced to such a level that weather was no longer a significant factor in grain production.

• --L. Thompson, Iowa State, 1975

Have We Been Here Before?

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Alternative Trend Yield Projections to 2030 for Illinois Corn Yields

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 9 4 1 9 4 5 1 9 5 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 1 9 9 5 2 2 5 2 1 2 1 5 2 2 2 2 5 2 3 Yield (bu./acre) 1960-2006: +1.7 bu./yr. 1940-1959: +1 bu./yr. 2007-2030 +1.7 +3 +6