A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube PV seminar at UNSW Sydney, March 23 rd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube PV seminar at UNSW Sydney, March 23 rd - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Recent Results of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) 8 th Edition, March 2017 A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube PV seminar at UNSW Sydney, March 23 rd , 2017 Source: www.siemens.com/presse VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 1 |

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SLIDE 1

VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 1 | 15 March 2017 Source: www.siemens.com/presse

Recent Results of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV)

8th Edition, March 2017

  • A. Metz, M. Fischer, J. Trube

PV seminar at UNSW Sydney, March 23rd, 2017

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SLIDE 2

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 2 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 3

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 3 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 4

VDMA

ITRPV – Methodology

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 4 |

Working group today includes 40 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US

Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Review of data Preparation of publication  regional chairs Next ITRPV edition

SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEM MODULE

Parameters in main areas are discussed  Diagrams of median values

Photovoltaic Equipment

Chairs EU Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US

15 March 2017

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SLIDE 5

VDMA

Wafer thickness (multi)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 µm

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition

ITRPV 2017

Page 5 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 8th Edition 2017 – some statistics

Edition 8th 7th Contributors 40 33 Figures 60 50 Prediction quality since 2009: Silver consumption trend  well predicted and realized (Silver availability depends on world market) Wafer thickness trend  bad predicted and no progress (Poly-Si price depends on PV market development)

Review ITRPV predictions

Silver amount per cell

0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 silver per cell [g/cell]

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition

ITRPV 2017

| ITRPV 2017

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SLIDE 6

VDMA | ITRPV 2017 Page 6 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 7

VDMA

PV learning Curve

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 7 | 15 March 2017

Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments

10-1 106 107 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 0.1 1 10 100 0.1 1 10 100

average module sales price [USD 2016/Wp]

100 101 102 103 104 105

cumulative PV module shipments [MW]

historic price data LR 22.5 % ITRPV 2017

Shipments /avg. price at years end: 2016: 75 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp

  • /a shipment:

≈ 308 GWp

  • /a installation:

≈ 300 GWp 300 GWp landmark was passed! LR 21.5% (1976 …. 2016) dramatic price drop due to market situation  Comparable to 2011/2012, but faster

2012 12 / 2016 300GWp 2011

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VDMA

Price considerations

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 8 | 15 March 2017

Learning curve for module price as a function of cumutative shipments

ITRPV 2017

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module

Poly Si 26% Poly Si 12% Poly Si 24% Wafer 29% Wafer 23% Wafer 16% Cell 20% Cell 23% Cell 23% Module 25% Module 42% Module 37% share 01_2011 share 01_2016 share 01_2017

 reduction 01/2011  01/2016: ≈ 64 %  reduction 01/2016  01/2017: ≈ 36 %

(reduction 01/2011 01/2012: ≈ 40 %) Dramatic price drop during 2nd half of 2016

 Market driven drop  Poly-Si share increased again  High pressure on module manufacturers

1.59 US$ 0.58 US$ 0.37 US$

Module price break down [US$/Wp]

ITRPV 2017 0,413 0,072 0,087 0,462 0,13 0,058 0,32 0,135 0,086 0,395 0,24 0,138 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 01_2011 01_2016 01_2017 Module price (US$/Wp) Module Cell Wafer Poly Si

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SLIDE 9

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 9 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016

  • Si / Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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VDMA

Siemens FBR

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Siemens FBR

  • ther

IHS Markit data

ITRPV 2017

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 10 | 15 March 2017

Silicon – Materials: Poly Si Feedstock Technology

Poly Si price trend: E 2012: 20 US$/kg 02/ 2016: ≈14 US$/kg

86% 10%

 oversupply situation of 2016 relieved

 Siemens process will remain mainstream

FBR shows potential for cost reduction

 FBR share will be increased moderately

w/ new capacity (2016 values in line w/ IHS Markit) Other technologies (umg, epi growth, ..)  Not yet mature but available 02/ 2017: ≈16 US$/kg Trend: Share of poly-Si feedstock technology

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VDMA

Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (1)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 11 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

crystal growth per tool (mc-Si, mono-like, HPM) slurry based wire sawing relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] diamond wire based

ITRPV 2017 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 [µm]

Kerf loss for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing [µm] TTV for slurry-based wire sawing [µm] TTV for diamond wire sawing [µm]

diamond wire sawing advantage:  enable faster kerf reduction No big change in thickness variation is expected  Throughput increase in crystallization/wafering will continue Trend: Kerf loss / TTV Trend: throughput crystallization/ wafering

ITRPV 2017 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 [kg] mc-Si mono-Si

Gen 6 Gen 7 Gen 8

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VDMA

Wafer – Processes: wafering technology (2)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 12 | 15 March 2017

diamond wire wafering now mainstream for mono-Si  Throughut 2x – 3x faster than slurry based For mc-Si change to diamond wire is ongoing  main challenge: texturing For mono-Si For mc-Si

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds

  • ther

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds

  • ther

ITRPV 2017

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VDMA

Wafer – Processes: texturing of mc-Si wafers

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 13 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 standard acidic etching Wet Nano-texture technology Reactive Ion Etching (RIE)

  • Acidic texturing is:

 mature and high throughput process  changes in “standard” will apear

  • Next step:

 wet nano texturing, esp. for diamond wire

  • RIE share is expected to increase “but”

 no cost efficient alternative  Wet processing remains mainstream in mc-Si texturing Trend: market share of mc-Si texturing technologies

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VDMA

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th ITRPV Edition

Waferthickness [µm]

2009 2015 2017

Wafer – Product: Wafer thickness trend

| Author ITRPV 2017

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 [µm]

Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology

Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction

180 µm mc-Si preferred thickness since 2009 Thickness reduction expected to start for mono-Si

  • cost reduction potential
  • diamond wire will support

New module technologies should enable thickness reduction Mono-Si wafer: thickness reduction starts

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VDMA

Wafer – Product: market share of material types

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 15 | 15 March 2017

multi mono

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 p-type mc p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono ITRPV 2017

IHS Markit data

 Casted material is still dominating today with > 60%  Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type)

casted-Si domination is not for ever:  Trend of last years will continue

  • Casting technology:

 HP mc-Si will replace standard mc-Si  no “come back” of mono-like expected

  • Mono technology:

 n-type material share will increase  n- + p-type market share today ≈ 35% (2016 values are in line w/ IHS Markit)

  • p-type material is expected to stay dominant

 mainly due to progress in LID regeneration

Trend: share of c-Si material types

| ITRPV 2017

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VDMA

Wafer – market share of wafer dimensions (new)

| ITRPV 2017 Page 16 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm²

Trend: mono-Si Trend: mc-Si Fast switch to new format:  New mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm²  Larger formats are upcoming Transition to new format in 2017  Expected new mainstream: 156.75 x 156.75 mm²  Larger formats may occur after 2020

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SLIDE 17

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 17 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2016

  • Si / Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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VDMA

ITRPV 2017 20 40 60 80 100 120 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell]

100 200 300 400 2009 2015 2017

Remaining Silver / Cell [mg]

2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

Cell – Materials: Silver (Ag) per cell

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 18 | 15 March 2017

Good prediction of Ag reduction continues

2009 300 mg 2016 100 mg reached 2017 90 mg expected  Ag accounts in 2016 for ≈ 8% of cell conversion cost

  • Ag reduction is mandatory and continues
  • delays substitution by Cu or other material

No break through for lead free pastes so far  Market introduction depends on performance

2016: 100mg  ≈ 21 t / GWp @ 19.6% 548 $/kg  ≈ 1.1 $cent/ Wp* * avg. cell efficiency 19.6 % ≈ 4.8 Wp/cell

Ag will stay main metallization in c-Si technology

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VDMA

Cell – Processes: cell production tool throughputs

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 19 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000 11.000 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 [Wafer/h] chemical processes, progessive scenario chemical processes, evolutional scenario themal processes, progressive scenario thermal processes, evolutional scenario metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario metallisation & classification processes, evolutional scenario

Trend: tool throughput increase + synchronization of frontend/backend Wet benches are leading today with > 7800 wf/h  Throughput increase continues Challenge: increase throughput + Improve OEE Two throughput scenarios: Progressive = new high throughput tools Evolutionary = continuous improvement

  • f existing tools (debottlenecking,

upgrades…)

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VDMA

Cell – Processes: in line monitoring in cell production (new)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 20 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 automatc optical inspection (AOI) after front/back silver & back Aluminum print electroluminescence (EL) imaging infrared (IR) imaging for hotspot detection ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027

  • ptical quality control after antireflectioncoation (AR) coating

incomming wafer inspection sheet resistance measurement after diffusion

Trend: in-line process control backend/test Trend: in-line process control frontend AOI is widely used in printing 2016: 70% Inspection at cell testing:  EL use will expand (currently 5% only)  IR inspection is not widely used SiNx quality control has constant share – 50%  Incoming wafer inspection will exceed 30% after 2021  Emitter sheet rho in-line control will increase

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VDMA

Cell – processes: c-Si metallization technologies

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 21 | 15 March 2017

Different front side metalization technologies

World market share [%] ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 screen printing stencil printing direct plating on Si plating on seed layer World market share [%] ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 sctreen printing plating PVD (evaporation/sputtering)

Front side metallization technologies Rear side metallization technologies Screen printing remains main stream metallization technology  Plating is expected for rear and front side  For rear side PVD methods may appear

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VDMA

Cell – processes: finger width / number of bus bars / bifaciality

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 22 | 15 March 2017 ITRPV 2017

10 20 30 40 50 60 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 [µm] Finger width Alignment precision ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 monofacial c-Si bifacial c-Si ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 3 busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars busbarless

Trend: Finger width / alignment precision

Trend: number of bus bars (BB) Trend: market share of bifacial cells Front side grid finger width reduction continues 2016: < 50µm reached!  Enables Ag reduction, requires increase of number of busbars  4BB are mainstream – 3 BB will disappear Alignment precision will improve to <10µm @3 sig.  Selective emitters + Bifacial cells require good alignment  Bifacial cells will increase market share

monofacial cells

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VDMA

Cell – processes: recombination current densities

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 23 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 50 100 150 200 250 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Recombination current [fA/cm2] J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono J0 front p-type material J0 rear p-type material J0 bulk n-type mono SHJ or back contact J0 front/rear n-type mono SHJ or back contact

 p- type: reducing recombination losses is on a good way  n-type: overcomes p-type bulk material limitations

J0bulk will be further reduced by optimizing crystallization

2010 2016

 p-type mc-Si: 650  240 fA/cm²

  • further reductions will appear:

2016 2017 2027

 p-type mc-Si: 240  180

 32 fA/cm²

 p-type mono-Si: 125  100  30 fA/cm²  n-type mono-Si: 25 = 25

 15 fA/cm² J0front / J0rear

 Further reductions by > 50% to < 50 fA/cm²

 p-type improvements are limited at the front side (i.e. need of improved diffusion / new pastes)  Wide use of rear side passivation concepts

Trend: J0bulk, J0front, J0rear

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VDMA

Cell – processes: emitter formation for low J0front

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 24 | 15 March 2017 ITRPV 2017

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Ohms / square

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by laser doping selective emitter by etch back homogenous emitter by ion implantation selective emitter by ion implantation

Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies Essential parameter for J0front  95…100 Ω/□ are standard today  Increase to 135 Ω/□ is predicted  Challenge for tools and front pastes Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion  selective doping: etch back or laser doping  Ion implant stays niche

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VDMA

Cell – processes: technology for low J0rear

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 25 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 PECVD AlOx + capping layer ALD AlOx + capping layer PECVD SiONx

Trend: rear side passivation technologies Rear side passivation is mandatory for PERC  PECVD AlOx will stay mainstream  ALD will hold up to 10 %  SiONx will disappear ITRPV prediction for J0rear were good

  • BSF cannot deliver required low J0rear
  • PERC takes over
  • competing technologies in PERC

 PECVD Al2O3 + capping  Al2O3 ALD + capping  PECVD SiONx/SiNy etc.

2009

2017

780  120 fA/cm²

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VDMA

Cell – Products: cell technologies / cell efficiency trends

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 26 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 stabilized cell efficiency

BSF cells p-type mc-Si BSF cells p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-Si PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si

Trend: market share of cell concepts

2016: PERC ≈15% (in line w/ IHS Markit)

Trend: stabilized cell efficiencies;  p-type PERC outperforms

BSF PERC

  • ther

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2016 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 BSF PERC/PERL/PERT Si-herterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandem ITRPV 2017 IHS Markit data

Si-tandem

PERC is gaining market share (20% 2017)  BSF share is shrinking  Back contact + HJ: slow increasing share  Si tandem: under development p-type mono PERC will reach n-type performance mc-Si PERC is about to outperform mono BSF  n-type IBC + HJ for highest efficiency applications  stabilized >21% p-type mono PERC is in production PERC

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VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 27 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP – Results 2016

  • Si / Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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VDMA

Module – Materials: front cover material

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 28 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 non-structured & non-coated front glass AR-coated front glass deeply structured front glass ITRPV 2017 5 10 15 20 25 30 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 [years]

Trend: market share of front cover material Trend: lifetime of AR coating AR coated glass is mainstream AR coating lifetime will increase to 25 years

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VDMA

Module – Processes: interconnection technology

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 29 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 lead-containing soldering lead-free soldering conductive adhesive ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Cu-ribbon Cu-wires structured foils shingled/overlapping cell

Trend: cell interconnection technology Trend: cell connection material Expanding market share: lead free soldering + conductive adhesives Ribbons/wires will remain most widely used cell connection material

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Module – Products: module power outlook

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 30 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 104% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 acidic textured multi-Si alcaline textured mono-Si

ITRPV 2017 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Module Power [Wp] BSF p-type mc-Si BSF p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT p-type mono-Si PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si

Trend: cell to module power ratio (CTM) Trend: module power of 60 cell (156x156mm²)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 30 | 15 March 2017

CTM will increase to > 100%  Acidic texturing has higher CTM 60 cell modules 2017: Mono p-type PERC: 300 W are standard Multi p-type PERC: 285 W are common

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VDMA

Module – Products: framed modules and J-Boxes

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 31 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 framed frameless ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Aluminum Plastic

  • ther

Trend: share of frameless c-Si modules Trend: share of smart J-Boxes

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 standard J-Box without additional function microinverter (DC/AC) DC/DC converter

Al-frames will stay mainstream  frameless for niche markets Standard J-Box remains mainstream  Smart J-Boxes for niche applications

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VDMA

Module – Products: module size

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 32 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 full cell half cell quarter cell ITRPV 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 60-cell 72-cell 96-cell

  • ther

Trend: share of cell dimensions Trend: share of module size (full cell) Full cell will remain main stream half cell implementation started! quarter cells – currently a niche Big is beautiful: 72 cell module share will increase 60 cell modules  mainstream until 2020

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VDMA

Module – Products: module reliability (new)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 33 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 degradation [%] warranty [years] Performance waranty [years] Product waranty [years] Initial degardation after 1st year of operation [%] Degradation per year during performance waranty [%]

Trend: warranty conditions and degradation for c-Si modules Product warranty will remain 10 years Performance warranty 2024+: 30 years degradation: Initial / linear/year 2016: 3.0 % / 0.7% 2017: 2.5 % / 0.68% 2019+: 2.0 % / 0.68% 2021+: 2.0 % / 0.60%

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VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 34 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP – Results 2016

  • Si / Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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VDMA

Systems – Balance of system (BOS) for power plants

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 35 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 55% 45% 36% 33% 31% 29% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 13% 12% 11% 10% 8% 8% 12% 11% 10% 10% 9% 8% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 9% 100% 87% 75% 70% 64% 58% 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground ITRPV 2017 59% 53% 45% 43% 40% 38% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 11%

100% 94% 84% 81% 77% 70%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground

Trend: BOS in Europe and US Trend: BOS in Asia Module costs still significant Costs in Asia are assumed to be significant lower

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Systems – Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE)

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 36 | 15 March 2017

Trend: LCoE progress – a minimum approach

ITRPV 2017 0,077 0,073 0,065 0,063 0,059 0,054 0,051 0,049 0,043 0,042 0,039 0,036 0,039 0,037 0,033 0,032 0,030 0,027 970 911,8 814,8 785,7 746,9 679 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,10 0,12 2016 2017 2019 2021 2024 2027 Assumed system price [USD/KWp] LCOE [USD/kWh] 1000 kWh/KWp 1500 kWh/kWp 2000 kWh/kWp assumed system price

LCoE depends strongly on local conditions

 ~5.7 US$ct/kWh lowest auction bidder in GER 2016** (avg. 7.7 $ct)  ~2.42 US$ct/kWh possible near Abu Dhabi* today

* http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-in-deal-to-build-1.2GWp-solar-plant-in-Abu-Dhabi ** http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/danish-bidders-win-cross-border-pv-tender

System prices  2016: 970 $ / kWp  2027: <680 $ / kWp LCoE  2016: 3.9 ….. 8 $ct/kWh (GER avg. 7.7 $ct**)  2027: 2.7 ….. 5 $ct/kWh are ralistic

  • System live times of 25 years are assumed

Next steps to further reduce LCoE:  extended service live to 30 years (supported by performance warranty trend)  further efficiency improvements + cost down measures

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SLIDE 37

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2017 Page 37 | 15 March 2017

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRVP – Results 2016

  • Si / Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 38

VDMA

Outlook: in detail view at PV learning curve

| ITRPV 2017 Page 38 | 15 March 2017

10-1 106 107 10-1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 0.1 1 10 100 0.1 1 10 100 average module sales price [USD 2016/Wp] 100 101 102 103 104 105 cumulative PV module shipments [MW]

historic price data LR 22.5% LR 39.0% (2006-2016) ITRPV 2017

103 107 0.1 1 10 0.1 1 10

average module sales price [USD 2016/Wp]

LR 26.2% - per piece learning

104 105 106

historic price data LR 22.5% LR 39.0% (2006-2016) Wp learning only (2010 -2016) LR 6.8% - Wp learning only per piece learning only (2010-2016) ITRPV 2017

1976-2016: LR= 22.5% 2006-2016: LR= 39.0% ITRPV finding 2010-2016: Wp learning ~ 7% (continually) per piece learning ~26% (market influenced)  Learning was and will always be a combination of: efficiency increase + continues cost reduction per piece = cost reduction of PV generated electricity But how will PV proceed in future? Approach: logistic growth  exemplified by nature:

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SLIDE 39

VDMA

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

plant hight [cm] days after seeding

growth of a Tomato

Tombolino

Spreading of PV – like a plants life: An Experiment

10/26/2016 ITRPV 2017 Page 23 |

PV experiment: Investigation of the growth of a Tomato plant*  watching milestones in a tomato plant’s live

* Plant grown in Thalheim April – July 2016

shooting singulation start fertilizing being in flower developing fruits Parameter set: G G = = 1.12 m k k = = 0.07; c c = = 67 d

𝑶 𝒖 = 𝑯 𝟐 + 𝒇𝒍(𝒅−𝒖)

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SLIDE 40

VDMA

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

plant hight [cm] days after seeding

growth of a Tomato (Tombolino)

Tombolino

Spreading of PV – like a plants life: An Experiment

15 March 2017 | Author: ITRPV 2016 Page 23 |

PV experiment: Investigation of the growth of a Tomato plant*  PV is starting

* Plant grown in Thalheim April – July 2016

shooting singulation start fertilizing being in flower developing fruits

PV is at the beginning

ITRPV industry outlook:  future PV Installation and  future PV production requirements

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

plant hight [cm] days after seeding

growth of a Tomato (Tombolino)

Aproximation Parameter set: G G = = 1.12 m k k = = 0.07; c c = = 67 d

𝑶 𝒖 = 𝑯 𝟐 + 𝒇𝒍(𝒅−𝒖)

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SLIDE 41

VDMA

PV market trend until 2050: logistic growth

| ITRPV 2017 Page 41 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 2017 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000 Annual Market [GWp] Global Installations [GWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments

Approach: 3 scenarios for 190 different countries in 4 regions Asia / America / Africa / EU ITRPV finding:

  • Shipments until 2016

slightly above all scenarios

  • Annual PV market:

335 GWp/a to 800 GWp/a

 Replacement rate = key to

  • vercome down cycles

 Evolutionary technology

development works for all scenarios Scenario 3 “high”: 9.2 TWp/ 14.3 PWh (< 10 % primary energy)

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SLIDE 42

VDMA

Summary

| ITRPV 2017 Page 42 | 15 March 2017

  • Silicon PV will remain a fast developing technology
  • Further reductions of c-Si PV manufacturing cost are possible

 without sacrificing quality and reliability  cell efficiency improvements will support the cost reduction

  • Silicon PV will significantly contribute to future power supply
  • We are just at the beginning of PV-market development
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SLIDE 43

VDMA

Thank you for your attention!

Page 43 | 15 March 2017 | ITRPV 2017 Source: www.siemens.com/presse

Contact us: jutta.trube@vdma.org Full version of 7th edition available at: www.itrpv.net