A re -appraisal of the formulation of and empirical evaluation of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fernando Riosmena Population Program and Geography Department University of Colorado at Boulder

“A re-appraisal of the formulation of and empirical evaluation of migration theories.”

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America

A new Era of transnational migrations (& transnationalism)?

 Slowdown in Mexico-US, continued migration/displacement from NTCA  Still, large Mexico–U.S. flows driven by as many –if not more varied– motivations

than previously, incl. to some extent violence & climate-related migration

 Three ‘caging’ effects in Mesoamerica-US migration dynamics  Reduced (voluntary) return from US  Forced/voluntary return migrant “resettlement” not in original sending areas, but

in Mexican borderlands & main urban centers

 Larger, slower, more multifaceted transit migrations across L. America that are

becoming “slow-floating,” more settled

First caging effect in Mexico – U.S. migration: reduced voluntary return by people otherwise presumably willing to circulate

Source: Massey, D.S., Durand, J. and Pren, K. 2015. “Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 41(7):1015-1040.

Second caging effect in (Mexico – US) migration: deportees (& their relatives) not settling in original sending communities, but disproportionately doing so in the Borderlands & in major cities.

Source: Giorguli-Saucedo & Gutiérrez(2012) based on 2000 & 2010 Mexican Census data.

Second caging effect in (Mexico – US) migration: deportees (& their relatives) not settling in original sending communities, but disproportionately doing so in the Borderlands & in major cities.

Source: Giorguli-Saucedo & Gutiérrez(2012) based on 2000 & 2010 Mexican Census data.

Third caging effect in L. America – U.S. migration: longer, more multifaceted transit with settlement “along the way.”

Source: Fernández Casanueva & Rodríguez (2016).

Migration studies for a new Era

 These changing dynamics, plus…  …increasingly heterogeneous multi-staged migrations…  …asynchronous migration transitions across places…  …More complex migration systems…  …highlight/exacerbate substantive & methodological challenges in…  …measurement of migration,  …its drivers, &  …translocal & transnational social spaces it creates

Migration studies for a new Era

 Methodologically,…  …how to capture some of these migrations at all/much more substantially?  …how to capture them in all of their complexity?  Substantively,…  Better formulation & empirical test of migration theories  Stronger links between international, forced, & internal migration studies  Stronger theoretical & empirical links between classical migration theories (e.g., in

Population Studies) & (anthro-/sociological) literature on transnationalism

Migration studies for a new Era: substantive challenges

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.

• 1. In light of caging effects: how to assess validity of theories when

people are settling when/where they did not mean to, or not returning when they would have otherwise given their initial migration motivations?

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.

(1st caging effect in Mexico – U.S. migration complicates understanding of whether e.g., NELM is less relevant today…)

Source: Massey, D.S., Durand, J. and Pren, K. 2015. “Border Enforcement and Return Migration by Documented and Undocumented Mexicans.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 41(7):1015-1040.

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Theories explaining the initiation of flows: location and social complexity scale

Neoclassical Individuals Families Broader social structures New economics of labor migration Markets Institutions Networks World-systems Segmented labor market New economics of labor migration (decision sphere) Neoclassical (decision sphere) Historical- structural

Social complexity scale Factors in sending areas Factors in destinations

Source: Pries (2001)

Three caging effects may also question relevance of intended motivations & time horizon of migration on the formation of particular transnational social spaces

• 2. To better understand decline in Mexico-US migration, theories of

the “perpetuation/continuation” of migration need to be reformulated to consider ways in which prior migration generates feedbacks that contribute to a subsequent decline in flows

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.

Economic slowdown as a result of the global financial crisis was a major catalyzer for slowdown in Mexico-US migration…

550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005/2 2005/3 2005/4 2006/1 2006/2 2006/3 2006/4 2007/1 2007/2 2007/3 2007/4 2008/1 2008/2 2008/3 2008/4 2009/1 2009/2 2009/3 2009/4 2010/1 2010/2 2010/3 2010/4 2011/1 2011/2 2011/3 2011/4 2012/1 2012/2 2012/3 2012/4 2013/1 2013/2 2013/3 2013/4 2014/1 2014/2 2014/3 2014/4 2015/1 2015/2 2015/3

Job Gains in construction in the U.S. International out-migration

Source: Villarreal (2017) based on ENOE data.

…besides other possible latent factors in (some) sending areas, including demographic, economic, and ideational change.

Source: Hanson & McIntosh (2010)

…besides other possible latent factors in (some) sending areas, including demographic, economic, and ideational change.

Source: Hanson & McIntosh (2010)

However, clear possibility of negative, migration-fueled social multipliers (including those operating through immigration policy)…

Source: Massey, D.S. and Pren, K. 2012. “Unintended Consequences of US Immigration Policy: Explaining the Post-1965 Surge from Latin America.” Population and Development Review 38(1):1-29.

Theories explaining cumulative causation of flows (all migration-fueled): location & spatial scale

Social capital theory (CC) Network expansion Institutional theory CA: migration culture Social labeling Δ origin-destination wage gaps *Cumulative causation Individuals Families Broader social structures Markets Institutions Networks

Social scale Factors in sending areas Factors in destinations

Land use changes → inequality, “displacement”

Other possible mechanisms of negative cumulative causation

 The limits of social capital  In resources, and thus in growth of “sources”  e.g., due to worse opportunities in destinations (& negative externalities)  (Bauer 2008; De Haas 2010; Menjívar 2000; Portes 1998)  Other mechanisms that explain declines, sometimes migration-fueled  Closing of wage gaps, better market & institutional functioning  Lower inequality in sending areas (e.g., due to redistributive policies, programs)  Positive social multipliers of migration on sending community development  Weakening of “culture of migration” (e.g., by shifts in youth aspirations)  Biggest challenge to identify these mechanisms and role of migration therein

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• 3. Better understanding of contemporary (rise &) decline in Mexico-

US migration (and in nations that have not approached to net zero) may advance theoretical formulation & empirical testing of migration stages/transitions

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.

A broader theoretical & empirical vision could contribute to a better systematic understanding of the migration “life cycle”

Source: de Haas, H. (2010) The Internal Dynamics of Migration Processes: A Theoretical Inquiry, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 36:10, 1587-1617

Also need to improve knowledge

• f factors leading to “takeoff” of

migration at local, micro-regional, national, and regional scales

Source: Lindstrom, D. & A. López Ramírez. (2010). Pioneers and Followers: Migrant Selectivity and the Development of U.S. Migration Streams in Latin

• America. Annals of the American Academy of Political and

Social Sciences. 630:53-77.

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Source: De Haas, H. (2010). Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international

• migration. Working

Paper No. 24. Oxford: International Migration Institute.

This inquiry would benefit from being done in conjunction with that trying to understand transition of (nations) from being countries of emigration to being destinations (for nationals & foreigners)

?

• 4. Era of extended transit calls for stronger theoretical and empirical

integration between international and internal migration studies.

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.

Source King, R. & R. Skeldon. (2010) “'Mind the Gap!' Integrating Approaches to Internal and International Migration.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. p. 1-28.

• 5. Eras of decline, deportation, & extended transit call for better

theoretical & empirical integration between (quantitative) international migration theory testing & transnationalism scholarship

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.

Some areas of cross-pollination with clear potential

 Clear relation between transnational social spaces & cumulative causation  But when are transnational social spaces created by ~massive flows?  Are they always?  More (quantitative) empirical work on understanding formation (& decline)

• f different (migration-driven) transnational space constellations

 Is deportee nonreturn to original sending areas expanding or contracting

transnational social spaces created by original emigration out of these places?

 What is extended transit doing to transnational social spaces?

Thank you.

Shifting Contexts and Patterns of Migration - Comparing Europe and Central-North America.