Accuracy of Markov State Models (MSMs) and Hidden Markov Models - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

accuracy of markov state models msms and hidden markov
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Accuracy of Markov State Models (MSMs) and Hidden Markov Models - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Accuracy of Markov State Models (MSMs) and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) Frank No (FU Berlin) frank.noe@fu-berlin.de Discretization Backward propagator Spectral decomposition Processes: Eigenvalues / timescales i-1 Prinz et al, JCP 134 ,


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Frank Noé (FU Berlin)

frank.noe@fu-berlin.de

Accuracy of Markov State Models (MSMs) and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs)

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Discretization

Eigenvalues / timescales κi-1 Backward propagator Processes: Spectral decomposition Prinz et al, JCP 134, 174105 (2011)

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Discretization

Prinz et al, JCP 134, 174105 (2011)

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Two flavors of discretization errors

Projection error

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Hidden Markov Model

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Hidden Markov Model

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Hidden Markov Model

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Hidden Markov Model

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Case 1: coarse discretization

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MSM: Implied timescales

Case 1: coarse discretization

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MSM: Chapman-Kolmogorov Test

Case 1: coarse discretization

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Case 1: coarse discretization

HMM: Implied timescales

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Case 1: coarse discretization

HMM: Chapman-Kolmogorov Test

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HMM at lag 40:

Case 1: coarse discretization

Why does the HMM work better than the MSM? MSM at lag 40:

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Case 2: bad projection

Probability density Energy surface Brownian dynamics simulation

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Funding

Cecilia Clementi (Rice) Christof Schütte (FU Berlin) Eric Vanden-Eijnden (Courant Institut NY) Thomas Weikl (MPI Potsdam) Marcus Sauer, Sören Doose (Uni Würzburg)

Collaborations

Vijay Pande (Stanford) Katja, Faelber, Oliver Daumke (MDC) John Chodera (MSKCC NY) Gianni de Fabritiis (Barcelona)

Acknowledgements

Positions available frank.noe@fu-berlin.de

Funding