Activities and Plans in the US Paul M. Grant W2AGZ Technologies San - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Activities and Plans in the US Paul M. Grant W2AGZ Technologies San - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 15, 2022 217 likes •841 views

Activities and Plans in the US Paul M. Grant W2AGZ Technologies San Jose, CA USA A Sober Assessment of Opportunities and Realities http://www.w2agz.com/BD_3TUW09.htm New Holland & The Hudson Valley Barents Baltus (1659) > Baltus

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Activities and Plans in the US

Paul M. Grant W2AGZ Technologies San Jose, CA USA “A Sober Assessment of Opportunities and Realities”

http://www.w2agz.com/BD_3TUW09.htm

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New Holland & The Hudson Valley

Barents Baltus (1659) > Baltus Barents van Kleeck (?)(1702) > Poughkeepsie

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US Electric Power 101

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  • ~$2 trillion total asset value
  • $344 billion annual revenues
  • 142 million customers
  • 3273 utilities

Without electric power the $14.3 trillion U.S. economy would come to a halt

‐ Electricity Today ‐

The Crown Jewel of the US Economy

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NYC circa 1890s

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Fathers of American Electric Power

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The US Electrical System

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US Electricity Generation Sources

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US Electricity Flow ‐ 2007

1 Quad = 0.29 TkWh US Generation Capacity = 1.1 TW Gross Generation = 4.33 GkWh (T&D Losses)/(End Use) = 10%

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The US Transmission Grid(s)

  • 300,000 km
  • 500 companies
  • 10% Losses
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North American HVDC

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Pacific Intertie

  • HVDC, +/‐ 500 kV, 3.1 kA, 3.1 GW
  • 1,362 km
  • ~50% of LA Power Consumption
  • Converter/Inverter Losses ~ 5%
  • Ohmic Losses ~ 10%

Celilo I/C Station “A Mountain of Silicon”

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NERC Interconnects

Source: DOE 2006 National Electric Transmission Study

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The Grid:

A Journey Though the Heart of Our Electrified World

By Phillip F. Schewe Joseph Henry Press, 2007 (Buy It!) Reviewed by Paul M. Grant:

Plugged into the matrix

The rise and potential fall of the US electricity grid

Nature 447, 145 (2007)

http://www.w2agz.com/Publications/Book%20Reviews/06%20%282007%29%20Plugged%20Into%20the%20Matrix.pdf

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Where Can We Use Superconductivity?

Potentially Everywhere

…maybe

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Superconductivity Act of 1988

DOE Program: ~ 20 Years @ ~ $50 M/yr = $1 B

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HTSC Utility Market

10 More Years!

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2010 DOE OED&ER Budget Request

?

WOW !

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Wiring the World with Copper Oxides

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HTSC Power Technology is Here

  • …and it works!

– …perhaps still a little pricey, though

  • …so where’s the demand?
  • …what needs to be fixed?
  • …why isn’t is being used?

– …would it help if the wire/tape were free?

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Projected 2008 Congested Paths in the Eastern Interconnection

Source: DOE 2006 National Electric Transmission Study

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Western Interconnection

Source: DOE 2006 National Electric Transmission Study

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Real‐Life Power Flows

Can we defeat (macroscopically) Kirchhoff's Laws?

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Chaos on the Grid

Business as usual Business when a crowbar is thrown across the lines

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How many 9’s?

  • Average rms Voltage = 116.25 volts
  • Deviation = +/- 3.0 volts
  • Percentage = ~ 3.5%
  • Not Exactly “Five 9’s”

“Easily accommodated by most PC power supplies…no problem.”

07/25/04 3:30‐6:00 PM, Sunday, SJ, CA 95120‐‐W2AGZ Server Voltage

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San Francisco ‘00 Chicago ‘99 New Orleans ‘99 Atlanta ‘99 Delaware ‘99 New York ‘99 Detroit ‘00 West Coast ’96

18 18 17

San Francisco ‘00 Chicago ‘99 New Orleans ‘99 Atlanta ‘99 New York ‘99 Detroit ‘00 West Coast ’96 Northern California ‘01 Delaware ‘99 Texas ‘03

Blackouts

Northeast ‘03

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Northeast 8/14/03

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As Night Falls…

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The Party Begins…

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…and Continues…

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It Gets Better…

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and Better…

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The Morning After

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Viva New York!

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Can “New” Transmission Technology Help?

  • Yes, but probably not superconductivity in a

big way, at least for a while.

  • More likely, “smart” grid stuff will come first

– HVDC cables and lines – FACTS to increase present corridor capacity by 30% – IT and communications plus an “OS/360” to more effectively and efficiently management power flows

  • P. M. Grant, DOE Presentation, 2004
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Financials

$750 M ($400 M “VC”, $350 M “Futures”)

  • Loan Payment (4%, 40 yrs, 750 M$) = 35 M$/yr
  • Labor, Overhead, Maintenance = 5 M$/yr
  • Tariff =

0.5 ¢/kWh

  • Profit (NOI) @ 50% Capacity =

4 M$/yr

  • Profit (NOI) @ Full Capacity =

48 M$/yr

Specifications

2-1000 MW HVDC Bipolar Circuits

  • Circuit 1: 130 miles, Greene County → Bronx County
  • Circuit 2: 140 miles, Albany County → New York County
  • Each Circuit: +/- 500 kV, 1000 A Bipolar (2 cables ea.)

Why didn’t it go forward?

Wire C/P = 100 $/kA×m HTSC Cost = $87 M

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Sayerville, NJ → Levittown LI, NY ‐ 600 MW (+/‐ 250 kV, 1200 A) ‐ 65 miles (105 km) ‐ $400 M ‐ 2007 Pirelli (Prysmian) Energy Cables $190 M T 77 K C/P $/kA×m Cost ($M) Cu 7 1.8 HTSC 100 25.1

Financials 40 yrs @ 4%: $ 20M LOM: 1 M NOI (100%): 5 M

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So Where’s the “Gold Rush” to Superconductivity?

  • What’s the analogy to the Erie Canal,

Railroads, REA, TVA, Interstate Highways that

  • pened the country to economic

development?

– Capacity? Possibly – Reliability? Maybe – Power Quality? Nah

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1250 Miles 4 GW 460 Miles 500 kV

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“Superconduct-ress”

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  • Mr. Electric Utility Good Ol’ Boy
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Miss Same Old Technology

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Together Forever?

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