ARIZONA insert it again. Economic Update & Outlook ECONOMIC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ARIZONA insert it again. Economic Update & Outlook ECONOMIC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 07, 2023 291 likes •516 views

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SLIDE 1

ARIZONA

Economic Update & Outlook

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ECONOMIC CLUB OF PHOENIX

Lee.mcpheters@asu.edu

May 8, 2014

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SLIDE 2
  • Historically A Growth Leader
  • But Recession Hit Earlier, Harder
  • Out of the Woods? Not Yet!
  • Long Term Outlook Positive

Arizona’s Economy Bottomed Out in 2010 – 4 Years Ago!

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SLIDE 3

Arizona Indicators

2013 2014 2015

Annual Percent Change

Employment 2.1 2.4 2.5 Personal Income 2.7 4.0 4.5 Population 1.2 1.4 1.5

ARIZONA

Economic Forecast

  • W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU, based on data available May 8, 2014
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SLIDE 4

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  • The U.S. has regained 99% of

jobs lost in recession

  • Arizona has regained 56% of

jobs lost in recession

  • Metro Phoenix has regained

63% of jobs lost in recession

Slow Recovery of Lost Jobs

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SLIDE 5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

U.S. Has Regained 99% of Lost Jobs

Only 113,000 Jobs for Full Recovery

  • U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted, April 2014

8.7 Million U.S. Jobs Lost (6.3%)

Peak 138 million Jan. 2008

8.6 Mil. Jobs Regained (99%)

  • Feb. 2010 Bottom
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SLIDE 6
  • U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted, March 2014

Arizona Has Regained 56% of Lost Jobs 136,200 Jobs (44%) Still to Recover

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Peak 2,687,000 Oct. 2007

  • Sept. 2010 Bottom

312,600 Arizona Jobs Lost (12%) 176,400 Jobs Regained (56%)

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SLIDE 7

Arizona Industry Job Loss % Regained

Total All Jobs Lost

412,000 43%

Construction

133,000 12%

Administrative Support

67,000 61%

Retail Trade

45,000 30%

Manufacturing

40,000 17%

Financial Activities

23,000 102%

Food Service

17,000 119%

Local Government

32,000 49%

State Government

17,000 38%

Arizona Jobs Lost & Regained

  • U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted, March 2014
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SLIDE 8

Health Care Employment in Arizona (and U.S.) is Recession-Resistant

Health Care Jobs (Right Scale) All Arizona Jobs (Left Scale)

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SLIDE 9

2

States Ranked by Percent Change

9 4 6 44 11 5 45 3 10 7

Top 10 Growth States

  • U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

1 14 8

Arizona 10th in Job Growth in 2013

(AZ Jobs Up by 2.1% - 25 yr. Average is 3.9%)

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SLIDE 10

Top Ten Fastest Growing Metros

  • 1. Riverside
  • 6. Seattle
  • 2. San Francisco
  • 7. Phoenix
  • 3. Denver
  • 8. Dallas
  • 4. Houston
  • 9. Los Angeles
  • 5. Orlando
  • 10. Miami

Phoenix 7th in Job Growth (8 of 10 Metros From West)

Percent Growth Non-Farm Employment 2013 vs. 2012

  • U. S. Bureau Labor Statistics, 28 Metro Areas with > 1 mill. Jobs
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SLIDE 11

Myth or Fact?

Most New Jobs are in Lower Wage Industries

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SLIDE 12

Industry AZ Share US Share

  • Admin. Support

20% 15%

Financial Activities

16% 4%

Health Care

13% 18%

Food Service

13% 17%

Construction

13% 8%

Retail Trade

7% 11%

Professional/Technical

5% 10%

Sources of AZ & US New Jobs

  • U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & W. P. Carey School, 2013
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SLIDE 13

Arizona Creating More Middle, Higher Wage Jobs Vs. Overall U. S. Economy

42% 28% 22% 40% 33% 23% Lower ¡Wage Middle ¡Wage Higher ¡Wage

USA Arizona

Note: Lower Wage = $40,000 or less; Middle Wage = $41,00 - $60,000; Higher Wage = $61,000

  • $85,000 based on annual industry wages from Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

for Arizona, 2012 ; new jobs from Current Employment Survey, 2013

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SLIDE 14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

127,500 130,500 40,100

  • 56,900
  • 189,900
  • 46,800

26,000 51,400 51,700 61,000

Arizona Department of Administration and W. P. Carey School of Business

Arizona Employment: 2014

2 More Years to Regain 136,200 Lost Jobs

Annual Employment Change ¡

Arizona Job Growth: 2.1% in 2013 Forecast

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SLIDE 15

4 2 7 1

10

Arizona Ranked 18th in Personal

Income Growth (2.7%) in 2013

  • U. S. States Ranked by

Percent Change 2013

18

  • U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 11 44 8 3 21 9 5 48 16

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SLIDE 16

4 2 7 1

10

Arizona Ranked 8th (1.2%) in

Population Growth in 2013

  • U. S. States Ranked by

Percent Change 2013

8

  • U. S. Census Bureau

3 5 11 6 9 12 15 19 20 47

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SLIDE 17

1 7 3 2 5 10 9 4 8

29 States in Red Lost Domestic Population to 21 States in Green

Arizona 6th in Domestic Migration In 2013 – Down from 3rd in 2012

6

Alaska Hawaii

U.S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 18

Top Ten Metro Destinations: 2013

  • 1. Houston (55,620)
  • 6. San Antonio (22,392)
  • 2. Dallas (32,641)
  • 7. Charlotte (21,382)
  • 3. Phoenix (32,014)
  • 8. Nashville (17,975)
  • 4. Denver (26,536)
  • 9. Seattle (17,926)
  • 5. Austin (25,908
  • 10. Orlando (17,316)

Phoenix 3rd as Domestic Migration Destination

(Gained 96,000 in 2006)

  • U. S. Census Bureau
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SLIDE 19

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2.6 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4

Forecast

2014 Population Growth: 1.4%

Not Enough for Robust Recovery

Annual Percent Change ¡

  • W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU & U. S. Census Bureau
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SLIDE 20
  • 2014 - better than most states - but

8th lean year of subpar Arizona growth

  • Indicators show “not out of the woods”
  • Still 2 – 3 years before full recovery
  • Major risk is continued ineffective

growth policies at national level

Arizona Economic

Outlook Summary

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SLIDE 21

http://knowwpcarey.com/

Lee.mcpheters@asu.edu