SLIDE 1 Assessing Forest Species tolerance and associated risk for growth and survival in arboreta along Atlantic climate gradient
António H. Correira1*; Christophe Orazio2; M. Helena Almeida1 ; et al.
1.Centro de Estudos Florestais, ISA, Universidade de Lisboa 2.EFI Planted Forests Facility / IEFC * ahcorreia@isa.ulisboa.pt
SLIDE 2
REINFFORCE main aim
Build a research tool to meet the climate change challenges.
❖Better knowledge of tree species performance response to future climate scenarios, improving uncertainty; ❖Test effectiveness of adaptive forest management; ❖Accompanying Scientific cooperation on climate change adaptation
SLIDE 3
REINFFORCE infrastructure
Take advantage of the Atlantic network of IEFC and EFIATLANTIC partners ->compare sites from longitudes 37 to 57º, under a strongly oceanic influenced climate
❖12 partner Institutions ❖Arboreta network (38 sites), ❖Demonstration site network (41sites), ❖Common protocols (growth measurements, phenology, health, etc.).
SLIDE 4
The arboreta network
Aim: expose the same genetic material produced in the same conditions to various climate/soil contexts. ❖Each of the 38 arboretum is about 2 hectares with 2000 trees; ❖35 species ; 3 provenances/species; 12 trees/ provenance. ❖Arboreta sites represent typical site conditions for managed forests in each region, with Weather monitoring ❖Sites will be monitored for at least 15 years with standardized methods.
SLIDE 5 First results - Survival
- Broadleaf Survival responds to Precipitation Transfer Distance; Conifer
Survival responds to Growing Season Degree Days >5°C (Correia et al, 2018)
Conifer Broadleaf
Estimated Survival
SLIDE 6 First results - Growth
- Overall growth responds to Annual Dryness Index (Correia et al, 2018)
Estimated Survival
SLIDE 7 Within-Species variation
BLUP for provenance variation from mean estimated Conifer species Survival probability
Thuja plicata Calocedrus decurrens Pinus elliotti Pinus pinea
SLIDE 8 Risk assessment for Survival (Broadleaf species)
- Under Publication process-
SLIDE 9
Key messages
❖ A strategical tool for forest adaptation to climate change; ❖key parameters for growth and survival: Transfer Distance for Precipitation, Annual Dryness Index, Growing Season Degree Days >5⁰C ❖Broadleaf survival at installation (first years) will not present significant loss under moderate RCP scenario; ❖ Conifer survival will vary accordingly to each Species, yet there is associated risk even for moderate RCP scenario for mid term projection; ❖ Global risk for growth loss, except for Eucalyptus globulus and gundal.
SLIDE 10
Building an Interface for knowledge application
In order to facilitate the dissemination of the fitted models and predictions, a mobile app is being built, focusing on: ❖risk calculation per species ❖Growth and survival estimation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2080 ❖Suggestion of the species presenting best results ❖Species characterisation and silviculture information
SLIDE 11
Bibliography
❖ Correia, A.H. et al (2018) Early survival and growth plasticity of 33 species planted in 38 arboreta across Europe Atlantic Area. Forests, 2018, 9(10), 630; https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100630 ❖Orazio, C. et al (2013) Arboretum & Demonstration Site Catalogue – Resource INFrastructure for monitoring, adapting and protecting European FORests under Changing climatE. IEFC/EFI-ATLANTIQUE. Bordeaux.
SLIDE 12
Thank you!
António Henrique Correia - ahcorreia@isa.ulisboa.pt
(REsource INFrastructure for monitoring and adapting european Atlantic FORest under Changing climatE) http://reinfforce.iefc.net
