Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer review - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Dec 11, 2022 184 likes •259 views

Aviation Demand Forecasts Probabilistic Forecast Peer review Key issues and trends Sensitivity analysis Ongoing monitoring Last forecast refresh June 2016 2045 design day forecast & modeling

SLIDE 1

Aviation Demand Forecasts

Probabilistic Forecast

– Peer review – Key issues and trends – Sensitivity analysis

Ongoing monitoring

– Last forecast refresh – June 2016 – 2045 design day forecast & modeling – Review of other industry forecasts

Key Questions:

– Are forecasts still appropriate planning inputs for ongoing planning & development? – When will we reach 21 Million Annual Passengers?

SLIDE 2

21.3 13.4 8.4 5 10 15 20 25 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Enplaned passengers (millions)

PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF ENPLANED PASSENGERS

Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2010 Master Plan forecasts (2010 MP): Jacobs Consultancy and NEXTOR,

Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) Actual Activity through CY 2018

SLIDE 3

567 378 244 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Total aircraft operations (thousands)

PDX TOTAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS

2010 MP High (90%) 2010 MP Median (50%) 2010 MP Low (10%)

Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2008 Master Plan forecasts (2008 MP): Jacobs Consultancy and NEXTOR, April 2008.

Actual Activity through CY 2018 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP)

SLIDE 4

972 732 524 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Total cargo (millions of short tons) PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF TOTAL AIR CARGO

2010 MP High (90%)

Sources: Historical: Port of Portland records. 2010 Master Plan forecasts (2010 MP): Jacobs Consultancy

Actual Activity through CY 2018 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP)

SLIDE 5

Actual Activity through CY 2018 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP)

SLIDE 6

Key Issues & Trends

10 years of airline profitability
Outlook remains strong for business and leisure travel
Rate of growth is slowing
Cargo & e-commerce growth
Growth related to Planning Activity Levels (PALs)

– When do we expect to reach 21 Million Annual Passengers? – Why is 21 Million Annual Passengers important?

SLIDE 7

Aviation Demand Forecasts

– Peer review – Key issues and trends – Sensitivity analysis

– Last forecast refresh – June 2016 – 2045 design day forecast & modeling – Review of other industry forecasts

– Are forecasts still appropriate planning inputs for ongoing planning & development? – When will we reach 21 Million Annual Passengers?

21.3 13.4 8.4 5 10 15 20 25 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Enplaned passengers (millions)

PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF ENPLANED PASSENGERS

Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP) Actual Activity through CY 2018

567 378 244 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Total aircraft operations (thousands)

PDX TOTAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS

2010 MP High (90%) 2010 MP Median (50%) 2010 MP Low (10%)

Actual Activity through CY 2018 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP)

972 732 524 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Total cargo (millions of short tons) PDX PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF TOTAL AIR CARGO

2010 MP High (90%)

Actual Activity through CY 2018 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP)

Actual Activity through CY 2018 Planning Forecast 13.4 Enplaned = 26.8 Million Annual Passengers (27 MAP)

Key Issues & Trends

– When do we expect to reach 21 Million Annual Passengers? – Why is 21 Million Annual Passengers important?

Comparison of Actual to Forecast