[PPT] - Beaufort County Forecast Assumptions 1. The national, state or PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

McKibben Demographics

BEAUFORT COUNTY SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT FORECASTS

McKibben Demographic Research, LLC March 6, 2019

Jerome McKibben, Ph.D. Rock Hill, SC j.mckibben@mckibbendemographics.com 978-501-7069

SLIDE 2

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort County Forecast Assumptions

1. The national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter) 2. Interest rates have come off their historic low and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30 year fixed home mortgage stays between 5.0 and 6.0%; 3. The rate of mortgage approval stays at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices; 4. There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers; 5. The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2005-2007 average of Beaufort County for any year in the forecasts; 6. All currently planned, platted, and permitted housing developments are built out and completed by 2027. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2028; 7. The unemployment rates for the Savannah Metropolitan Area will remain below 6.0% for the 10 years of the forecasts; 8. The state of South Carolina does not change any of its current laws regarding Charter Schools, school vouchers or inter district transfer;

SLIDE 3

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort County Forecast Assumptions, cont’d

9. The rate of students transferring into and out of the Beaufort County School District will remain at the 2018-19 level for the next 10 years;

10. The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts;
11. The rate of intra district student transfers (students moving between attendance areas within the district)

in the Beaufort County School District will remain at the 2018-19 level for the next 10 years;

12. There will be no building moratorium within the district;
13. Businesses within the district and the Beaufort County School District area will remain viable;
14. The area is not affected by any kind of natural disaster anytime in the next 10 years;
15. The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than

the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year;

16. Housing turnover rates (sale of existing non-retirement homes in the district) will remain at their current
levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by home owners over the age of 60;
17. Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant;
18. The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2004-2008 average for Beaufort County.

SLIDE 4

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort County Total Population 2010 Census

7,000 3,500 3,500 7,000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 5

McKibben Demographics

Broad River Elementary 2010 Census

600 300 300 600

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 6

McKibben Demographics

Coosa Elementary 2010 Census

600 300 300 600

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

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McKibben Demographics

Okatie Elementary 2010 Census

2,400 1,200 1,200 2,400

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 8

McKibben Demographics

Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

HH w/ Pop Under 18 % HH w/ Pop Under 18 Total Households Household Population Persons Per Household

Beaufort ES 733 28.5% 2,576 5,704 2.21 Bluffton ES 1,679 47.9% 3,505 10,467 2.99 Broad River ES 978 35.6% 2,751 7,062 2.57 Coosa ES 1,198 40.1% 2,984 7,905 2.65 Hilton Head Schools 3,531 19.6% 18,046 40,022 2.22 Lady's Island ES 618 34.2% 1,807 4,657 2.58 MC Riley ES 1,122 40.0% 2,805 7,870 2.81 Mossy Oaks ES 742 30.6% 2,427 5,455 2.25 Okatie ES 883 9.3% 9,449 19,000 2.01 On Bases 1,139 72.4% 1,574 5,127 3.26 Port Royal ES 430 29.9% 1,440 3,100 2.15 Pritchardville ES 495 39.4% 1,256 3,495 2.78 Red Cedar ES 819 37.8% 2,169 5,903 2.72 River Ridge Ac 540 45.7% 1,183 3,309 2.80 Robert Smalls Intl Ac 557 37.1% 1,499 3,810 2.54 Shanklin ES 705 40.0% 1,765 4,900 2.78 St Helena ES 1,013 25.3% 4,011 9,459 2.36 Whale Branch ES 1,299 35.3% 3,677 9,685 2.63 District Total 18,481 28.5% 64,923 156,928 2.42

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McKibben Demographics

Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census

Percentage of Householders aged 35-54 Percentage of Householders aged 65+ Percentage of Householders who own homes Beaufort ES

31.3% 27.2% 52.6%

Bluffton ES

45.1% 10.8% 65.0%

Broad River ES

33.4% 16.1% 60.0%

Coosa ES

38.8% 22.2% 77.2%

Hilton Head Schools

26.9% 41.6% 74.2%

Lady's Island ES

38.4% 25.1% 77.1%

MC Riley ES

43.3% 11.2% 51.4%

Mossy Oaks ES

30.4% 26.7% 56.2%

Okatie ES

12.1% 62.5% 91.7%

On Bases

17.2% 0.4% 1.1%

Port Royal ES

30.0% 16.7% 35.0%

Pritchardville ES

43.8% 13.3% 83.0%

Red Cedar ES

39.4% 18.7% 68.6%

River Ridge Ac

48.7% 9.8% 71.9%

Robert Smalls Intl Ac

35.6% 15.0% 54.6%

Shanklin ES

38.2% 15.8% 59.0%

St Helena ES

30.7% 36.9% 83.5%

Whale Branch ES

37.9% 22.4% 78.9%

District Total

30.2% 32.0% 70.6%

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McKibben Demographics

Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are over age 65 by Elementary Area , 2010 Census

Percentage of Single Person Households Percentage of Single Person Households and are 65+ Beaufort ES 36.7% 14.7% Bluffton ES 16.1% 2.8% Broad River ES 24.2% 6.1% Coosa ES 18.3% 6.9% Hilton Head Schools 27.7% 13.8% Lady's Island ES 21.3% 7.8% MC Riley ES 22.0% 4.0% Mossy Oaks ES 34.2% 13.7% Okatie ES 22.1% 15.9% On Bases 5.5% 0.3% Port Royal ES 35.3% 8.9% Pritchardville ES 15.1% 2.8% Red Cedar ES 19.7% 5.9% River Ridge Ac 16.7% 2.8% Robert Smalls Intl Ac 24.6% 6.5% Shanklin ES 20.9% 5.2% St Helena ES 27.0% 11.2% Whale Branch ES 25.3% 8.3% District Total 24.3% 10.3%

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McKibben Demographics

Where PK-5th Students Live

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D i s t r i c t U n m a t c h e d L i v e O u t , A t t e n d I n ( P K

5

) 354 694 564 455 1894 295 752 374 579 14 184 1018 573 735 273 411 480 623 2 16 1309 Beaufort Elementary School 477 325 21 20 18 15 2 8 1 11 12 10 33 1 151 Bluffton Elementary School 686 577 1 5 22 28 1 21 14 14 2 1 109 Broad River Elementary School 522 10 2 453 3 3 1 3 1 20 9 6 10 1 68 Coosa Elementary School 494 5 5 413 3 47 5 1 2 1 8 4 81 Hilton Head Island Early Childhood Center 402 1 1 395 1 1 2 1 7 Hilton Head Island IB Elementary School 879 5 848 8 5 1 5 1 3 3 28 Hilton Head Island School for the Creative Arts 632 1 609 6 4 2 4 3 1 2 23 Lady's Island Elementary School 302 1 9 2 219 1 1 1 1 63 4 83 MC Riley Elementary School 749 15 2 6 649 9 19 25 19 1 2 2 98 Mossy Oaks Elementary School 420 6 3 26 7 4 2 341 1 8 9 6 4 3 79 Okatie Elementary School 597 1 14 3 3 6 5 1 482 48 11 19 4 115 Port Royal Elementary School 226 1 29 1 2 5 1 3 161 6 5 2 10 65 Pritchardville Elementary School 882 16 2 1 2 8 847 3 2 1 35 Red Cedar Elementary School 640 2 38 4 1 47 18 14 503 9 1 3 134 River Ridge Academy 794 22 1 12 21 60 11 664 1 2 128 Robert Smalls International Academy 252 10 3 2 1 210 20 1 3 2 42 Shanklin Elementary School 369 2 2 1 1 6 1 3 344 1 8 25 St Helena Elementary School 394 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 383 1 11 Whale Branch Elementary School 478 7 5 1 4 10 449 2 27 Whale Branch Middle School 95 1 2 2 88 2 Live in, Attend Out (PK-5) 1400 29 117 111 42 42 76 103 33 97 14 23 171 70 71 63 67 97 174

Where PK-5th Students Attend

SLIDE 12

McKibben Demographics

SLIDE 13

McKibben Demographics

SLIDE 14

McKibben Demographics

Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 Census

Under 1year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years

Beaufort ES 113 98 98 89 77 82 91 78 66 66 76 Bluffton ES 188 188 211 208 196 189 214 191 182 160 176 Broad River ES 116 157 139 125 100 98 98 84 102 77 99 Coosa ES 111 121 132 117 110 115 147 113 109 147 122 Hilton Head Schools 340 329 387 362 362 358 328 357 358 364 360 Lady's Island ES 57 56 68 58 68 59 43 81 71 66 70 MC Riley ES 134 133 142 152 140 135 129 120 120 139 110 Mossy Oaks ES 113 62 67 96 64 66 66 73 70 75 74 Okatie ES 107 88 85 104 89 94 105 106 76 106 86 On Bases 250 240 229 213 171 149 137 114 114 84 88 Port Royal ES 81 61 58 42 38 39 45 31 33 27 38 Pritchardville ES 72 54 70 63 55 53 50 54 43 49 52 Red Cedar ES 107 96 118 97 101 98 80 94 75 77 55 River Ridge Ac 68 62 70 63 73 60 48 68 58 55 55 Robert Smalls Intl Ac 73 83 85 63 69 65 51 58 60 43 50 Shanklin ES 68 99 104 98 78 101 75 98 78 72 64 St Helena ES 88 94 114 113 106 106 91 104 84 107 101 Whale Branch ES 146 136 159 117 159 125 125 121 148 145 132 District Total 2,231 2,157 2,334 2,180 2,056 1,991 1,922 1,945 1,846 1,859 1,808

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McKibben Demographics

Table 7: Comparison of District Resident Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age, 2014-2018

2010 Census Under 1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years 11 years 12 years 13 years

Beaufort County Schools 2231 2157 2334 2180 2056 1991 1922 1945 1846 1859 1808 1731 1725 1632 2018 Enrollment 1605 1593 1705 1614 1616 1553 1855 1674 1540 1381 71.9% 73.9% 73.1% 74.0% 78.6% 78.0% 96.5% 86.1% 83.4% 74.3% 2017 Enrollment 1593 1620 1695 1631 1619 1515 1550 1899 1669 1508 1284 71.4% 75.1% 72.6% 74.8% 78.7% 76.1% 80.6% 97.6% 90.4% 81.1% 71.0% 2016 Enrollment 1565 1599 1675 1604 1654 1526 1519 1533 1889 1735 1395 1247 70.1% 74.1% 71.8% 73.6% 80.4% 76.6% 79.0% 78.8% 102.3% 93.3% 77.2% 72.0% 2015 Enrollment 1543 1592 1680 1602 1657 1528 1519 1493 1581 1919 1670 1412 1113 69.2% 73.8% 72.0% 73.5% 80.6% 76.7% 79.0% 76.8% 85.6% 103.2% 92.4% 81.6% 64.5%

2014 Enrollment

1560 1709 1574 1625 1526 1529 1509 1528 1613 1807 1625 1317 1076 72.3% 73.2% 72.2% 79.0% 76.6% 79.6% 77.6% 82.8% 86.8% 99.9% 93.9% 76.3% 65.9%

SLIDE 16

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort County School District Population Forecast

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4

10,958 11,340 11,290 10,780 10,590

5-9

9,563 10,860 11,220 11,150 10,710

10-14

8,553 9,670 11,020 11,310 11,210

15-19

9,956 9,830 10,980 12,090 12,430

20-24

11,755 12,020 11,970 12,860 12,920

25-29

10,842 11,720 12,360 12,200 12,970

30-34

9,295 10,800 11,900 12,500 12,510

35-39

9,107 9,710 11,210 12,380 13,290

40-44

8,426 9,180 9,340 10,890 12,160

45-49

9,288 8,390 9,130 9,340 10,950

50-54

9,289 9,490 8,640 9,330 9,590

55-59

9,881 9,870 9,970 9,130 9,730

60-64

12,264 11,220 11,170 11,120 10,210

65-69

11,746 12,970 11,870 11,770 11,690

70-74

8,383 10,360 11,500 10,620 10,550

75-79

5,932 7,820 9,810 11,060 10,140

80-84

3,759 5,330 7,290 9,320 10,580

85+

3,197 3,670 4,740 6,310 8,280

Total

162,194 174,250 185,410 194,160 200,510

Median Age

40.6 40.6 40.4 40.8 41.5

Births

10,470 10,800 10,370 10,260

Deaths

4,970 6,010 7,380 9,050

Natural Increase

5,500 4,790 2,990 1,210

Net Migration

6,740 6,280 5,680 5,160

Change

12,240 11,070 8,670 6,370

Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.

SLIDE 17

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort County School District Enrollment Forecast

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 870 905 915 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 910 K 1543 1498 1524 1517 1557 1529 1512 1491 1472 1443 1426 1432 1417 1441 1 1592 1565 1521 1542 1539 1580 1552 1529 1508 1490 1473 1456 1443 1428 2 1680 1599 1593 1579 1558 1568 1609 1581 1558 1537 1519 1510 1493 1480 3 1602 1675 1620 1605 1569 1566 1588 1630 1602 1580 1559 1553 1544 1526 4 1657 1604 1695 1593 1607 1556 1567 1590 1633 1605 1582 1572 1567 1557 5 1528 1654 1631 1705 1563 1606 1571 1583 1608 1652 1622 1611 1602 1596 Elem Total 10472 10500 10499 10451 10303 10315 10309 10314 10291 10217 10091 10044 9976 9938 6 1519 1526 1619 1614 1683 1540 1593 1562 1583 1601 1645 1620 1609 1600 7 1493 1519 1515 1616 1609 1677 1547 1600 1571 1591 1609 1653 1629 1618 8 1581 1533 1550 1553 1632 1630 1707 1576 1629 1601 1619 1641 1685 1661 M S Total 4593 4578 4684 4783 4924 4847 4847 4738 4783 4793 4873 4914 4923 4879 9 1919 1889 1899 1855 1799 1875 1900 1953 1828 1866 1860 1893 1905 1958 10 1670 1735 1669 1674 1659 1621 1695 1719 1767 1656 1686 1680 1715 1720 11 1412 1395 1508 1540 1536 1534 1498 1568 1589 1635 1534 1559 1554 1588 12 1113 1247 1284 1381 1439 1446 1441 1405 1474 1491 1537 1441 1464 1459 H S Total 6114 6266 6360 6450 6433 6476 6534 6645 6658 6648 6617 6573 6638 6725 Total: All Grades 21179 21344 21543 21684 21660 21638 21690 21697 21732 21658 21581 21531 21537 21542 Change 165 199 141

24
22

52 7 35

74
77
50

6 5 % Change 0.78% 0.93% 0.65%

0.11%
0.10%

0.24% 0.03% 0.16%

0.34%
0.36%
0.23%

0.03% 0.02% Total: Elem 10472 10500 10499 10451 10303 10315 10309 10314 10291 10217 10091 10044 9976 9938 Change 28

1
48
148

12

6

5

23
74
126
47
68
38

% Change 0.27%

0.01%
0.46%
1.42%

0.12%

0.06%

0.05%

0.22%
0.72%
1.23%
0.47%
0.68%
0.38%

Total: M S 4593 4578 4684 4783 4924 4847 4847 4738 4783 4793 4873 4914 4923 4879 Change

15

106 99 141

77
109

45 10 80 41 9

44

% Change

0.33%

2.32% 2.11% 2.95%

1.56%

0.00%

2.25%

0.95% 0.21% 1.67% 0.84% 0.18%

0.89%

Total: H S 6114 6266 6360 6450 6433 6476 6534 6645 6658 6648 6617 6573 6638 6725 Change 152 94 90

17

43 58 111 13

10
31
44

65 87 % Change 2.49% 1.50% 1.42%

0.26%

0.67% 0.90% 1.70% 0.20%

0.15%
0.47%
0.66%

0.99% 1.31%

SLIDE 18

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort Cluster Enrollment Forecast

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 209 218 224 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 217 K 374 328 344 353 366 357 346 337 327 320 311 306 299 305 1 361 374 323 338 357 367 358 347 338 329 322 313 307 300 2 380 373 363 323 343 364 374 365 354 345 336 331 322 316 3 334 385 364 356 320 340 361 372 363 353 344 338 333 324 4 374 335 412 338 356 318 340 362 373 364 354 348 343 338 5 338 358 345 409 335 351 320 342 365 377 366 362 357 352 Elem Total 2370 2371 2375 2334 2294 2314 2316 2342 2337 2305 2250 2215 2178 2152 6 357 360 353 326 409 335 354 322 343 367 379 368 364 358 7 355 347 340 338 317 397 326 345 314 334 358 369 359 355 8 365 351 343 353 341 320 402 331 349 318 339 363 374 364 M S Total 1077 1058 1036 1017 1067 1052 1082 998 1006 1019 1076 1100 1097 1077 9 459 394 397 387 397 384 360 452 372 393 358 381 408 421 10 378 356 338 335 333 341 330 310 389 320 338 308 328 351 11 301 308 332 299 308 306 314 304 285 358 294 311 283 302 12 253 279 288 315 281 290 288 295 286 268 337 276 292 266 H S Total 1391 1337 1355 1336 1319 1321 1292 1361 1332 1339 1327 1276 1311 1340 Total: All Grades 4838 4766 4766 4687 4680 4687 4690 4701 4675 4663 4653 4591 4586 4569 Change

72
79
7

7 3 11

26
12
10
62
5
17

% Change

1.49%

0.00%

1.66%
0.15%

0.15% 0.06% 0.23%

0.55%
0.26%
0.21%
1.33%
0.11%
0.37%

Total: Elem 2370 2371 2375 2334 2294 2314 2316 2342 2337 2305 2250 2215 2178 2152 Change 1 4

41
40

20 2 26

5
32
55
35
37
26

% Change 0.04% 0.17%

1.73%
1.71%

0.87% 0.09% 1.12%

0.21%
1.37%
2.39%
1.56%
1.67%
1.19%

Total: M S 1077 1058 1036 1017 1067 1052 1082 998 1006 1019 1076 1100 1097 1077 Change

19
22
19

50

15

30

84

8 13 57 24

3
20

% Change

1.76%
2.08%
1.83%

4.92%

1.41%

2.85%

7.76%

0.80% 1.29% 5.59% 2.23%

0.27%
1.82%

Total: H S 1391 1337 1355 1336 1319 1321 1292 1361 1332 1339 1327 1276 1311 1340 Change

54

18

19
17

2

29

69

29

7

12
51

35 29 % Change

3.88%

1.35%

1.40%
1.27%

0.15%

2.20%

5.34%

2.13%

0.53%

0.90%
3.84%

2.74% 2.21%

SLIDE 19

McKibben Demographics

Bluffton Cluster Enrollment Forecast

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 318 327 332 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 342 K 614 612 665 611 629 620 618 611 607 601 595 593 587 596 1 631 633 631 686 628 646 637 629 622 618 612 606 600 594 2 653 654 664 674 692 644 662 653 645 638 633 630 624 618 3 600 675 692 670 662 700 658 676 667 659 652 650 647 641 4 643 626 702 716 686 663 707 666 684 675 667 664 662 659 5 557 680 666 717 695 696 677 721 680 698 689 684 681 678 Elem Total 4016 4207 4352 4416 4334 4311 4301 4298 4247 4231 4190 4169 4143 4128 6 585 570 683 691 735 694 699 682 724 684 705 696 691 688 7 568 607 586 713 708 753 715 720 703 746 705 726 717 712 8 605 596 635 605 726 721 769 729 735 718 760 720 741 732 M S Total 1758 1773 1904 2009 2169 2168 2183 2131 2162 2148 2170 2142 2149 2132 9 612 664 729 747 636 744 763 794 771 750 748 821 751 776 10 578 685 642 675 714 607 711 728 758 737 716 715 784 718 11 450 468 585 613 636 671 571 669 684 713 694 673 673 737 12 367 411 427 538 586 607 638 543 637 650 678 661 640 641 H S Total 2007 2228 2383 2573 2572 2629 2683 2734 2850 2850 2836 2870 2848 2872 Total: All Grades 7781 8208 8639 8998 9075 9108 9167 9163 9259 9229 9196 9181 9140 9132 Change 427 431 359 77 33 59

4

96

30
33
15
41
8

% Change 5.49% 5.25% 4.16% 0.86% 0.36% 0.65%

0.04%

1.05%

0.32%
0.36%
0.16%
0.45%
0.09%

Total: Elem 4016 4207 4352 4416 4334 4311 4301 4298 4247 4231 4190 4169 4143 4128 Change 191 145 64

82
23
10
3
51
16
41
21
26
15

% Change 4.76% 3.45% 1.47%

1.86%
0.53%
0.23%
0.07%
1.19%
0.38%
0.97%
0.50%
0.62%
0.36%

Total: M S 1758 1773 1904 2009 2169 2168 2183 2131 2162 2148 2170 2142 2149 2132 Change 15 131 105 160

1

15

52

31

14

22

28

7

17

% Change 0.85% 7.39% 5.51% 7.96%

0.05%

0.69%

2.38%

1.45%

0.65%

1.02%

1.29%

0.33%

0.79%

Total: H S 2007 2228 2383 2573 2572 2629 2683 2734 2850 2850 2836 2870 2848 2872 Change 221 155 190

1

57 54 51 116

14

34

22

24 % Change 11.01% 6.96% 7.97%

0.04%

2.22% 2.05% 1.90% 4.24% 0.00%

0.49%

1.20%

0.77%

0.84%

SLIDE 20

McKibben Demographics

Hilton Head Cluster Enrollment Forecast

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 134 149 147 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 138 K 294 278 274 281 281 277 275 271 266 250 248 260 258 262 1 318 305 295 278 285 290 286 282 278 273 269 267 265 263 2 340 302 315 306 282 289 294 290 286 282 277 276 274 272 3 370 338 316 325 314 289 299 304 300 296 292 290 289 286 4 353 369 334 296 320 310 287 297 303 299 294 293 291 290 5 382 342 366 330 295 319 313 289 300 306 302 299 298 296 Elem Total 2191 2083 2047 1954 1915 1912 1892 1871 1871 1844 1820 1823 1813 1807 6 320 363 329 352 317 283 309 304 280 291 297 296 293 292 7 338 316 354 315 341 307 277 303 298 274 285 294 293 290 8 330 329 322 354 318 344 313 283 309 304 279 294 303 302 M S Total 988 1008 1005 1021 976 934 899 890 887 869 861 884 889 884 9 392 406 399 379 432 388 420 382 345 377 371 340 359 370 10 367 330 344 348 345 393 353 382 348 314 343 338 309 327 11 327 330 290 308 317 314 358 321 348 317 286 312 308 281 12 226 261 283 263 283 292 289 329 295 320 292 263 287 283 H S Total 1312 1327 1316 1298 1377 1387 1420 1414 1336 1328 1292 1253 1263 1261 Total: All Grades 4491 4418 4368 4273 4268 4233 4211 4175 4094 4041 3973 3960 3965 3952 Change

73
50
95
5
35
22
36
81
53
68
13

5

13

% Change

1.63%
1.13%
2.17%
0.12%
0.82%
0.52%
0.85%
1.94%
1.29%
1.68%
0.33%

0.13%

0.33%

Total: Elem 2191 2083 2047 1954 1915 1912 1892 1871 1871 1844 1820 1823 1813 1807 Change

108
36
93
39
3
20
21
27
24

3

10
6

% Change

4.93%
1.73%
4.54%
2.00%
0.16%
1.05%
1.11%

0.00%

1.44%
1.30%

0.16%

0.55%
0.33%

Total: M S 988 1008 1005 1021 976 934 899 890 887 869 861 884 889 884 Change 20

3

16

45
42
35
9
3
18
8

23 5

5

% Change 2.02%

0.30%

1.59%

4.41%
4.30%
3.75%
1.00%
0.34%
2.03%
0.92%

2.67% 0.57%

0.56%

Total: H S 1312 1327 1316 1298 1377 1387 1420 1414 1336 1328 1292 1253 1263 1261 Change 15

11
18

79 10 33

6
78
8
36
39

10

2

% Change 1.14%

0.83%
1.37%

6.09% 0.73% 2.38%

0.42%
5.52%
0.60%
2.71%
3.02%

0.80%

0.16%

SLIDE 21

McKibben Demographics

Battery Creek Cluster Enrollment Forecast

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 130 129 135 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 133 K 167 188 164 184 190 185 185 185 186 186 187 189 190 194 1 179 161 194 163 183 190 185 186 186 187 187 188 189 190 2 200 172 165 198 165 186 193 188 189 189 191 189 190 191 3 200 172 155 174 197 163 187 194 189 190 190 192 190 191 4 184 190 148 165 170 194 163 186 193 188 189 188 190 188 5 160 174 167 153 162 166 191 162 185 192 187 187 186 188 Elem Total 1220 1186 1128 1170 1200 1217 1237 1234 1261 1265 1264 1266 1268 1275 6 160 134 158 160 145 154 159 183 156 178 184 181 181 180 7 138 150 138 158 162 146 157 162 187 159 182 186 183 183 8 149 151 147 145 161 165 150 162 167 193 164 186 190 187 M S Total 447 435 443 463 468 465 466 507 510 530 530 553 554 550 9 279 256 236 220 220 245 251 228 246 254 293 249 283 289 10 219 219 200 193 180 180 201 206 187 202 208 240 204 232 11 206 197 182 180 176 164 164 183 187 170 184 189 218 186 12 171 172 179 156 164 160 149 149 167 170 155 167 172 198 H S Total 875 844 797 749 740 749 765 766 787 796 840 845 877 905 Total: All Grades 2542 2465 2368 2382 2408 2431 2468 2507 2558 2591 2634 2664 2699 2730 Change

77
97

14 26 23 37 39 51 33 43 30 35 31 % Change

3.03%
3.94%

0.59% 1.09% 0.96% 1.52% 1.58% 2.03% 1.29% 1.66% 1.14% 1.31% 1.15% Total: Elem 1220 1186 1128 1170 1200 1217 1237 1234 1261 1265 1264 1266 1268 1275 Change

34
58

42 30 17 20

3

27 4

1

2 2 7 % Change

2.79%
4.89%

3.72% 2.56% 1.42% 1.64%

0.24%

2.19% 0.32%

0.08%

0.16% 0.16% 0.55% Total: M S 447 435 443 463 468 465 466 507 510 530 530 553 554 550 Change

12

8 20 5

3

1 41 3 20 23 1

4

% Change

2.68%

1.84% 4.51% 1.08%

0.64%

0.22% 8.80% 0.59% 3.92% 0.00% 4.34% 0.18%

0.72%

Total: H S 875 844 797 749 740 749 765 766 787 796 840 845 877 905 Change

31
47
48
9

9 16 1 21 9 44 5 32 28 % Change

3.54%
5.57%
6.02%
1.20%

1.22% 2.14% 0.13% 2.74% 1.14% 5.53% 0.60% 3.79% 3.19%

SLIDE 22

McKibben Demographics

Whale Branch Cluster Enrollment Forecast

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29

PK 79 82 77 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 K 94 92 77 88 91 90 88 87 86 86 85 84 83 84 1 103 92 78 77 86 87 86 85 84 83 83 82 82 81 2 107 98 86 78 76 85 86 85 84 83 82 84 83 83 3 98 105 93 80 76 74 83 84 83 82 81 83 85 84 4 103 84 99 78 75 71 70 79 80 79 78 79 81 82 5 584 553 510 481 484 487 493 500 497 493 489 492 494 494 Elem Total 91 100 87 96 76 74 70 69 78 79 78 79 80 82 6 97 95 96 84 77 74 72 71 80 81 80 79 80 82 7 94 93 94 88 81 74 72 70 69 78 79 78 77 78 8 118 94 90 86 86 80 73 71 69 68 77 78 77 76 M S Total 400 382 367 354 320 302 287 281 296 306 314 314 314 318 9 170 153 123 99 114 114 106 97 94 92 90 102 104 102 10 122 137 135 109 87 100 100 93 85 83 81 79 90 92 11 127 85 109 128 99 79 91 91 85 77 76 74 72 82 12 94 124 104 102 125 97 77 89 89 83 75 74 73 71 H S Total 513 499 471 438 425 390 374 370 353 335 322 329 339 347 Total: All Grades 1497 1434 1348 1273 1229 1179 1154 1151 1146 1134 1125 1135 1147 1159 Change

63
86
75
44
50
25
3
5
12
9

10 12 12 % Change

4.21%
6.00%
5.56%
3.46%
4.07%
2.12%
0.26%
0.43%
1.05%
0.79%

0.89% 1.06% 1.05% Total: Elem 584 553 510 481 484 487 493 500 497 493 489 492 494 494 Change

31
43
29

3 3 6 7

3
4
4

3 2 % Change

5.31%
7.78%
5.69%

0.62% 0.62% 1.23% 1.42%

0.60%
0.80%
0.81%

0.61% 0.41% 0.00% Total: M S 400 382 367 354 320 302 287 281 296 306 314 314 314 318 Change

18
15
13
34
18
15
6

15 10 8 4 % Change

4.50%
3.93%
3.54%
9.60%
5.63%
4.97%
2.09%

5.34% 3.38% 2.61% 0.00% 0.00% 1.27% Total: H S 513 499 471 438 425 390 374 370 353 335 322 329 339 347 Change

14
28
33
13
35
16
4
17
18
13

7 10 8 % Change

2.73%
5.61%
7.01%
2.97%
8.24%
4.10%
1.07%
4.59%
5.10%
3.88%

2.17% 3.04% 2.36%

SLIDE 23

McKibben Demographics

Beaufort Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 24

McKibben Demographics

Bluffton Elementary 2010 Census

600 300 300 600

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 25

McKibben Demographics

Hilton Head Schools 2010 Census

2,400 1,200 1,200 2,400

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 26

McKibben Demographics

Lady’s Island Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 27

McKibben Demographics

MC Riley Elementary 2010 Census

600 300 300 600

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 28

McKibben Demographics

Mossy Oaks Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 29

McKibben Demographics

On Bases Elementary 2010 Census

2,400 1,200 1,200 2,400

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 30

McKibben Demographics

Port Royal Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 31

McKibben Demographics

Prichardville Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 32

McKibben Demographics

Red Cedar Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 33

McKibben Demographics

River Ridge Academy 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 34

McKibben Demographics

Robert Smalls International Academy 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 35

McKibben Demographics

Shanklin Elementary 2010 Census

300 150 150 300

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 36

McKibben Demographics

St. Helena Elementary 2010 Census

600 300 300 600

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 37

McKibben Demographics

Whale Branch Elementary 2010 Census

600 300 300 600

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Males Females

SLIDE 38

McKibben Demographics

Table 1: Elementary Area Population Change, 2010 to 2020

2010 2015 2010-2015 Change 2020 2015-2020 Change 2010-2020 Change

Beaufort ES 5,955 6,290 5.6%

6,600

4.9% 10.8% Bluffton ES 10,467 11,650 11.3%

12,860

10.4% 22.9% Broad River ES 7,066 7,800 10.4%

8,580

10.0% 21.4% Coosa ES 7,913 8,440 6.7%

8,940

5.9% 13.0% Hilton Head Schools 40,224 41,150 2.3%

41,630

1.2% 3.5% Lady's Island ES 4,657 4,940 6.1%

5,250

6.3% 12.7% MC Riley ES 7,870 8,940 13.6%

10,070

12.6% 28.0% Mossy Oaks ES 5,698 6,200 8.8%

6,730

8.5% 18.1% Okatie ES 19,248 19,400 0.8%

19,390

0.1%

0.7% On Bases 9,322 10,320 10.7%

11,250

9.0% 20.7% Port Royal ES 3,177 3,650 14.9%

4,140

13.4% 30.3% Pritchardville ES 3,495 4,650 33.1%

5,450

17.2% 56.0% Red Cedar ES 5,903 6,530 10.6%

7,130

9.2% 20.8% River Ridge Ac 3,324 4,430 33.3%

5,470

23.5% 64.6% Robert Smalls Intl Ac 3,810 4,270 12.1%

4,750

11.2% 24.7% Shanklin ES 4,900 5,430 10.8%

5,970

9.9% 21.8% St Helena ES 9,481 9,870 4.1%

10,260

4.0% 8.2% Whale Branch ES 9,685 10,290 6.2%

10,940

6.3% 13.0% District Total 162,193 174,250 7.4%

185,410

6.4% 14.3%

SLIDE 39

McKibben Demographics

Table 5: Elementary Enrollment (K-5), 2018, 2023, 2028

2018 2023 2018-2023 Change 2028 2023-2028 Change 2018-2028 Change

Beaufort ES 481 430

10.6%

407

5.3%
15.4%

Bluffton ES 701 702 0.1% 678

3.4%
3.3%

Broad River ES 532 619 16.4% 634 2.4% 19.2% Coosa ES 495 504 1.8% 472

6.3%
4.6%

Hilton Head Schools 1,954 1,871

4.2%

1,807

3.4%
7.5%

Lady's Island ES 305 284

6.9%

257

9.5%
15.7%

MC Riley ES 761 696

8.5%

675

3.0%
11.3%

Mossy Oaks ES 418 455 8.9% 414

9.0%
1.0%

Okatie ES 613 561

8.5%

524

6.6%
14.5%

Port Royal ES 229 251 9.6% 214

14.7%
6.6%

Pritchardville ES 888 895 0.8% 870

2.8%
2.0%

Red Cedar ES 652 634

2.8%

621

2.1%
4.8%

River Ridge Ac 801 759

5.2%

760 0.1%

5.1%

Robert Smalls Intl Ac 255 248

2.7%

262 5.6% 2.7% Shanklin ES 383 394 2.9% 379

3.8%
1.0%

St Helena ES 406 413 1.7% 388

6.1%
4.4%

Whale Branch ES 577 575

0.3%

576 0.2%

0.2%

District Total 10,451 10,291

1.5%

9,938

3.4%
4.9%