Brexit by Numbers Joe Twyman, YouGov Head of Political & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Upcoming event: Brexit by Numbers Joe Twyman, YouGov Head of Political & Social Research Friday 4 November 4 pm 5.30 pm Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building Book places in advance on Eventbrite! oxfordqstep oxfordqstepcentre 1
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Brexit by Numbers Joe Twyman, YouGov Head of Political & Social Research
Friday 4 November 4 pm – 5.30 pm Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building Book places in advance on Eventbrite!
Upcoming event:
Control for: determinants of X that might also affect Y! And: determinants of Y that are in any way related to X! Noting that: the impact of X on Y might be conditional on some value of Zb!
a! b!
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group and the treatment group after the treatment has occurred. !
Figure 5.1 (p113) from Dunning, T. (2012)!
Think about potential outcomes…!
– A unit’s potential outcome if treated minus its potential outcome if untreated (control)..???! – Not all units will respond the same. ! – Holland (1986): “the fundamental problem of causal inference”.!
settle for factual and counterfactual. !
Average causal affect = the difference between the average outcome if all units in the study were assigned to treatment and the average outcome if all units in the study were assigned to control.!
estimator of the population mean.!
unbiased estimator for the mean of the potential
effect = difference of means. !
– Fully randomised?! – SUTVA (the stable unit-treatment value assumption)!
– Can we reasonably extrapolate to other contexts?!
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“Prior to the August 2006 primary election in Michigan, approximately 80,000 households were sent one of four mailings encouraging them to vote.” (33)
civic duty is key to predicting turnout
accordance with norm (voting).
as a (random?) sample of all households in the state.
further 100K HH in control group)
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– Hyde, Susan D. "Experiments in International Relations: Lab, Survey, and Field." Annual Review of Political Science 18 (2015): 403-424.! – Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., Brad L. LeVeck, and David G. Victor. "How Activists Perceive the Utility of International Law." The Journal of Politics 78, No. 1 (2016): 167-180.!
– Gonzalez Ocantos .E. et al. (2012) ‘Vote Buying and Social! Desirability Bias: Experimental Evidence from Nicaragua’, AmericanJournal of Political Science, 56(1), 202-217 Data: http://www.chadkiewietdejonge.com/research/!
– Bansak et al. (2016). "How economic, humanitarian, and religious concerns shape European attitudes toward asylum seekers". Science, 354(6309), 217-222. !