Carbon Capture and Storage vs. Energy Efficiency: Incompatible - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Carbon Capture and Storage vs. Energy Efficiency: Incompatible - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Carbon Capture and Storage vs. Energy Efficiency: Incompatible Antagonists or Indispensable Allies? ECEEE 2007 Summer Study, La Colle Barbara Praetorius, Katja Schumacher Agenda Introduction CCS issues Activities

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Carbon Capture and Storage

  • vs. Energy Efficiency:

Incompatible Antagonists or Indispensable Allies?

ECEEE 2007 Summer Study, La Colle Barbara Praetorius, Katja Schumacher

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Agenda

– Introduction – CCS issues – Activities – Mitigation scenarios – Conclusions

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Introduction

Coal and CCS in GERMANY – Major domestic energy resource and power generation input – Climate change and the low-emissions coal power station What is Carbon Capture and Storage? Not a new technology (EOR; EGR) For power sector, 3 technologies under development: – Pre combustion (RWE, 450 MW Plant, 2014) – Oxyfuel (Vattenfall, 30 MW pilot plant, 2008) – Post combustion (Alstom/American Electric Power, 2011)

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

CCS process steps

Source: CO2CRC. http://www.co2crc.com.au

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Issues and challenges

Economics

– Higher up-front investment – Additional energy input (“energy penalty”) – Economical at a CO2 price of > 30 EUR/t

Availability and timing

– Mitigation option for large point sources – IGCC most promising (by 2020) with economic advantages compared to retrofit, oxyfuel and NGCC – Bridging technology: Theoretical storage capacity of 80-150 yrs (in Germany)

Environmental risks

– Leakage over time – Geological issues (acid & other)

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Issues and challenges (2)

Resulting issues and challenges – Further R&D on open questions and risks – Liability and other regulations (national, cross-border) – Policy framework (carbon regime, level and intensity of R&D support…) – Public acceptance

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

CCS activities in Germany and abroad

Agenda setting phase, no elaborated policy yet – R&D networks (COORETEC, GEOTECHNOLOGIES) – European level: ZEP technology platform (2005) – International level: CSLF (2003) – NGO positions formed (2005-2006) Actors and interests – Early drivers: Oil & gas industry, research organisations, some ministries – Electricity and power plant industry increasingly involved – NGO / Ministry for Environment BMU / Federal environmental office UBA rather critical, but – No fierce opposition

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Interface of energy efficiency and CCS

– Decrease in conversion efficiency vs. efficiency – Competition for R&D funding (also with renewables) – Or: Complementary approaches within a mix of policies and measures?

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Potential impact on future electricity system: Mitigation scenarios

– Wide range of cost estimates for CCS – Studies including CCS as a mitigation option conclude:

  • Lower economic costs when CCS is included
  • High uncertainties on costs
  • Time of commercial availability matters

– Most studies are of bottom-up type and include detailed technology information – They lack interaction with rest of economy, take energy demand and macroeconomic development as given – Macroeconomic (top-down) models lack technology detail – Attempt to combine features from both models

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Analysis with SGM Germany

– SGM Germany: computable general equilibrium model for Germany – Embodies technology detail for electricity sector (NGCC, IGCC, and coal power with and without CCS, renewables) – Economy-wide framework: allows interaction of sectors – Used to analyze economic, energy and environmental effects

  • f policy measures
  • Output adjustment
  • Structural change
  • Demand and supply efficiency changes
  • Shifts in technologies in electricity sector
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Simulated economy wide emissions reductions, Germany 2020

10 20 30 40 50 60 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% reduction in CO2 emissions as fraction of baseline carbon price ( per tCO2)

efficiency CCS

2020

df fuel switch

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Simulated economy wide emissions reductions, Germany 2040

10 20 30 40 50 60 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% reduction in CO2 emissions as fraction of baseline carbon price ( per tCO2)

efficiency CCS fuel switch

2040

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Electricity sector decomposition over time (baseline)

  • 60
  • 20

20 60 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change in Emissions (million tCO2) Generation efficiency Output Fuel structure Sum

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Electricity sector decomposition over time (step wise CO2 policy)

  • 200
  • 160
  • 120
  • 80
  • 40

40 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Change in Emissions (million tCO2) CCS Generation efficiency Fuel structure Output Sum

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Conclusions

  • It is likely that CCS will come (retrofit unlikely though)
  • Stringent and reliable CO2 policy is important
  • Given uncertainties and storage constraint CCS may serve

as bridging technology

  • Timing matters
  • CCS no magic bullet, unlike perhaps energy efficiency
  • CCS and energy efficiency can both contribute to emissions

reduction, given high enough CO2 price

  • CCS more important in the relation to renewable energy and

nuclear power

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Thank you Your comments are welcome!

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CO2 capture process: Different options

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SGM Results: Baseline electricity generation

hydro&other ren

  • il

gas coal (PC) advanced coal (PCA) IGCC NGCC subsidized wind wind nuclear 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Electricity sector results – stepwise increase of CO2 price, without CCS

hydro & other ren

  • il

gas coal (PC)

advanced coal (PCA) PCAccs

IGCC IGCCccs NGCC

NGCCccs

subsidized wind wind nuclear

Baseline Policy scenario

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh

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Praetorius, Schumacher ECEEE 2007

Electricity sector results – stepwise increase of CO2 price, with CCS

hydro & other ren

  • il

gas coal (PC) advanced coal (PCA) PCAccs IGCC IGCCccs NGCC

NGCCccs

subsidized wind wind nuclear

Policy scenario Baseline

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 TWh