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Challenges in Research on Discreet & Continuous Mathematics, Statistics and related for Smart (Power) Grids Subjective Point of View of a Physicist Michael (Misha) Chertkov Center for Nonlinear Studies & Theory Division, LANL October

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Challenges in Research on Discreet & Continuous Mathematics, Statistics and related for Smart (Power) Grids Subjective Point of View of a Physicist

Michael (Misha) Chertkov

Center for Nonlinear Studies & Theory Division, LANL

October 27, 2010, DIMACS

Michael (Misha) Chertkov – chertkov@lanl.gov http://cnls.lnl.gov/∼chertkov/SmarterGrids

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New Systems

Renewables PHEV & Storage Metering

New Challenges

Grid Stability

distance to failure
dynamic stability
outages/rare events
cascading
signature detection

Grid Control

load balancing
queuing and scheduling
optimal power flows
feeder lines control
distribution and switching

with redundancy

Grid Design

placement of generations

and storage

intermittent wind as

an integrated capacity

accounting for outages and

intermittency in planning

Analysis & Control
Stability/Reliability Metrics
State Estimation
Data Aggregation & Assimilation
Middleware for the Grid
Modeling Consumer Response

All of the above also requires scientific advances in

Our (LANL) Road Map for Smart Grids

Michael (Misha) Chertkov – chertkov@lanl.gov http://cnls.lnl.gov/∼chertkov/SmarterGrids

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General Remarks

90% of time should be spent on formulating problems, which will normally be ill posed. The theory setting may be “toyish” (abstracting out “insignificant” effects) but needs to be based on power grid reality (e.g. power flows constraints should be accounted for in cyber, communication research) We (theorists) should be fishing for “universality” general principles (an example: scalings in cascades) Should have a good understanding of diverse temporal and spatial scales Make data, possibly sanitated and/or synthetic but realistic, available as benchmarks for researchers (different scales networks and power flow solutions - not necessarily algorithms)

Michael (Misha) Chertkov – chertkov@lanl.gov http://cnls.lnl.gov/∼chertkov/SmarterGrids

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More Technical (but still general) Remarks

Distribution & Transmission Systems should not necessarily be considered separately Power Engineering should benefit from some unification (example: transient stability & voltage collapse are not so distant research areas) Statistical Power Flow (fluctuations, disorder, Master Equations, Fokker-Planck) bringing more of stochastic dynamics into power engineering Coarse-graining is not trivial (example from from fluid mechanics - large eddy simulations) Intermittency of new (renewable) sources is a separate important field/direction (need significant input from physics/atmosperic sciences)

Michael (Misha) Chertkov – chertkov@lanl.gov http://cnls.lnl.gov/∼chertkov/SmarterGrids

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Algorithms & Theory for Smart Grids

Design (re)formulating as

ptimization

(possibly multi-objective) find an exact (optimal) or approximate (efficient) solutions worrying about probabilistic guarantees Control clearly state the

bjective for control

dynamics vs static markets (account for or not) learning in games (distributed control) Stability different metrics for distance to failure (example - voltage collapse) cascades extreme events (of various kind) ⇐ control and design of all the above

Michael (Misha) Chertkov – chertkov@lanl.gov http://cnls.lnl.gov/∼chertkov/SmarterGrids