Climate Change Climate Change Why haven't we done more? Sam - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change Climate Change

Why haven't we done more?

Sam Crawley Victoria University of Wellington

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Climate change history Climate change history

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1950s/1960s: Climate science established 1970s/1980s: Climate change on the political agenda James Hansen presented to US Senate committee, 1988 Reported on front-page of the NYT 1990s: Rio Earth Summit, UNFCCC established

James Hansen

Climate change history Climate change history

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Climate change consequences Climate change consequences

Assuming "BAU" (4°C to 6°C by 2100) 1 metre sea level rise (conservative estimate) Changes in weather: Wetter/drier weather in some regions Increase in extreme weather events (cyclones, heat waves, storms) Ocean acidification

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Climate change consequences Climate change consequences

Mass migration Health problems Disruption of food production Resource scarcity (especially fresh water) Social instability and war

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To summarise To summarise

We've known about climate change for a long time The effects will be catastrophic So... why haven't we done more???

Image Source: Calyponte via Wikimedia Commons

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Why haven't we done more? Why haven't we done more?

How far away are we from doing "enough"? What have we done so far? What do we need to do? Who or what do we mean by "we"? Who is actually making the decisions?

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What have we done so far? What have we done so far?

Emissions Levels & Trends International agreements National emissions records / targets

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Global Emissions Trends Global Emissions Trends

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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Rate of Emissions Rate of Emissions

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NZ Emissions NZ Emissions

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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UK Emissions UK Emissions

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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Denmark Emissions Denmark Emissions

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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US Emissions US Emissions

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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2017 CO2 emissions by country 2017 CO2 emissions by country

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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2017 CO2 emissions per person 2017 CO2 emissions per person

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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2016 CO2 consumption 2016 CO2 consumption

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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2016 CO2 consumption per person 2016 CO2 consumption per person

Data Source: Global Carbon Atlas

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International Agreements International Agreements

UNFCCC - established in 1992 IPCC - established in 1988 Kyoto Protocol Paris Agreement

Image Source: UNFCCC via Flickr

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Paris Agreement Paris Agreement

Agreement in 2015 to limit warming to 1.5°C "Nationally determined contributions" (NDCs) Submitted every 5 years (next one due 2020) Voluntary emissions targets

Image Source: UNFCCC via Flickr

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Paris Agreement Paris Agreement

Good: 196 countries agreed (almost all have ratified) Measurement of current targets Bad: It's voluntary / non-binding Commitments not ambitious enough

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Paris Agreement so far Paris Agreement so far

Source: Climate Action Tracker

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Paris Agreement so far Paris Agreement so far

Source: Climate Action Tracker

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Summary - what have we done? Summary - what have we done?

Emissions continuing to rise Falling in some countries Partly due to moving production offshore Partly due to rise in natural gas use Paris Agreement not working (well)

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What do we need to do? What do we need to do?

Keep warming to 1.5°C (or at most 2°C) Reduce emissions Social policy

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Emissions pathways Emissions pathways

Source: Climate Action Tracker

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Social Policy Social Policy

Urban planning Reducing consumption Adaptation Manage changes (e.g. worker transitions)

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What do we mean by "we"? What do we mean by "we"?

Everyone! ...but maybe not equally? Who is responsible for most of the emissions? Who is in the best position to lead action?

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Who can make changes Who can make changes

Personal National International

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Who can make changes Who can make changes

World system revolves around national governments International agencies generally lack "teeth" Coordination problems with individual action Rich countries have more power OECD Countries

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Who or what is holding us back? Who or what is holding us back?

The Economy Technology Complexity Corporations Politicians Public opinion Climate change deniers Structural limitations Capitalism? Representative democracy?

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The Economy The Economy

Mitigating climate change is expensive But more "expensive" to do nothing Maximum emissions reduction rate (3-5% p.a.) e.g. need to replace coal power plants before retiring them Short-term and "efficiency" focus of economics

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Technology Technology

Things we already have low/zero carbon replacements for: Electricity generation Cars / Local transport Buildings

Image Source: tec_estromberg (technology-1) via Flickr

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Technology Technology

Things we don't really have good low/zero carbon replacements for: Air Travel Shipping Meat (including fish) Plastic With some social changes, technology not really a barrier

Image Source: tec_estromberg (technology-1) via Flickr

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Complexity Complexity

Climate change is "Super Wicked": Time is running out The people causing the problem are involved in solving it No global authority to address it Easier to defer action

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Complexity Complexity

Climate change is a hard problem.... But, we're not really doing the "easy" things, e.g. Price on carbon National-level climate legislation (zero carbon bill) Ambitious Paris NDCs Planning for low-carbon future

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Corporations Corporations

Vested interests (esp. fossil fuel companies) Often have a lot of money and influence Spread disinformation, foster doubt But.... Highly reliant on consumer behaviour Also reliant on political influence

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Politicians Politicians

Shouldn't they be doing more to lead us forward? Influence of money in politics Short-term focus Politicians want to get re-elected

Image Source: Nick-D via Wikimedia Commons

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Public opinion Public opinion

Public opinion can shape policy Politicians want to keep voters happy What do people think about climate change?

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Three Types of Deniers Three Types of Deniers

People who don't believe climate change is happening People who don't believe it is caused by humans People who don't think it's a serious problem

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How many deniers are there? How many deniers are there?

Source: Pew Research Center (2015)

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How many deniers are there? How many deniers are there?

Agreement with reality and causes of climate change in NZ Agreement with reality and causes of climate change in NZ

Data Source: NZ Attitudes and Values Study (2014); Milfont et al. (2017)

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Does denial maer? Does denial maer?

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Does denial maer? Does denial maer?

• Approx. 10-20% of the population are deniers

70-80% concerned about climate change ...and want something done about it So shouldn't politicians be acting on this public concern?

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Issue salience Issue salience

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Issue salience Issue salience

Most people are concerned about climate change But most people are more concerned about other issues Usually a small number of issues on the political agenda at one time Most people don't vote with climate issues in mind Not enough public pressure on politicians

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Reforms probably needed Regulations/taxes needed "One economics, many recipes" Replacement? But with what? Would strong public engagement

• vercome corporate power?

Structural Issues - Capitalism Structural Issues - Capitalism

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Structural Issues - Democracy Structural Issues - Democracy

Authoritarianism Deliberative democracy or Anarchism Transition problems

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How do we move forward? How do we move forward?

Corporate power is a problem Public opinion/engagement is key Activism can help Voting is critical

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