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Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Comments on the 2019-20 Economic Outlook Presentation to the Addison County Economic Development Corporation December 7, 2018 Jeffrey B. Carr President and Senior Economist Economic & Policy Resources, Inc. Now the 2 nd Longest Up -
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No Longer Seeing Synchronized World GDP Growth...and Growth is Easing Back...
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Volatility is Back...Especially in Equities Prices
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Nine Years of Output Gains Has Had Its Benefits...
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Over 20 million Jobs Added and the Lowest Urate since the 1960s is “Nothing to Sneeze At...”
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But the Reality is that it has Been One of Slowest U.S. Labor Market Upturns Ever...
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TCJA of 2017 was supposed to spur a “Boom” in Business Investment...Started Off OK...but has ebbed...
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An Unprecedented Period of Low I-Rates...Which is Now Changing as the Fed “Normalizes” Policy.
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KEY-Debt Service is still lower than the early 1980’s...But Will it Last as the Fed Increases Interest Rates?
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Oil Prices Are Also Losing Traction...in an Evolving Oil Price World Where the U.S. has Now Become the Largest Global Producer...
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“Student Loan Debt” Has Exploded...Since 2003
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Inflation is Still Well Under-Control...
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Jobs in VT have Been Flat, Even Negative, Over the Last Four Months...
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VT Job Change Has Disappointed...especially Outside Northwest Vermont.
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House Values Have Firmed and are on the rise in all States...and Have “Recovered” in VT, MA and ME...
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Change in Average Wages by Region—Addison County Does OK....
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But Not So Well Versus the VT Average for Job Change...but Still Better then the Rest of VT.
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VT Job and Average Wage Change...Together
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“Slow-As-You Go” U.S. Outlook Per the “Fed”
According to the Fed’s Latest Mid-Year Forecast (from September, 2018 Release)
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Odds of a Recession Still Remain “Low...”
http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#qa=20160601003
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Or Are They Really…
http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#qa=20160601003
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