Convex elicitation of continuous properties Jessica Finocchiaro, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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convex elicitation of continuous properties

Convex elicitation of continuous properties Jessica Finocchiaro, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 22, 2022 270 likes •401 views

Introduction Main Result Summary Convex elicitation of continuous properties Jessica Finocchiaro, Rafael Frongillo University of Colorado- Boulder June 22, 2018 Introduction Main Result Summary Principal-agent problem You want to learn

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Convex elicitation of continuous properties

Jessica Finocchiaro, Rafael Frongillo

University of Colorado- Boulder

June 22, 2018

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Principal-agent problem

You want to learn something from a reporter. Punish them based on their error. L(r✱ y)

r is the report. y is the observed outcome.

Agent is seeking to minimize their expected loss.

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Definitions

A property is a function of a probability distribution Γ : ∆(Y) Ñ R A loss L : R ˆ Y Ñ R elicits a property Γ if for all p, tΓ(p)u = arg min

rPR EY„pL(r✱ Y)

Here, Y is finite

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Problem at hand

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Problem at hand

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Problem at hand

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Main result

Theorem (Informal) Let Γ be a real-valued, continuous property. Then Γ is elicitable ð ñ Γ is convex elicitable.

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Summary

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Summary

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Introduction Main Result Summary

What does this mean to EC?

Scoring Rule Markets Axioms

Tractable Trading Bounded Trader Budgets

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Introduction Main Result Summary

Thank you

Questions?