Countries to the Agro-industrial Agenda Domestic support: Why - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Countries to the Agro-industrial Agenda Domestic support: Why - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Nelson ILLESCAS 13 December 2017 | Buenos Aires, Argentina Concerns and Contributions of the Southern Cone Countries to the Agro-industrial Agenda Domestic support: Why negotiating still matters Nelson ILLESCAS, Director, INAI Foundation

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13 December 2017 | Buenos Aires, Argentina

Concerns and Contributions of the Southern Cone Countries to the Agro-industrial Agenda Domestic support: Why negotiating still matters

Nelson ILLESCAS, Director, INAI Foundation

Nelson ILLESCAS

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Source: Agroindustry Ministry - Argentina

Domestic support - Forecast to 2030

$ 0 $ 200 $ 400 $ 600 $ 800 $ 1,000 $ 1,200 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Billion USD AMS and De Minimis entitlements - 2005-2014, Forecast to 2030 at 6% growth in VoP

De Minimis AMS

Source: Ministry of Agroindustry - Argentina

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≤ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Domestic support - Notifications

2015 2016

Brazil, Colombia, Congo, Iceland, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Paraguay, Russia, Uruguay, etc.

8

Egypt, Gabon, Israel, Malawi, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Thailand, Togo

34 11 8 2

Albania, Armenia, Bahrain, Canada, Ecuador, European Union, India, Switzerland, Gambia, Vietnam, etc.

17

  • Rep. of Korea,

Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia

6

Bangladesh, Bolivia, El Salvador, Kenya, Mongolia, Morocco, Namibia, Turkey, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, etc.

30

Argentina, Australia, Chad, Honduras, Japan, Jordan, Peru, South Africa, UAE, USA, Zambia Croatia, Dominican Republic, Kyrgyz Rep., Lesotho, Madagascar, Qatar, Taiwan, Ukraine China, Philippines

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

LATAM (Ex. Southern Cone) United States Philipines India Mexico Pakistan South Korea Russia Southeast Asia Uruguay

  • Art. 6.2

Amber Box

Source: IFPRI.

Domestic support - Subsidies on agricultural inputs

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Billion USD

Producer Support Estimate (PSE) and Total (TSE)

* There is no data 2015 for Russia, so it was assumed similar to 2014. Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).

  • 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

PED-PSE PD-PSE PED-TSE PD-TSE

384 200 266 430

AVG 2003-05

21 % 79 %

AVG 2013-15

62 % 38 %

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Producer Support Estimate (PSE)

EU-28 Japan USA China 48% Indonesia South Korea 6% 4% 7% 5% 18%

Main Countries

282.3 106.3 42.4 37.1 31.7 21.1

Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).

Billion USD - AVG 2013-15

5.9 15 13.8

???

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63.8 31.9 31.5 27.5 23.7

Main Products

Billion USD - AVG. 2013-15

Producer Support Estimate (PSE)

Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).

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18.8 10.3 8.9 5.6 4.7

Main Products

Billion USD - AVG. 2013-15

Producer Support Estimate (PSE)

Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).

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ERAMA 2026/27 Zero PSE Pessimistic

  • 10%

Zero PSE

DOMESTIC SUPPORT ANALYSIS

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ERAMA 2026/27 Zero PSE Pessimistic

  • 10%

Zero PSE 166 billion USD 199 billion USD 19.7% 159 billion USD 19.9% 133 billion USD

DOMESTIC SUPPORT ANALYSIS World grain and

  • ilseed imports
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ABPU* Net Exports Change

(Tons)

* Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay

ERAMA Pessimistic

Domestic support - Results

0.7% 36 000 t 2.8% 174 000 t 20.40% 269 000 t 1.3% 57 000 t 3.1% 167 000 t 19.8% 220 000 t

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ERAMA Pessimistic

ABPU* Net Exports Change

(Tons)

Domestic support - Results

-9.7%

  • 424 000 t

3.2% 5 224 000 t 6.2% 2 402 000 t 11.7% 385 000 t 2.8% 4 360 000 t 6.2% 2 136 000 t 10.9% 918 000 t 38.9% 2 322 000 t

* Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay

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Different proposals on domestic support: CAIRNS Group Brazil and EU China and India Japan New Zealand, Australia, Canada and Paraguay Argentina Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes Other issues: Market Access (Paraguay and Peru) Special Safeguard Mechanism [SSM] (G-33) Special Agricultural Safeguard [SSG] (Russian Federation)

Proposals

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Final remarks

Results may be achieved in the future, but it should be kept in mind:

  • New subsidizers
  • New

types

  • f

aid: 6.2 Programs, Green Box (Insurance Programs) and De Minimis.

  • Support that causes trade distortion: how to establish a global

limit, what will be its nature (fixed or floating), what it should be applied to.

  • Disciplines anti-concentration of subsidies.
  • Transparency: updating notifications.
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Thank you!

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Or send us your queries to… inai@inai.org.ar www.inai.org.ar @Fundacion_INAI Fundación INAI Follow the publications of the INAI Foundation in ... INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS ON AGRICULTURE