D r o u g h 33.6 -45.5 33.6 -45.5 11 years 5.4 years 11 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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D r o u g h 33.6 -45.5 33.6 -45.5 11 years 5.4 years 11 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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D r o u g h 33.6 -45.5 33.6 -45.5 11 years 5.4 years 11 years 5.4 years years t years Figure 2. Precipitation anomalies during 11 years of the dust bowl (1930-1940) Station Set-up Montana Mesonet January 2018 4 36 ranchers

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  • 45.5

11 years

–33.6

5.4 years years

Figure 2. Precipitation anomalies during 11 years of the dust bowl (1930-1940) –33.6

5.4 years years

  • 45.5

11 years

D r

  • u

g h t

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Montana Mesonet

Station Set-up

4 January 2018

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36 ranchers Clyde Park and Two Dot

§ Early Warning Drought tools Helpful………………… 81.6% § Predicting range growth early in season……………. 82.9% § Knowing soil moisture and soil temperature ……..... 88.6% § Having soil moisture trend data to share …………... 100%

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Sometimes things aren’t quite as benign as they seem?

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FISHTAIL

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Date Sensor Reading (Centibars) 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Percentage Soil Moisture WET Rain Needed Danger Zone Not Used 6 Inch 12 Inch 18 Inch 6 in. Soil Temp

Dry Wet January 2018 7

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Montana Mesonet https://climate.umt.edu/mesonet/default.php

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Represented at governors drought

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Several more Ag Applications …….

§ Water balance in Crop rotations § Forest Wqater Balance § Fire

§ Stream flow

§ Water Resources § Many other uses § Orchards § Pest control GDD

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Sometimes things have a simple explanation

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Stillwater Rancher Quote

“L “Lee W ee When you f en you fir irst ca came t me to me a

  • me around
  • und 2

2001 abo about start arting this pro roject on my lan and I thought you were crazier than Hell……… ……… No Now I unders rstan and How val aluabl able this inf informa

  • rmation

ion ca can n be. e.”

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New York Times – September 3rd, 2016

state.climatologist@umontana.edu

climate.umt.edu

13 January 2018

Montana.mesonet@umontana.edu kevin.hyde@umontana.edu Lee Schmelzer lees@montana.edu 406-322-8035

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Weeds annual grasses

Weather .. water balance.. drought management. Crop rotation Higher value crops. Cattle.genomics and commercial industry Use of technology and research

  • By producers- often difficult to get producers to use some of the technology we have--- forage testing
  • By the general public – silver bulltett syndrome
  • Odd man out theis year grasshoppers
  • “It’s not the lack of tools that impedes genetic progress in beef cattle, it’s the lack of adoption of tools that impedes genetic progress,” says Matt Spangler, Extension beef genetics

specialist at the University of Nebraska. Consider the fact that expected progeny differences (EPDs) first became available to beef producers about four decades ago. At this year’s Beef Improvement Federation Research Symposium and Convention, Spangler shared survey data indicating approximately 30% of commercial cow-calf producers utilize EPDs as a primary tool for selecting bulls.

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Wha’s Next Weather and data availability?

§ Interactive weather platform for all the data to be available § https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi- bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=MT&rawsflag=3 § https://zentracloud.com/#/dashboard_detail

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Leave you with a few more things

§ Need your help to make sure the tools developed are useful.

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Next steps on soil moisture

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Step 1 Measure the soil properties controlling PAW Soil Samples Completed August 2019

How do we get to it?

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Integrated into maps like these Oklahoma http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/categ

  • ry/soil_moisture
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Decision Support Tools

23 January 2018

How to best deliver data? What products and tools? Current Conditions and Forecast

Compare Local to NWS Evaporative Demand Streamflow Conditions MT Drought Index Compare Stations View Montana Trends

Select Mesonet Station Station Status 3-day Soil Trends

MSU Extension Services

Interpret Soil Data

Current web interface

From this to this?

Climate.umt.edu à Montana Mesonet à Stations

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How M How Much F h For

  • rage

ge Will I Ha Will I Have T This Y his Year?

90 90% by y Jul uly y 1st

st

Ap April ril + May May + June Pr Precipitation Cr Crop Y Year P Precipitation (S (Sept – June June)

24

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Possible Yield with normal rainfall % of Normal Rain for water year Centibars of moisture Total PAW Linger 41 37 51 200 67 45 59 200 2.7 36.978 78.1% Van 91 169 200 200 102 170 200 200 22.398 Swz 198 24 18 200 1.8 32.118 65.8% 200 36 41 200 Church 1 27.798 Fishtail 9 17 14 3.85 43.188 87.4%

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Already Shaping Discussions!!!!

Represented at governors drought

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27 January 2018

Resilience – Adaptation – Prediction

Montana Mesonet

Montana State University College of Agriculture Agricultural Research Centers

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Important Websites

§ Montana Mesonet http://climate.umt.edu/mesonet/ § UMRB Drought Indicators Dashboard http://shiny.cfc.umt.edu:3838/drought_indicators/flex/ § Oklahoma / http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/soil_moi sture

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End of May

0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 4/1/2019 0:00 4/2/2019 14:00 4/4/2019 4:00 4/5/2019 18:00 4/7/2019 8:00 4/8/2019 22:00 4/10/2019 12:00 4/12/2019 2:00 4/13/2019 16:00 4/15/2019 6:00 4/16/2019 20:00 4/18/2019 10:00 4/20/2019 0:00 4/21/2019 14:00 4/23/2019 4:00 4/24/2019 18:00 4/26/2019 8:00 4/27/2019 22:00 4/29/2019 12:00 5/1/2019 2:00 5/2/2019 16:00 5/4/2019 6:00 5/5/2019 20:00 5/7/2019 10:00 5/9/2019 0:00 5/10/2019 14:00 5/12/2019 4:00 5/13/2019 18:00 5/15/2019 8:00 5/16/2019 22:00 5/18/2019 12:00 5/20/2019 2:00 5/21/2019 16:00 5/23/2019 6:00 5/24/2019 20:00 5/26/2019 10:00 5/28/2019 0:00 5/29/2019 14:00 5/31/2019 4:00

Chart Title

Port 1 ATMOS 41 All-in-one Weather Station mm Precipitation Port 2 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content Port 3 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content 0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 0.000 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 4/1/2018 0:00 4/2/2018 22:00 4/4/2018 20:00 4/6/2018 18:00 4/8/2018 16:00 4/10/2018 14:00 4/12/2018 12:00 4/14/2018 10:00 4/16/2018 8:00 4/18/2018 6:00 4/20/2018 4:00 4/22/2018 2:00 4/24/2018 0:00 4/25/2018 22:00 4/27/2018 20:00 4/29/2018 18:00 5/1/2018 16:00 5/3/2018 14:00 5/5/2018 12:00 5/7/2018 10:00 5/9/2018 8:00 5/11/2018 6:00 5/13/2018 4:00 5/15/2018 2:00 5/17/2018 0:00 5/18/2018 22:00 5/20/2018 20:00 5/22/2018 18:00 5/24/2018 16:00 5/26/2018 14:00 5/28/2018 12:00 5/30/2018 10:00

Chart Title

Port 2 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content Port 3 GS3 Moisture/Temp/EC % Water Content Port 1 ATMOS 41 All-in-one Weather Station mm Precipitation

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How has the data been used already?

Represented at governors drought CRP release in 2000’s Letter in 2005 alfalfa regional release because of data NAP grass loss determination easier

January 2018 30

How is the data already being used to help?

Insurance and disaster professional letters

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This weeks discussion

Represented at governors drought

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Soil moisture monitoring networks

§ Automated monitoring networks first emerged in late 1990’s

  • Oklahoma Mesonet
  • NRCS SCAN
  • MCSCN Montana

§ Today there is a large and growing system of networks around the world § Problem #1: In situ soil moisture measurements have not been used in any

  • perational drought

monitoring system until the last few years

Soil moisture stations currently contained in the ISMN. Green dots show the stations that are still measuring soil moisture, red dots the stations that were imported from the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank. (Wouter Dorigo) Station locations (>700) for some of the in situ soil moisture monitoring networks currently operational in the US. (Mike Cosh)

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Decision Support Tools

33 January 2018

How to best deliver data? What products and tools? Current Conditions and Forecast

Compare Local to NWS Evaporative Demand Streamflow Conditions MT Drought Index Compare Stations View Montana Trends

Select Mesonet Station Station Status 3-day Soil Trends

MSU Extension Services

Interpret Soil Data

Current web interface

From this to this?

Climate.umt.edu à Montana Mesonet à Stations

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Drought

§ Cumulative Rainfall data alone is a poor predictor of drought impacts. § Because: costly short term soil moisture deficits can occur in years of average or above average rainfall (Flash Drought)

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Other Tools

Graphic by: MSU Extension Water Quality

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Growing with Partnerships

36 January 2018

  • Bureau of Land Management
  • MSU Ag Extension Service
  • MT Dept Natural Resources &

Conservation

  • The Blackfoot Challenge
  • The Nature Conservancy
  • MT Conservation Districts
  • National Weather Service
  • Watershed coordination groups
  • Governor's Drought Committee
  • Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology
  • Bird Conservancy of the Rockies
  • National Mesonet System

Building and Sustaining a Shared Resource

  • Private Ranches
  • Rangeland Monitoring Working Group
  • Trout Unlimited
  • Confederated Salish Kootenai
  • Montana Stockgrowers
  • National Weather Service
  • Crow Agency
  • NOAA
  • National Forest Service
  • Natural Resources Conservation Service
  • MSU Ag Research Centers
  • Drought Early Warning System