Decision on the ISO 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Neil Millar - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision on the ISO 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Neil Millar - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision on the ISO 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Neil Millar Executive Director, Infrastructure Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session March 15-16, 2017 ISO Confidential Approving the plan means approving determinations and

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ISO Confidential

Decision on the ISO 2016-2017 Transmission Plan

Neil Millar Executive Director, Infrastructure Development Board of Governors Meeting General Session March 15-16, 2017

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ISO Confidential

Approving the plan means approving determinations and recommendations contained in the plan.

  • Two transmission projects:

– Both are new reliability projects each of which is less than $50 million – no policy driven projects – no economically driven projects

  • Canceling 13 - primarily local – previously approved

projects in PG&E’s service area

  • Identifying 16 transmission projects requiring further

evaluation in the 2017-2018 planning cycle No regional transmission solutions found to be needed are eligible for competitive solicitation

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ISO Confidential

The 2016-2017 Transmission Planning Process

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Phase 1 Development of ISO unified planning assumptions and study plan

  • State and Federal policy

requirements and directives

  • Demand forecasts, energy

efficiency, demand response

  • Renewable and

conventional generation additions and retirements

  • Input from stakeholders

Phase 3

  • Request for bids, receive

proposals, evaluate, and award to successful applicant to build identified reliability, policy and economic transmission projects. Technical Studies and Board Approval

  • Reliability analysis
  • Renewable delivery (policy) analysis
  • Economic analysis
  • Consider Transmission Alternatives, e.g.

preferred resources and energy storage.

  • Publish comprehensive transmission plan

Continued regional and sub-regional coordination

October 2017

Coordination of Conceptual Statewide Plan

April 2016

Phase 2

March 2017

ISO Board Approval

  • f Transmission Plan

Four Consultation Windows

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ISO Confidential

Transmission approvals over the last 6 years – over 30 projects a year until 2014-2015:

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Economic Policy Reliability

Transmission Plan Capital Cost in $ millions Delaney-Colorado River and Harry Allen-Eldorado

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ISO Confidential

The ISO’s reliability analysis led to the following:

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  • Two reliability projects are recommended in SCE’s

service territory:

– Lugo-Victorville 500 kV Upgrade - coordinated with LADWP ($18 million – SCE portion) – Big Creek Rating Increase Project ($6 million)

  • In the PG&E service territory:

– 13 previously approved projects are recommended to be cancelled – 15 have been identified as needing further review and scoping - 5 will proceed with concluding siting activities

  • One project in the SDG&E area needs further review
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ISO Confidential

13 projects are no longer required based on reliability and local capacity requirements and deliverability assessments:

  • Pease-Marysville #2 60 kV Line
  • Almaden 60 kV Shunt Capacitor
  • Monta Vista – Los Gatos – Evergreen 60 kV Project
  • Lockheed No. 1 115 kV Tap Reconductor
  • Mountain View/Whisman-Monta Vista 115 kV Reconductoring
  • Stone 115 kV Back-tie Reconductor
  • Kearney - Kerman 70 kV Line Reconductor
  • Cressey - North Merced 115 kV Line Addition
  • Taft-Maricopa 70 kV Line Reconductor
  • Natividad Substation Interconnection
  • Soledad 115/60 kV Transformer Capacity
  • Tesla-Newark 230 kV Path Upgrade
  • Vaca Dixon-Lakeville 230 kV Reconductoring

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ISO Confidential

Projects on hold and completing engineering activities

  • Management has identified that further review of the need and

scope for the following PG&E-area projects is required in the 2017-2018 planning cycle. – Midway-Andrew 230 kV Project – Spring Substation – Wheeler Ridge Junction Substation – Lockeford-Lodi Area 230 kV Development – Vaca-Davis Voltage Conversion Project

–

  • Management is recommending that the project sponsors do not

proceed with filings for permitting and certificates of public convenience and necessity until the ISO completes the reviews.

  • Completing the design and siting permitting activities (but not filing

for permits) will assist in the reviews.

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ISO Confidential

Projects on hold with all development suspended

  • For the following PG&E area projects, all development activities are

recommended to be put on hold until a review is complete.

– Gates-Gregg 230 kV Line – Watsonville Voltage Conversion – Atlantic-Placer 115 kV Line – Northern Fresno 115 kV Area Reinforcement – South of San Mateo Capacity Increase – Evergreen-Mabury Conversion to 115 kV – New Bridgeville Garberville No. 2 115 kV Line – Cottonwood-Red Bluff No. 2 60 kV Line Project and Red Bluff Area 230 kV Substation Project – Kern PP 115 kV Area Reinforcement – Wheeler Ridge-Weedpatch 70 kV Line Reconductor

  • In the SDG&E area, the Mission-Penasquitos project requires further

review.

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ISO Confidential

Oakland Area – reviewing potential alternatives for existing fossil-fueled Oakland Power Plant

  • The ISO is working with

Dynegy to assess the expected life of the plant, to aid in developing alternatives to address the reliability needs currently met by the plant.

  • The alternatives that the ISO

considered in the 2015-2016 transmission planning process remain valid to address the reliability needs.

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  • The leading alternative at this time is a combination of transmission

upgrades and preferred resources - a portfolio of demand response, energy efficiency, distributed generation and storage.

  • The ISO will continue to work with the Dynegy and PG&E and reassess the

situation in the 2017-2018 transmission planning process.

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ISO Confidential

The ISO’s policy-driven analysis focused on the 33% Renewables Portfolio Standard:

  • For assessing policy-driven transmission, the CPUC and CEC

provided direction on June 13, 2016 to re-use the same 33% RPS portfolios as in 2015-2016 cycle and avoid triggering new transmission for a 50% RPS at this time.

  • For the policy driven analysis with 33% RPS portfolios, the

ISO studied only on the Imperial, Baja and Arizona areas due to changes in transmission plans in the Imperial Irrigation District from the 2015-2016 Transmission Plan. No policy- driven requirements were identified.

  • Note that the portfolios used in the ISO’s informational 50%

RPS special studies were provided by CPUC staff through a collaborative effort, but not as the basis for policy-driven transmission

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ISO Confidential

Regional high voltage transmission access charge projection trended from January 1, 2017 values:

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* Existing returns are maintained for existing PTO rate base, and 11% return on equity is

assumed for new transmission capital.

$6 $7 $8 $9 $10 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2017 Projection with recommended approvals 2016 Projection with recommended approvals

$14.11 $13.91 January 1 2017 HV TAC very close to January 1 2016 level due to significantly larger negative TRBAA and other revenue requirement

  • ffsetting adjustments.

Regional High Voltage TAC $/MWh

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ISO Confidential

Incremental impact of post-2016 capital expenditures related to all ISO-approved transmission projects

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* Existing returns are maintained for existing PTO rate base, and 11% return on equity is

assumed for new transmission capital. Incremental Regional High Voltage TAC $/MWh

  • $0.50

$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2015-16 Plan - relative to 2016 2016-17 Plan - ISO Approved Expenditures

Shift primarily due to increased forecast cost

  • f previously approved

projects and, to a lesser degree, new capital projects and other corrections Shift due to deferral of previously approved projects

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ISO Confidential

Six special studies on emerging issues were undertaken in this cycle:

  • Continuation of frequency response efforts through

improved generator modeling

  • Risks of early economic retirement of gas fleet
  • 50% renewable generation (in-state analysis, out of state

analysis and Interregional Transmission Project evaluation)

  • Large scale storage benefits
  • Gas/electric reliability coordination
  • Slow response resources in local capacity areas

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ISO Confidential

Stakeholder feedback provided a wide range of views:

  • Concerns about specific projects, and the ISO’s basis for

moving forward

– Projects driven by high voltage concerns – Previously approved projects – Projects not recommended for approval

  • Deliverability of CPUC-provided 33% renewable

generation portfolios for policy-driven transmission

  • Support for continuation of special studies

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ISO Confidential

Management recommends the Board approve the 2016-2017 ISO Transmission Plan.

  • Continues to pursue low emissions strategies in

addressing reliability needs of the ISO controlled grid

  • Enables the state’s 33% RPS goals and sets a

foundation for higher renewable energy goals

  • Provides for prudent and economic development of the

transmission system

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