Development of AIM/Enduse Enduse Development of AIM/ in world - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development of AIM/Enduse Enduse Development of AIM/ in world - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The 11 The 1 1th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop 19- -21, February 200 21, February 2006 6 19 Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall Ohyama NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Development of AIM/Enduse

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Development of AIM/ Development of AIM/Enduse Enduse in world regions in world regions

The 1 The 11 1th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop 19 19-

  • 21, February 200

21, February 2006 6 Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Mikiko Mikiko KAINUMA KAINUMA Yuzuru Yuzuru MATSUOKA MATSUOKA Junichi FUJINO Junichi FUJINO Go HIBINO Go HIBINO Maho Maho MIYASHITA MIYASHITA Osamu AKASHI Osamu AKASHI

Tatsuya HANAOKA Tatsuya HANAOKA

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Enduse/SDB type modules

Energy end-use, Renewable energy, Waste treatment/disposal, Resource recycling

AIM/Ecosystem [country] Bottom-up, enduse, SDB approach Global National AIM/Ecosystem [global] Bottom up/accounting models AIM/Material AIM/CGE AIM/Enduse models (Energy, Materials) AIM/Impact[Policy]… Simplified model for

Long-term assessment of climate change

Process/SDB type modules

Land-use, Population-urbanization Forestry, Agriculture Water Resource and Infrastructures Air Load/emission

Overview of AIM family Overview of AIM family

CGE approach

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SLIDE 3

Feature of AIM/ Feature of AIM/Enduse[Global Enduse[Global] ]

Regional scale: 21 global regional aggregations 21 global regional aggregations but, improve detail data in a national level but, improve detail data in a national level Temporal scale: 2000 (Base year) 2000 (Base year) – – 2020 (Target year) 2020 (Target year) but, plan to extend but, plan to extend upto upto 2050 2050 Gas classifications: CO CO2

2, CH

, CH4

4, N

, N2

2O, HFC, PFC, SF

O, HFC, PFC, SF6

6,

, （ （CFC, HCFC CFC, HCFC） ） but plan to consider SO but plan to consider SO2

2,

, NOx NOx, PM, BC/OC , PM, BC/OC Sector classifications: Multiple sectors Multiple sectors

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SLIDE 4

Sector coverage Sector coverage

Sector classifications: Sector classifications:

  • Power generation sector

Power generation sector : Hibino : Hibino

  • Industry sector

Industry sector : Hibino : Hibino

  • Residential sector

Residential sector : Miyashita : Miyashita

  • Commercial sector

Commercial sector : Miyashita : Miyashita

  • Transport sector

Transport sector : Akashi : Akashi

  • Agriculture sector

Agriculture sector : : Pandy Pandy → → Hanaoka Hanaoka

  • CH

CH4

4 & N

& N2

2O emissions

O emissions : Nair : Nair → → Hanaoka Hanaoka

  • F

F-

  • gas emissions

gas emissions : Hanaoka : Hanaoka

  • Energy supply & price

Energy supply & price : : Fujino Fujino

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SLIDE 5

Geographical coverage Geographical coverage

Region Code 1) Japan

Japan

2) China

China

3) India India 4) Indonesia

Indonesia

5) Korea

Korea

6) Thailand Thailand 7) Other South-east Asia 8) Other South Asia 9) Middle East 10) Australia 11) New Zealand 12) Canada 13) USA 14) EU-15 in Western Europe 15) EU-10 in Eastern Europe 16) Russia 17) Argentine 18) Brazil 19) Other Latin America 20) Africa 21) Rest of the World JPN CHN IND IDN KOR THA XSE XSA XME AUS NZL CAN USA XE15 XE10 RUS ARG BRZ XLM XAF XRW

Asia regions in detail

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SLIDE 6

Preliminary Results Preliminary Results

We focused on: to estimate marginal abatement costs and to estimate marginal abatement costs and evaluate GHG mitigation potentials evaluate GHG mitigation potentials in world regions in 2020.

  • Region

Region-

  • wise

wise mitigation potentials and costs

  • Sector

Sector-

  • wise

wise mitigation potentials and costs

Results presented at Informal Experts Meeting on Modeling Activities dealing with Climate Change

  • rganized by Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in September 2004
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SLIDE 7

Outline of simulation Outline of simulation

Target Year: 2020 2020 Discount rate: (1) 5% (private & public) 5% (private & public) (2) 33%(private), 10% (public) 33%(private), 10% (public) Simulation cases

  • Reference case (technology

Reference case (technology-

  • frozen case)

frozen case)

i.e.) the case under existing technology options with the same technical and economic characteristics as in 2000

  • Advanced technologies case

Advanced technologies case

i.e.) the market selections of realistic advanced technologies

Reduction potentials and abatement costs Reduction potentials and abatement costs

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SLIDE 8

5% 33%(Private), 10%(Public) < 0 < 100 < 300 < 0 < 100 < 300 CO2 Steel 395 571 642 338 486 546 Other manufacture 1,045 1,850 1,855 196 1,195 1,898 Indutry total 1,440 2,421 2,496 533 1,682 2,444 Residential 210 330 351 22 110 281 Commercial 307 474 483 56 275 373 Transportation 1,298 1,826 2,481 448 542 1,233 Agriculture Others Power generation 3,026 3,366 3,526 3,010 3,082 3,463 Total 6,282 8,417 9,337 4,069 5,690 7,795 CH4 Agriculture 42 330 32 152 Energy 797 2,005 2,005 478 2,001 2,005 Total 797 2,048 2,335 478 2,033 2,158 N2O ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ HFCs,PFCs,SF6 (4%) 84 796 859 ‐ ‐ ‐ Total 7,163 11,260 12,531 4,548 7,723 9,953 Discount rate Marginal abatement cost 2000US$

Mt-CO2 in the year 2020

Reduction potentials in 2020 Reduction potentials in 2020

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SLIDE 9

< US$ 0, 2020 < US$ 100, 2020 Discount rate = 5%

1,000 2,000 3,000 Manufacture - CO2 Residential & Commecial - CO2 Transportation - CO2 Energy industry

  • CO2

Energy industry

  • CH4

Agriculture - CH4 HFCs,PFCs,SF6 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2eq) Developed Developing /Transition 1,000 2,000 3,000 Manufacture - CO2 Residential & Commecial - CO2 Transportation - CO2 Energy industry

  • CO2

Energy industry

  • CH4

Agriculture - CH4 HFCs,PFCs,SF6 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2eq) Developed Developing /Transition

2.1 Gt-CO2 and 5.0 Gt-CO2 3.4 Gt-CO2 and 7.9 Gt-CO2

Regional Breakdown: Reduction potentials Regional Breakdown: Reduction potentials

(Developed and Developing/Transition) (Developed and Developing/Transition)

in the year 2020

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SLIDE 10

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Japan China India Indonesia Korea Thailand Other South-east Asia Other South Asia Middle East Australia New Zealand Canada USA EU-15 in Western Europe EU-10 in Eastern Europe Russia Argentine Brazil Other Latin America Africa Rest of the World

Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2) US$ 100-300/t-CO2 US$ 0-100/t-CO2 < US$ 0/t-CO2

Reduction potentials in 21 regions Reduction potentials in 21 regions

Discount rate = 5% in the year 2020

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SLIDE 11

2,307 1,520 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2000 2020 Frozen AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 AC < 0 AC < 100 AC < 300 CO2 Emission (Mt-CO2) Reduction Emission 2020 DR= 33% (-25%) (-15%) (-17%) (-28%) (-21%) (-24%) 2020 DR= 5% DR=Discount rate AC = Abatement Cost (US$/tCO2) +787

Discount Rate Mt-CO2 vs frozen 33% 338 15% 486 21% 546 24% 5% 395 17% 571 25% 642 28% less than 300 less than 300 CO2 Reduction Abatement Cost US$/tCO2 less than 0 less than 100 less than 0 less than 100

115 175 200 58 74 79 46 67 74 14 21 24 14 21 22 74 97 108 17 32 40 100 200 300 400 500 600 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t- CO2 < US$300/t- CO2 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Developed Developing Others Brazil EU-10 in Eastern Europe India Russia China Discount rate = 33% 124 124 124 88 88 88 68 68 68 28 28 28 15 15 66 66 47 47 25 25 26 66 15 20 14 100 200 300 400 500 600 < US$0/t-CO2 < US$100/t- CO2 < US$300/t- CO2 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Others Coke dry type quenching High efficiency heating furnace Increase of coal injection LDG & latent heat recovery Continuous caster Retire of OHF Large size blast furnace Large size coke oven Furnace gas recovery Discount rate = 33%

Reduction potentials Reduction potentials in s in steel sector teel sector

Steel production contributes to the largest CO2 emissions share in industry sector

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SLIDE 12

Developed

(MtCO2)

Developing/Transition

(MtCO2)

High efficiency gasoline engine (VVLT, GDI etc) 632 Existing type of power plant (coal ,gas) 2,462 Existing type of power plant (coal ,gas) 546 Use of instrument air, low bleed pneumatic devices* 676 Inverter control for motor 216 Gas high efficiency industrial furnace 449 Fluorescent of incandescent type 143 Inverter control for motor 431 Domestic refrigeration: recovery 129 Coal bed methane ventilation

  • xidizer for heat**

232

* Recovery of CH4 leakage from natural gas pipeline and well ** Recovery of CH4 in coal mine

under 100 US$ marginal abatement costs in 2020

(Discount rate = 5%)

Technology with large reduction potentials Technology with large reduction potentials

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SLIDE 13
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

Developed Developing/Transition

(Discount rate = 5%)

Marginal abatement cost of developed Marginal abatement cost of developed and developing countries in 2020 and developing countries in 2020

left-right reversal

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SLIDE 14
  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

  • 100
  • 50

50 100 150 200 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2) Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

3,400 Mt-CO2 52 US$ Billion 4,200 Mt-CO2 120 US$ Billion 4,900 Mt-CO2 196 US$ Billion

Developed Developing/Transition

Marginal abatement cost of developed Marginal abatement cost of developed and developing/transition economies and developing/transition economies

(Discount rate = 5%)

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SLIDE 15

Global reduction potential in 2020: 4.5 - 7.2 Gt-CO2eq in no-regret case 7.7 - 11.3 Gt-CO2eq under 100 US$/t-CO2 marginal costs if we move into action and take countermeasures now. Regional reduction potential in 2020 (5% discount rate) : in no-regret case: 2.1 Gt-CO2eq and 5.0 Gt-CO2eq under 100 US$/t-CO2 marginal abatement costs: 3.4 Gt-CO2eq and 7.9 Gt-CO2eq in developed countries and developing/transition economies, respectively

Preliminary Findings: Preliminary Findings: How much reduction could be possible? How much reduction could be possible?

It is essential to set up frameworks considering transfers of te It is essential to set up frameworks considering transfers of technologies chnologies and financial aid to the developing regions. and financial aid to the developing regions.

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SLIDE 16

Remaining issues Remaining issues

  • 1. Update of database such as new advanced
  • 1. Update of database such as new advanced

technologies, grass technologies, grass-

  • roots countermeasures.

roots countermeasures.

  • 2. Future scenarios and determination of service
  • 2. Future scenarios and determination of service

demands demands of

  • f enduse

enduse services in each sector. services in each sector.

  • 3. Hard
  • 3. Hard-
  • linkage among sector models

linkage among sector models

This analysis was based on realistic technologies with current cost estimates. Therefore, it may be possible to reduce more if new advanced technologies become available in the future. We have been developing database and considering We have been developing database and considering more appropriate methods how to determine service more appropriate methods how to determine service demands in each sector. demands in each sector.

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SLIDE 17

Current Major Projects Current Major Projects

Japan Low Carbon Society Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050 Scenarios toward 2050

Mitigation Target AIM/Enduse [county] AIM/Material Socio- economic models

Model Output

AIM/ Impact[Policy ]

Aimplified integrated assessment model for climate stabilization Global emission paths to climate stabilization

AIM/ CGE[Global]

Global multi- regional CGE type Energy- Economic model Reduction potentials and abatement cost curves

AIM/ Enduse[global ]

Bottom- up type Energy- emission model

AIM/Impact

Process model for assessing detailed climate impacts Regional impact and Adaptation details Regional economic details

  • n climate

vulnerability and adaptation potential Macro- economic driving forces on energy consumption and GHG emissions

Mitigation Target AIM/Enduse [Country] AIM/CGE [Country] Socio- economic models Mitigation Target AIM/Enduse [Country] AIM/CGE [Country] Socio- economic models

Low Carbon Scenarios Low Carbon Scenarios in China, India, Thailand in China, India, Thailand

With cooperation of AIM team in Asia With cooperation of AIM team in Asia

Burden sharing

Global scale National scale

Strategic database

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SLIDE 18

Further Cooperation among AIM team

In the near future, we appreciate cooperation: In the near future, we appreciate cooperation:

  • Update of Strategic Database

Update of Strategic Database

  • Data of dwelling types in Residential sector

Data of dwelling types in Residential sector

  • Data of person trip in transport sector

Data of person trip in transport sector

  • Data of BC

Data of BC and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on and so on… … Thank you very much for your cooperation! Thank you very much for your cooperation!

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SLIDE 19

その他予備資料

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SLIDE 20

Replacement Replacement New demands New demands

X X+1

Introduction Introduction in year X+1 in year X+1 Service demand

Logic of technology selection Logic of technology selection

Year

As private industries take into account high investment risk for energy conserving technologies, a payback period of 3 a payback period of 3-

  • years

years is usually assumed. e.g.) the discount rate corresponding to 3-years payback is about 33% based on the assumption of 30 years lifetime for steel plants.

Technology A Technology B Tech A ＜ Tech B ⇒ Tech A is selected Initial cost Running cost for X years

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SLIDE 21

Logic of technology selection Logic of technology selection

Technology A Initial cost Running cost for X years

Extention of pay back period Carbon tax

Technology B Technology A Technology B Initial cost Running cost for X years

(1) Replacement, new demands

Tech A ＜ Tech B ⇒ Tech B is selected Tech A ＜ Tech B ⇒ Tech B is selected

Replacement Replacement New demands New demands

X X+1

Introduction Introduction in year X+1 in year X+1 Service demand

Year

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X X+1

Service demand

Technology A Technology B Year

(2) Substitution of existing technology

Logic of technology selection Logic of technology selection

Initial cost Running cost for X years

Target for substitution Target for substitution in year X+1 in year X+1

Initial cost Running cost for X years Tech A ＜ Tech B ⇒ Tech B is selected