Dr. Marc Anthony Fusaro, Ph.D. Director, Center for Business and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Dr. Marc Anthony Fusaro, Ph.D. Director, Center for Business and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 31, 2023 434 likes •551 views

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Dr. Marc Anthony Fusaro, Ph.D. Director, Center for Business and Economic Development and Associate Professor of Economics October 26, 2017 1 Outline Emporia State Economic Index is a new measure of economic activity in

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October 26, 2017

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

  • Dr. Marc Anthony Fusaro, Ph.D.

Director, Center for Business and Economic Development and Associate Professor of Economics

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Outline

2 Bureau of Labor Statistics

Fs-654654

  • Emporia State Economic Index is a new measure of economic activity in Kansas
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What’s Wrong with State GDP?

3 Bureau of Labor Statistics

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  • The ultimate measure of the economy:

GDP

  • Look at the last year for Kansas:
  • 2016Q3 – Jul-Aug-Sept

– $153,801

  • 2016Q4 – Oct-Nov-Dec

– $154,574

  • 2017Q1 – Jan-Feb-Mar

– $155,204

  • 2017Q2 – Apr-May-Jun

– we do not know yet

  • 2017Q3 – Jul-Aug-Sept
  • we do not know yet
  • Two problems:
  • Timeliness
  • Frequency
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SLIDE 4

How Can We Do Better?

4 Bureau of Labor Statistics

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  • What do we know that is timely and frequent?
  • Employment Data
  • Housing Sales
  • Philadelphia Fed Coincident Index
  • Imports-Export Data
  • Sales Taxes
  • Oil Prices
  • We use this data to estimate monthly state GDP
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Measured vs. Estimated GDP

5 Bureau of Labor Statistics

*Step 1: Use quarterly data to understand the relationship between GDP and those variables. *Step 2: Use this knowledge to estimate monthly GDP. *Step 3: Use the known quarterly data to correct the estimates.

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Kanas GDP in Context

6 Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Kanas GDP in Context

7 Bureau of Labor Statistics

We predict GDP for Kansas plus a 6-state reference group\

percent change of ESEI, August 2016 to August 2017\

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SLIDE 8

Emporia State Economic Index

8 Bureau of Labor Statistics

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  • From the GDP estimate, we calculate an Index
  • First we calculate per capita GDP
  • GDP / Population
  • Then we rebase this estimate to the 2009 average across the states
  • Per Cap GDP / 2009 per cap GDP average
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Economic activity

9 Bureau of Labor Statistics

  • KS is mid-pack
  • KS leads MO
  • AR trails
  • AR is below 100
  • NE sets the pace
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Most recent activity

10 Bureau of Labor Statistics

  • KS has strong growth
  • OK and MO are stronger
  • NE has dropped a bit
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Conclusion

11 Bureau of Labor Statistics

  • Monthly GDP is an innovative tool to understand and predict economic activity
  • The new economic index is more timely and frequent than the BEA data

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