Economic Impacts of the Ebola Outbreak Rachel Glennerster (IGC Lead - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Economic Impacts of the Ebola Outbreak Rachel Glennerster (IGC Lead Academic for Sierra Leone and JPAL) Joint work with Tavneet Suri (IGC Agriculture and MIT Sloan)

Sierra Leone: economic background • GNI per capita of $1,750 PPP (2013) vs $2,250 for Kenya • Heath expenditure per capita $96 (2012), life expectancy at birth 45 years • Food insecurity peaks in August prior to rice harvest in September 2

Ebola cases: June 29 3

Ebola cases: August 15 4

Ebola cases: August 21 5

Ebola cases: August 31 6

Ebola cases: September 4 7

Ebola cases: September 11 8

Ebola cases: September 18 9

Economic impacts: areas of concern • Government restrictions on bars, motor cycle taxis, continuing cordon of districts, nationwide 3 day curfew • External trade, manufacturing and mining: • Restrictions on flights and shipping • Repatriation of many expats • Domestic costs of uncertainty • Postponement of discretionary purchases and general activity • Tightening credit, risk premiums rising? delays in payments? • Restrictions on internal trade, distribution of basic goods 10

Good rains for a good harvest 11

Market survey: prices and traders 12

Price: Imported rice 13

Price: Domestic rice 14

Price: Staple foods 15

Traders: Domestic rice 16

Traders: Staple foods 17

Overview • 21% of farmers report having started harvests in September 2014 (As opposed to 8% in August 2014) • Price of domestic rice is lower in cordon areas than in 2012 • important to not flood these markets with too much rice. • Number of traders of local rice is lower by about 40% compared to this time in 2012 in cordon districts • If this translates into fewer traders purchasing rice from farmers this could negatively affect farmers’ incomes 18

Overview (contd) • Though price of rice, gari and palm oil are similar to previous years, • a handful of markets, especially in Kailahun are showing price spikes for imported and domestic rice • important to ensure that these markets receive inflows of imported rice • 17 markets out of 155 contacted in September reported to be closed, including because of Ebola • 9 of these markets reported that traders continue to sell produce from home • Petrol prices are similar in cordon and non-cordon areas 19

Pdf: Domestic Rice Price 20

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