ECONOMICS AND OUTLOOK Steve Kluemper Vice President Credit - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PRODUCER ECONOMICS AND OUTLOOK

Steve Kluemper Vice President – Credit steven.kluemper@greenstonefcs.com

GreenStone

100+ year old cooperative $8+ billion in loans & leases 24,000+ ag/rural members $318 million paid in patronage in 13 years Loan, lease, tax, accounting, treasury, insurance and technology services 94% customer satisfaction 500+ employees, 36 branches Livestock, Crops & Consumer Diversification

U.S. AGRICULTURE FINANCIAL METRICS

Source: USDA

Incomes have risen and recently dropped off Volatility has increased 2003-2013 decade of profitability

Source: AgriBank GDP indexed Real Dollars

USDA annually projects 10-year income Projections have continued to decrease Still not bad from a historical perspective

USDA Projections

USDA Baseline Projections - February 2018 2017F 2018F 2019F 2023F 2018 Bank Prime Rate Projections 4.00 4.40 5.10 6.00 2018 Corn Farm Price Projections 3.20 3.30 3.35 3.45 2018 Soybean Farm Price Projections 9.30 9.40 9.45 9.60 2018 Beef Farm Price Projections 121.01 116.50 111.24 101.00 2018 Pork Farm Price Projections 52.31 48.07 45.23 48.68 2018 All Milk Price Projections 17.70 17.35 17.65 17.05 2018 Sugar Beet Farm Price Projections 47.10 47.02 46.74 48.69

Outside equity deleveraged ag in 1980’s Much came from creditors Debt levels continue to grow

Debt / Income under 4.00 is the goal USDA projection with no new debt = 6.0x

MICHIGAN METRICS

Much volatility since 2003 Breakeven net farm income in 2016 Row Crops, Dairy, Eggs all down in 2016

Quality, Timely Information Needed

Quality financial information critical to decision making and risk management Timely information is as important and should be a priority Need to know where you are, to know how to get where you are going Start simple, create curiosity, develop demand for deeper dives

Inputs

Farm Name Year Acres Farmed Current Assets M&E Assets Total Assets Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Annual Gross Revenues Operating Expenses Depreciation Expense Interest Expense Income Tax Expense Other Expenses Owner Withdrawals Term Debt Principal Payments

Row Crop Peer Comparison

109 farms with 10 year trends $1.5+ billion assets 406+ thousand acres farmed Median farm size of 2,700 acres

Dairy Peer Comparison

122 dairies (87 in Michigan) with 10 year trends $2.8+ billion assets 200+ thousand cows in Michigan 55+ thousand cows in Wisconsin 1,000 cows median herd

Net Worth divided by Total Assets

Net Worth divided by Total Assets

Adjusted Net Income before Interest and Depreciation Expenses less Principal and Interest Payments per Acre Farmed

$2 per Cwt. spread between 25th and 75th percentiles is mostly explained by WI vs. MI

Adjusted Net Income before Interest and Depreciation Expenses less Principal and Interest Payments per Cwt. of Milk Sold

Current Assets minus Current Liabilities per Acre Farmed

Current Assets minus Current Liabilities per Cwt. of Milk Sold

GREENSTONE’S APPROACH

GreenStone’s Goals – 2009 & 2015

Build on reputation as preferred ag lender

• Past, current and future generations

Be proactive in everything we do

• Internally and externally
• Anticipate & address cash flow shortages

Get customer through the cycles

• Work with viable plans and shared solutions
• Assist others with recapitalizing their business

Cautious in good times & Courageous in bad times

GreenStone’s Approach

Each customer’s strengths and weaknesses are analyzed to prescribe the right solution

GreenStone’s Approach

Awareness & sense of urgency

• Identify and pursue options

Frequent and detailed communication

• Include all stakeholders, owners, creditors,

consultants, accountants, legal, etc.

• Agree on and document future expectations
• Legal documentation, covenants, entity reviews

GreenStone’s Approach

Financial and operational information

• Another form of communication
• Verification of financial information and

projections to minimize surprises

• Set expectations for quality and timeliness
• Cash burn analysis models
• Liquidity analysis – another communication tool
• Reasonable projections
• Scenario analysis

GreenStone’s Approach

Re-amortize debt to match useful life of assets

• Give borrower best chance of making it through
• Do it while we are both willing and able
• Do it while interest rates remain attractive

Train inexperienced staff and customers with team approach and experienced staff Look for competent consultants and cooperative capital

Summary

Most cash flows could be negative for 5 years Assets will lose significant value Debt will be reduced or at least rebalanced Quality financial statements and projections are required for management and bank decisions Decisions should focus on per unit profitability, risk scenario analysis and liquidity Proactive communication, planning & execution Strong bank competition for strong prospects We’ll get through it with a sense of urgency

Lender’s Toolbox

Adjust repayment terms to type of asset Limit capital spending and owner withdrawals Have a Plan B and Exit Plan Consider alternative sources of capital Frequent lender/borrower meetings Interest only payments for a period of time Risk-based pricing Monthly or weekly cash flow projections Customer and other creditors “all-in”

Advice to Producers

Understand and manage costs, risks & returns Question “we’ve always done it that way” Maximize underperforming & excess resources

• Allocate capital from low to high return assets
• Look for new capital with consultants

Utilize outside professional advisors Minimize family and capital expenditures Prioritize accurate, real-time records

• Financial and operational
• Historical and projected

Advice for Unsecured Lenders

Have written credit policies, procedures and strategies approved by sales, credit, management and the board

• Required information, credit limits, terms,

conditions, security, risks, authorities, exceptions

Communicate policies with consistent actions to give credit & sales strength to enforce them When risks turn into repayment problems, encourage proactiveness and planning Secured creditors will get paid first but will work with you if you are proactive

PRODUCER ECONOMICS AND OUTLOOK

Steve Kluemper Vice President – Credit steven.kluemper@greenstonefcs.com