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Emissions Inventory and Modeling: India Presentation Presented by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad Emissions Inventory and Modeling: India Presentation Presented by P.R. Shukla Presented at The 10th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 10-12, 2005 Presentation Agenda 1. Multi-gas

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Presented at The 10th International AIM Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan, March 10-12, 2005 Presented by

P.R. Shukla

Emissions Inventory and Modeling: India Presentation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

1. Multi-gas Emissions inventory assessment

Period: 1985 to 2005 Gases

CO2 CH4 N2O

Updating based on India’s Initial National Communication

2. AIM/Local model application for managing electricity sector emissions

National and State Level Applications

SO2 CO2

Period of Analysis: 1990 to 2030 Baseline (past) and Policy (future) Assessment

3. Conclusions and Future Work

Presentation Agenda

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Multi-gas Emissions Inventory Assessment

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Emissions contributions of Different sectors to GHGs from India: 1994

. Waste Agriculture 28% LULUCF 1%

  • Ind. proc

. 8% Energy 61% 2%

55 380 793 200 400 600 800 1000 CO2 CH4 N2O CO

2 eq ('000 Gg)

CO2 65% CH4

31% N2O 4%

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Post NATCOM Changes

  • Earlier estimates used few India specific coefficients + IPCC default emission factors
  • NATCOM updated emissions coefficients and estimate activity levels (e.g.)

Measured value of emissions co-efficient for cement production 6% higher than IPCC default value Measured heat value of coking coal 20% higher than IPCC default value

  • Increase of 8% emissions from previous estimates of CO2
  • Change in carbon emissions factors, esp. Indian coal, explains 1.4% of increase
  • Industrial process emissions from sources that were not captured in earlier estimates. These add

about 26 Mt-CO2 to the “Other industries” category, explaining 3.2% of the upward revision

  • Improvement activity data and reallocation of emissions for some categories, such as “other

sectors” and “Other industries”. Activity data changes contributed 2.6% of the upward revision

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sectoral CO2 emissions: Mt-CO2/year

Sectors 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Power 146 213 379 517 638 Road 45 67 82 116 143 Railway 20 14 6 5 6 Aviation 2 2.5 3 4 5 Shipping 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1 Cement industry 28 43 56 77 98 Steel industry 56 74 83 92 103 Fertilizer industry 20 22 23 23 24 Other industries 62 82 91 98 109 Other sectors 57 76 92 97 102 Total 436 593 816 1030 1229

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

District level CO2 emissions: 1985 & 2005

1985 2005

10 20 30 >40 CO2 Million Tons

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CH4 emissions: Million Ton CH4

Sources 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Enteric fermentation 8.80 9.00 9.42 9.60 9.62 Paddy Cultivation 4.01 4.02 4.08 4.03 4.02 Biomass burnt for energy 1.61 1.62 1.67 1.76 1.80 MSW disposal 0.62 0.68 0.75 0.84 0.96 Manure Management 0.90 0.95 0.99 1.01 1.00 Oil & Natural Gas production and refining 0.23 0.50 0.65 0.94 1.13 Waste Water disposal 0.36 0.39 0.45 0.56 0.67 Coal Production 0.51 0.57 0.67 0.72 0.79 Agriculture crop residue burning 0.17 0.18 0.057 0.183 0.182 Total CH4 17.21 17.92 18.73 19.64 20.18

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

District level CH4 emissions

1985 2005

50 100 150 >200 CH4 Thousand Tons

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

N2O emission: Sector Shares

2005

Field burning of agriculture residue 10% Waste 4% Industrial processes 6% Fuel combustion 7% Manure management 3% Indirect soil emissions 12% Synthetic fertiliser use 59%

1985

Field burning of agriculture residue 11% Waste 4% Industrial processes 4% Fuel combustion 6% Manure management 3% Indirect soil emissions 13% Synthetic fertiliser use 60%

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Sectoral SO2 emission: Thousand tons/year

Sources 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Power

723.0 1046.8 1745.0 2380.4 2937.5

Steel

210.0 262.5 279.5 309.8 346.9

Fertiliser

125.0 105.9 125.1 124.3 129.7

Cement

74.2 97.2 107.7 160.0 206.0

Other Industries

437.9 576.5 604.6 651.1 724.2

Road

254.9 200.8 243.5 137.8 84.9

Rail

130.0 69.5 27.0 11.3 12.2

Shipping

6.0 8.0 9.8 13.1 14.8

Aviation

7.9 8.8 5.6 7.4 9.3

Biomass burning

215.0 216.0 217.0 215.0 210.0

Sulfuric Acid

40.0 45.0 53.1 61.3 66.0

Lead Smelting

6.0 7.8 10.8 13.0 14.8

Zinc Smelting

15.0 15.8 14.4 15.3 16.0

Copper Smelting

16.0 26.7 41.2 49.7 52.0

Other sectors

130.0 160.0 177.6 190.0 192.0

Total

2390.8 2847.3 3662.0 4339.5 5016.3

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

District level SO2 emissions

1985 2005

50 100 150 >200 SO2 Thousand Tons

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

NOX emissions: Sector Shares

1985 2005

Power 30% Aviation 1% Steel 5% Brick 3% Other industries 6% Biomass burning 15% Nitric acid production <1% Other sectors 1% Cement 3% Rail 3% Navigation <1% Road 33%

Other industries Power 18% Road 25% Navigation <1% Rail 6% Cement 2% Nitric acid Production and others <2% Biomass burning 28% 10% Brick 4% Steel 6% Aviation 1%

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Gas/Pollutant 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CAGR (1985-2005) CO2 436 593 816 1030 1229 5.3 CH4 17.21 17.92 18.73 19.64 20.18 0.8 N2O 0.134 0.158 0.185 0.219 0.258 3.3 PFC (CO2 Eq) 3.03 5.05 5.60 7.12 8.77 5.5 HFC (CO2 Eq)

  • 0.873

2.066 5.076 9.777 17.5 SF6 (CO2 Eq)

  • 0.087

2.084 88.7 SO2 2.39 2.85 3.66 4.34 5.02 3.8 Nox 2.11 2.64 3.46 4.35 5.12 4.5 CO 33.59 34.99 37.03 40.02 42.22 1.2 Particulate 8.12 9.21 10.13 9.13 8.72 0.4

Multi-gas emissions: Million ton

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM/Local Model Application:

Managing Emissions from Indian Electricity Sector

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

India

1 2 3 4 5 6 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Index (1975=1) Electricity Energy Carbon GDP 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Intensity Index (1975=1) Electricity Carbon Energy

GDP Intensity

Growth

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Emissions from Power Plants

25 50 75 100 125 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

Carbon (MT)

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

SO2 (MT)

Carbon SO2

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Power Plants: Data

Coal Plants Number Capacity (GW) State 1991 2002 1991 2002 AP 5 7 2.4 5.0 Assam 1 1 0.24 0.24 Bihar 5 7 2.4 4.2 Delhi 3 3 1.1 1.1 Gujarat 5 5 3.0 3.8 Haryana 2 2 0.8 0.8 Karnataka 1 1 0.4 1.1 Maharastra 7 8 4.3 6.5 MP 6 7 5.7 6.7 Orissa 1 3 0.5 1.9 Punjab 2 3 1.3 2.1 Rajasthan 1 2 0.6 1.1 TN 3 4 1.9 3.0 UP 9 10 6.6 8.7 WB 9 12 3.5 6.0

Ownership

2002

Coal plants: 75 Gas/ Oil plants: 13

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

SO2 Emissions

1991 2002

1991 2002

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

CO2 Emissions

1991 2002

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Future Emissions from Power Plants

SO2

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SO2 Emissions (MT) 4.0 4.5 5.0 Policy Freeze DAU

Carbon

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Carbon Emissions (MT) DAU Policy Freeze

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Future Emissions from Power Plants

Carbon SO2

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 SO2 Emissions (MT) Gas Price 4.0 4.5 5.0 Policy Freeze DAU 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Carbon Emissions (MT) Gas Price DAU

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

SO2 Emissions

2002

2030

National Capital Region KMDA Central Mines Chennai Metropolitan Area Golden Corridor

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Future Emissions (2030)

Carbon Emissions National Capital Region KMDA Chennai Metropolitan Area Golden Corridor Central Mines SO2 Emissions National Capital Region KMDA Central Mines Chennai Metropolitan Area Golden Corridor

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

AIM/Local Model Application:

Managing Electricity Sector Emissions from Gujarat State

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

All India: CO2 Emission Baselines

0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Coal Average Coal Marginal Fossil Average Fossil Marginal Industrial Average Gas Average Industrial Margina

kg (C)/ KWh

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

All India: SO2 Emission Baselines

3 4 5 6 7 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 g (SO2)/ KWh Coal Average Coal Marginal Fossil Average Fossil Marginal Industrial Average Industrial Margina

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

State Variation of Emission Baselines

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 Sulfur g (S)/KWh Gujarat (-43%) AP (+18%) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 Sulfur g (S)/KWh Gujarat (-43%) AP (+18%) 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Carbon Kg (C)/KWh AP (+23%) Gujarat (-25%) 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2001 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Carbon Kg (C)/KWh AP (+23%) Gujarat (-25%)

Carbon Sulfur

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Gujarat Emissions Study

Data: Unit Level data for 16 plants, 45 units

Fuel Plants Units MW Coal 5 23 3820 Gas/Naphtha 8 11 3159 Lignite 2 5 465 LSHS 1 6 534 Total 16 45 7978

2002

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Projections: Gujarat

100 200 300 1990 2000 2010 2020 SO2 '000 T 5 10 15 20 25 1990 2000 2010 2020 Carbon Mt (C) Coal Oil Lignite Gas

Carbon Sulfur

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

SO2 Emissions in 2000

2000 2020

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Conclusions from AIM Local Model Application

  • Rapidly rising emissions from the electricity sector
  • Rising Hot spots
  • Prominence of LPS
  • Variations in baselines across states
  • Disjoint in CO2 and SO2 emissions in future
  • Multiple dividends from conjoint policies for emissions mitigation
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Future Work

1. Multi-gas Emissions inventory assessment

  • Add F-Gases
  • Update regional inventory assessment
  • Link with technology, policy and institutional innovations

2. AIM model applications

  • AIM/Local Model Application for Urban Centers
  • Link AIM/Local application with AIM/Air Model analysis
  • CGE Model to represent special issues of developing countries (interface with CAPaBLE project)
  • Assessment of conjoint emissions mitigation policies
  • Short-term assessment for CDM potential
  • Analysis to gain insight for the beyond-Kyoto discussions
  • Modeling work with AIM team on Long-term scenarios in the contexts of AR4, EMF etc.

3. Capacity building and dissemination