Enrol ollmen ent, D Dem emog ograp aphics, cs, Supply an Su - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

#NMHCstudent @ApartmentWire

Enrol

• llmen

ent, D Dem emog

• grap

aphics, cs, Su Supply an y and Per erforman ance ce Tren ends

Taylor Gunn Director of Student Housing, Axiometrics a RealPage company

U.S. E Enrol

• llmen

ent Chang nge a e and G d Growth By y typ ype of

• f university

ty

Sources: Axiometrics, University Fact Books, CDS, IPEDS

• 800,000
• 600,000
• 400,000
• 200,000

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Public Four-Year Public Two-Year Private Not-for-Profit Private For-Profit

Tot

• tal Ch

Change i in High S Schoo

• ol G

Graduates b by State - 2018-202 023

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)

Axi Axio175 uni universities ar are pr project cted to s

• see ano

another f flat growth year ar be befor

• re pi

picki king up up later i r in n the he out

• utlook
• 1.0%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

• 40,000
• 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Change in Enrollment Enroll Growth

Projecting elevated growth in 2020 and 2021

Sources: Axiometrics, a RealPage company, University Factbook, CDS, IPEDs

What will d drive en enrol

• llment g

growth?

• 5.5%
• 3.5%
• 1.5%

0.5% 2.5% 4.5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Job Growth Enrollment Growth

• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 18-24 YO Population Growth Enrollment Growth

Sources: Axiometrics, a RealPage company, University Factbooks, IPEDS, BLS

New supply v vol

• lume r

remai ains s con

• nsi

sistent o

• ver

er t the past f few yea ears

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

New o

• ff

ff-campu pus s supp upply l lead aders th this is fall (2 ll (2018)

Uni Universi sity 2018 2018 Florida State University 2,707 Texas A&M University 2,487 University of Central Florida 1,495 University of Texas at Austin 1,483 East Carolina University 1,283 University of Texas at Arlington 1,282 Pennsylvania State University 1,261 University of Michigan 1,247 Indiana University 1,228 University of Mississippi 1,186 Colorado State University 1,165 University of Minnesota 1,157 University of Texas at Dallas 1,080 Syracuse University 1,079 Iowa State University 1,062 University of Tennessee 1,034 Coastal Carolina University 994 California State University - Chico 907 University of North Carolina - Charlotte 887 Arizona State University 775

Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Universities e s expect ecting t the e largest % cha hange in ne n new of

• ff-campu

pus be beds ds nex ext fall (2 ll (2019)

*Based on figures as of August 2018. These figures are preliminary and could change as more projects are identified. Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Uni Universi sity 2018 2018 2019 2019 % C % Change University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign 65 1,562 2303% Montana State University 130 887 582% Missouri State University 70 344 391% Purdue University 583 2,118 263% Texas State University 348 1,117 221% Clemson University 686 994 45% University of Florida 625 898 44% North Carolina State University 675 963 43% University of South Florida 542 755 39% Northern Arizona University 589 650 10% University of Texas at Austin 1,483 1,375

• 7%

Ohio State University 735 574

• 22%

Georgia Institute of Technology 765 525

• 31%

Florida State University 2,707 1,649

• 39%

University of Texas at Arlington 1,282 687

• 46%

University of Iowa 585 300

• 49%

East Carolina University 1,283 609

• 53%

University of Montana 500 208

• 58%

Colorado State University 1,165 429

• 63%

California State University - Sacramento 750 270

• 64%

University of Michigan 1,247 243

• 81%

Leasing v ng veloc

• city w

was trendi ending b ng below l last y year, b but ut cau aught up later i r in t the l leas easing s seas eason

• n

Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

4.2% 16.9% 28.6% 37.5% 49.7% 58.9% 68.8% 75.1% 81.6% 88.8% 94.1% 5.3% 19.3% 30.2% 37.2% 50.2% 58.9% 67.3% 74.4% 81.6% 88.9% 94.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Fall 2017 Fall 2018

Proximity t to campus us c continu nues es t to help d p drive e strong nger er p performanc nce

95.6% 92.9% 90.1% < 0.5 mi 0.5 mi to 1.0 mi > 1.0 mi

August Prelease

1.7% 1.4% 0.8% < 0.5 mi 0.5 mi to 1.0 mi > 1.0 mi

Annual Effective Rent Growth

Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company

Certain universities a are faci cing ch g challenges, b but many con

• ntinue t

to

• see stron
• ng p

perfor

• rmance
• 10%
• 8%
• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Effective Rent Growth August 2018 Prelease No 2018 Supply 2018 Supply

ERG > National Avg. Prelease < National Avg. ERG < National Avg. Prelease < National Avg. ERG < National Avg. Prelease > National Avg. ERG > National Avg. Prelease > National Avg. Source: Axiometrics, a RealPage company