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- How we get things done today becomes ‘locked in’
- Innovation is incremental, not transformative, framed
by familiar approaches and dominant actors
- Quantitative sense of time as a limited resource
Strategic fit eroding Changing conditions Diminishing returns
Business as Usual Eroding Organisational Performance
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What Happens Without Transformative Innovation – Case 1
STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE TIME
A series of ‘fixes’ that cannot endure over time; false sense of risk FIX Changing conditions Diminishing returns
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What Happens without Transformative Innovation – Case 2
STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE TIME
Accelerating performance Collapse A massive and growing exploitation based on false assumptions Tipping Point Devastation Changing conditions Destroyed returns
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The Three Horizons Version: Case 1 - Capture and Extension
Horizon 1 is challenged by changing conditions and there is strong innovation opportunity taking by Horizon 2. However, each wave of innovation is captured by Horizon1 and applied to extend its life. This may go on for several cycles. Horizon 3, in the background, remains in the background since it is so different from Horizon 1 that there is no place for it in a the
- mainstream. It continues to languish in the
margins until a much more fundamental and long term change occurs.
STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE TIME
H1 H2 H3
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The Three Horizons Version: Case 2 - Collapse and Slow Recovery
In this variant the supremacy of the Horizon 1 paradigm creates runaway success but at the expense of some critical condition. Failure to capture coupled with weaker innovation in Horizon 2 this leads to sudden collapse. Horizon 2 is unable to make up for this. In the background Horizon 3 continues to develop and after the initial upset and chaos of the collapse demonstrates its ability to match the new conditions and emerges as the next viable paradigm.
STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE TIME
H1 H2 H3
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The Three Horizons of Transformation: Challenge and Response
Horizon 1 is a current strategy that works well until changes in the environment plus its own diminishing returns put it on a curve of decline. Meanwhile Horizon 2 , aware of this in diverse ways is innovating more effective approaches which eventually overtake. In the background, a completely new paradigm is emerging as Horizon 3. It appears for a long time to be marginal and ineffective but since it matches better the new environment it eventually takes over. The Horizon 2 innovations have served as enabling to the transformation
STRATEGIC PERFORMANCE Defined as strategic fit or harmony with the changing environment. TIME
DESIGNING TRANSFORMATION H1 H2 H3
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Horizon 2 – The Phase of Clash and Transformation
- Looks both ways and bridges
- Zone of turbulence and innovation dilemmas,
- Sense of time as opportunity cost – need for
trade-offs Transformative Enterprise
Transition zone
?
H1 H2 H3
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Horizon Three as Active Visionary Future BY DESIGN!
- Transformative shifts from the present,
questioning assumptions, new actors
- Emerging patterns of value, many alternatives
- Qualitative sense of time as defining moment
Creating pockets of the future in the present
Visionary perspective
H1 H2 H3
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Attitudinal Blockages to Transformational Dialogue
H 3 H 2 H1 H3
H1 H3 irrelevant Horizon 1 mindset Horizon 2 mindset Horizon 3 mindset
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H1 H2 H3
Dinosauric Irrelevant Horizon Negative Mindsets – Vicious Cycles
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H1 H2 H3
Heritage Hope Horizon Positive Perspectives – Virtuous Cycles
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The Transformation Challenge as a Global Story
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increasing ¡ unsustainability ¡
mul2-‑planet ¡ way ¡of ¡life ¡
Fragmented ¡ innova2on ¡to ¡try ¡ and ¡keep ¡things ¡ going ¡
The ¡new ¡paradigm ¡retains ¡ ¡ ¡ useful ¡elements ¡of ¡the ¡ previous ¡era ¡ ¡ The ¡planetary ¡ system ¡sorts ¡out ¡ the ¡reali2es ¡from ¡ the ¡poli2cs ¡ ¡ Single ¡planet ¡ living ¡paradigm ¡ ¡ becomes ¡the ¡ norm ¡ TIME ¡ Need ¡for ¡Transforma2ve ¡Resilience ¡
HORIZON ¡1 ¡ HORIZON ¡2 ¡
STRATEGIC ¡ ¡ PERFORMANCE ¡ PRESENT ¡DECADE ¡ Unavoidable ¡ radically ¡ different ¡
environment ¡ ¡
HORIZON ¡3 ¡
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Research Background
Anthony Hodgson, Decision Integrity Limited, tony@decisionintegrity.co.uk www.decisionintegrity.com
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International Futures Forum
IFF Books for Digging Deeper
Some rights reserved: www.internationalfuturesforum.com/publishing-statement
PRACTICE RESOURCES
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http://www.iffpraxis.com/three-horizons
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International Futures Forum
The Resource Centre
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