ESSENTIAL FACILITIES PERFORMANCE STUDY FOR SEISMIC SCENARIOS IN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ESSENTIAL FACILITIES PERFORMANCE STUDY FOR SEISMIC SCENARIOS IN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ESSENTIAL FACILITIES PERFORMANCE STUDY FOR SEISMIC SCENARIOS IN MANHATTAN by MICHAEL W. TANTALA GEORGE DEODATIS Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering PRINCETON UNIVERSITY Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton


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SLIDE 1

ESSENTIAL FACILITIES PERFORMANCE STUDY FOR SEISMIC SCENARIOS IN MANHATTAN

by MICHAEL W. TANTALA GEORGE DEODATIS Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering PRINCETON UNIVERSITY

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SLIDE 2
  • This research seeks to provide a forecast of the types of losses that the

New York area could suffer after an earthquake

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 3

The Jan 17, 2001 M=2.4 The Jan 17, 2001 M=2.4 miniquake miniquake: a reminder to be prepared : a reminder to be prepared

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Courtesy of Dan O’Brien, NYSEMO

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SLIDE 4

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Courtesy of USGS

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SLIDE 5

Earthquakes of New England and Adjacent Regions (1638-1995)

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 6

INTRODUCTION

  • This research seeks to provide a forecast of the types of losses that the

New York area could suffer after an earthquake

  • Risk is typically defined by 3 components:
  • a hazard (the earthquake, hurricane, terrorist attacks)
  • the assests involved (our focus is the building stock), and
  • the fragility of those assests
  • There is a low probability of recurrence of earthquakes HOWEVER the

NYC area is high risk because of:

  • portfolio concentration, and
  • the fragility of that portfolio

– most structures are not seismically designed like those on the West Coast – the 1st seismic code was just passed in 1995

  • Scenarios were performed using the HAZUS (or Hazards US) modeling

GIS code

  • Essential/Critical Facilities Studied…this presentation focuses on this part

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 7

Risk Exposure: What does Manhattan have to risk?

Within the 27 square mile region, there are 298 census tracts:

  • 717,000 households
  • 1.5 million people
  • 37,000 buildings with 2.2 billion square feet
  • with a replacement value of $347 B (not contents) [2001 $]

Residential $175.0 B 57% Commercial $111.3 B 36% Industrial $5.3 B 2% Other $16.5 B 5%

Residential Commercial Industrial Other

Commercial $125.3 B 36% Industrial $6.0 B 2% Residential $197.1 B 57% Other $18.6 B 5%

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 8

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

HAZUS or HAZARDS US

Standardized Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology (future plans for other hazards)

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SLIDE 9

60 60 120 M iles

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4

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60 60 120 M iles

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New Jersey Connecticut New York

Manhattan = epicenter location

Deterministic Scenario Earthquakes (M5, M6 and M7 at an 1884 historic epicenter location)

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Probabilistic Scenarios were also considered (specified by recurrence intervals, i.e. a 2500 year event). These and other scenarios are discussed with detailed results in this conference paper.

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SLIDE 10

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 11

Soil Classes

modified

Hard Rock Rock Dense Soil/Soft Rock Soft Soils Special Soils

default

Only one soil type “D” Soil Classes Soil Map of Manhattan, Provided by Dr. Klaus Jacob, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Note: Softer soils will tend to amplify ground motion and increase the likelihood of damage

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SLIDE 12

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 13

35 109 1895 88 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number 6 72 2097 525 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URMConcrete

Building Type Number 3 333 1178 160 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number 1 640 2358 221 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Damage State Number 14 84 1627 344 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number 1 739 3665 348 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number 7 335 4044 151 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number 21 84 1592 184 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number 4 572 3129 168 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URMConcrete

Building Type Number 12 125 3258 336 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number

Financial District, Tribeca, Seaport, Battery Park City Soho, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Little Italy, Noho East Village, Lower East Side, Tompkins Square Upper East Side, Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, Lenox Hill Gramercy, Murray Hill, Turtle Bay, Tudor City East Harlem Central Harlem, Polo Grounds Washington Heights, Inwood Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, Manhattanville Lincoln Square, Upper West Side, Manhattan Valley Flatiron, Midtown Chelsea, Clinton

385 2684 210 1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete

Building Type Number

2 1334 1605 150

1000 2000 3000 4000

Wood Steel URM Concrete Damage State Number

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Collected detailed information on:

structure type use building area height quality of construction building type age etc …

This building damage will be used to predict casualties, shelter and rescue needs and fire and water demands, etc.

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SLIDE 14

Pre-1945 Lower Manhattan Buildings are shaded Red Distribution of Year of Construction

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1882 1890 1898 1906 1914 1922 1930 1938 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 Year of Construction Number of Buildings

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 15

Manhattan is unique in that it has a significant number of buildings greater than 20 stories

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 16

Average number of stories of buildings

Under 2 Above 30 10 20 Average Number of stories per square quarter-mile

# Average Number of Stories Neighborhoods 1 10.1 Financial District, Tribeca, Battery Park City, Seaport 2 5.2 Soho, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Little Italy, Noho 3 5.9 East Village, Lower East Side, Tompkins Square 4 5.8 Chelsea, Clinton 5 11.2 Flatiron, Midtown 6 8.7 Gramercy, Murray Hill, Turtle Bay, Tudor City 7 7.0 Lincoln Square, Upper West Side, Manhattan Valley 8 7.1 Upper East Side, Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, lenox Hill 9 5.6 Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, Manhattanville 10 4.6 Central Harlem, Polo Grounds 11 5.2 East Harlem 12 4.5 Washington Heights, Inwood All 6.7

District Key

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 17

Average population

District Key Above 15,000 Under 1,000 8,000 4,000 Average Number of People per square quarter-mile

# Population (Thousands) % of Total Neighborhoods 1 31 2.1% Financial District, Tribeca, Battery Park City, Seaport 2 94 6.3% Soho, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Little Italy, Noho 3 156 10.5% East Village, Lower East Side, Tompkins Square 4 89 6.0% Chelsea, Clinton 5 37 2.5% Flatiron, Midtown 6 140 9.4% Gramercy, Murray Hill, Turtle Bay, Tudor City 7 208 14.0% Lincoln Square, Upper West Side, Manhattan Valley 8 211 14.2% Upper East Side, Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, lenox Hill 9 107 7.2% Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, Manhattanville 10 99 6.6% Central Harlem, Polo Grounds 11 111 7.4% East Harlem 12 206 13.8% Washington Heights, Inwood All 1,487 100% Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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Square footage distribution

District Key Under 4,000 Above 45,000 16,000 32,000 Distribution of Square footage per square quarter-mile

# Total Square Footage (thousands) Percentage of Total Neighborhoods 1 219,047 9.9% Financial District, Tribeca, Battery Park City, Seaport 2 128,511 5.8% Soho, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Little Italy, Noho 3 104,646 4.7% East Village, Lower East Side, Tompkins Square 4 172,803 7.8% Chelsea, Clinton 5 414,024 18.7% Flatiron, Midtown 6 286,292 12.9% Gramercy, Murray Hill, Turtle Bay, Tudor City 7 189,741 8.5% Lincoln Square, Upper West Side, Manhattan Valley 8 354,126 16.0% Upper East Side, Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, lenox Hill 9 64,407 2.9% Morningside Heights, Hamilton Heights, Manhattanville 10 63,365 2.9% Central Harlem, Polo Grounds 11 113,794 5.1% East Harlem 12 108,748 4.9% Washington Heights, Inwood All 2,219,504 100%

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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Essential Facilities

Manhattan facilities were identified: police stations fire stations hospitals schools medical care facilities Detailed information was compiled on:

  • height
  • occupancy & facility type
  • building type
  • material
  • age
  • specific location
  • etc …

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

police stations fire stations hospitals schools Key

Facility Number Fire Station 54 Police Station 36 Hospital 20 School 626 Total 736

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60 60 120 M iles

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4

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60 60 120 M iles

  • 7

4

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4

  • 7

3

  • 7

3

  • 7

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  • 7

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New Jersey Connecticut New York

Manhattan = epicenter location

Deterministic Scenario Earthquakes (M5, M6 and M7 at an 1884 historic epicenter location)

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Probabilistic Scenarios were also considered (specified by recurrence intervals, i.e. a 2500 year event). These and other scenarios are discussed with detailed results in this conference paper.

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SLIDE 21

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 22

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M Deterministic (Fixed Location) PGA, Peak Ground Acceleration

Above 0.70 PGA, % g acceleration District Key

District # Average PGA 1 0.2021 2 0.1828 3 0.1901 4 0.1378 5 0.1273 6 0.1401 7 0.1007 8 0.1041 9 0.0885 10 0.1055 11 0.1197 12 0.0760 All 0.1312 District # Average PGA 1 0.3784 2 0.3494 3 0.3601 4 0.2927 5 0.2858 6 0.3023 7 0.2342 8 0.2438 9 0.2039 10 0.2335 11 0.2540 12 0.1769 All 0.2763 District # Average PGA 1 0.6753 2 0.6079 3 0.6297 4 0.5418 5 0.5397 6 0.5572 7 0.4613 8 0.4891 9 0.4011 10 0.4174 11 0.4416 12 0.3535 All 0.5096

0.20 0.40 Above 0.60 0.05

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 23

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 24

Central Harlem, Polo Gardens

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Damage Categories:

None Slight Moderate Extensive Complete

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SLIDE 25

30,000

# 2001$ (Thousands) % 1 126,100 17% 2 87,271 12% 3 68,018 9% 4 77,292 10% 5 138,507 19% 6 100,900 14% 7 23,336 3% 8 56,182 8% 9 7,719 1% 10 14,319 2% 11 32,200 4% 12 9,078 1% All 741,485 100% # 2001$ (Thousands) % 1 1,788,845 18% 2 1,007,499 10% 3 749,408 8% 4 1,020,821 10% 5 1,896,613 19% 6 1,305,355 13% 7 427,608 4% 8 732,339 7% 9 125,148 1% 10 213,304 2% 11 466,507 5% 12 160,700 2% All 9,907,983 100% # 2001$ (Thousands) % 1 7,099,119 16% 2 3,115,885 7% 3 2,323,419 5% 4 3,924,535 9% 5 9,661,923 22% 6 6,277,506 15% 7 2,274,407 5% 8 4,037,941 9% 9 667,250 2% 10 904,743 2% 11 1,829,316 4% 12 937,338 2% All 43,141,264 100%

Above 400,000 120,000 240,000

Total Loss

2001$ (Thousands) by census tract District Key

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Structural

+

Contents

+

Loss of Use

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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District Key

Casualties (Instant Death) – 2pm earthquake

2pm % 1 89 33% 2 14 5% 3 18 6% 4 10 4% 5 71 26% 6 33 12% 7 6 2% 8 6 2% 9 3 1% 10 6 2% 11 10 4% 12 6 2% All 271 100% CAS 4 Instant Death District #

2 At least 24 8 16 # of People per census tract

CAS 4 Instant Death 2pm 1

  • 2
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  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
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  • 9
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  • All
  • District

# 2pm % 1 9 46% 2 2 10% 3 2 10% 4 1 5% 5 3 16% 6 2 8% 7 1% 8 1% 9 < 1% 10 1% 11 2% 12 1% All 21 100% District # CAS 4 Instant Death

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 28

Essential Facilities

Manhattan facilities were identified: police stations fire stations hospitals schools medical care facilities Detailed information was compiled on:

  • height
  • occupancy & facility type
  • building type
  • material
  • age
  • specific location
  • etc …

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

police stations fire stations hospitals schools Key

Facility Number Fire Station 54 Police Station 36 Hospital 20 School 626 Total 736

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SLIDE 29

people in need of hospitalization District Key

Essential Facilities – Medical (Hospitals) and those requiring hospitalization

distance to nearest major medical facility (meters) 300 Above 4,000 1,200 2,400 medical facility functionality at day 0 (%)

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-100

each dot is 5 five people

2pm % 1 983 33% 2 157 5% 3 193 6% 4 114 4% 5 776 26% 6 358 12% 7 64 2% 8 63 2% 9 35 1% 10 67 2% 11 106 4% 12 61 2% All 2978 100% Need Hospital District # Need Hospital 2pm 1

  • 2
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  • All
  • District

# 2pm % 1 102 46% 2 22 10% 3 22 10% 4 11 5% 5 36 16% 6 18 8% 7 3 1% 8 2 1% 9 1 < 1% 10 1 1% 11 5 2% 12 2 1% All 223 100% District # Need Hospital

Average Functionality

96%

Average Functionality

63%

Average Functionality

26%

beds available

9,387

beds available

6,130

beds available

2,627

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 30

people in need of hospitalization

Essential Facilities Medical (Hospitals) and those requiring hospitalization

distance to nearest major medical facility (meters) 300 Above 4,000 1,200 2,400 medical facility functionality at day 0 (%)

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-100

each dot is

  • ne

person

2pm % 1 983 33% 2 157 5% 3 193 6% 4 114 4% 5 776 26% 6 358 12% 7 64 2% 8 63 2% 9 35 1% 10 67 2% 11 106 4% 12 61 2% All 2978 100% Need Hospital District #

Average Functionality

26%

beds available

2,627

District Key

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 31

District Key

Essential Facilities – School Functionalities and PGA

0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 Contoured PGA, % g 0-10 School Functionality at Day 0 (%) 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-100

Average Functionality

78%

Average Functionality

22%

Average Functionality

5%

Shelter Provided: 244,140 Needed: 0 Shelter Provided: 68,860 Needed: 15,725 Shelter Provided: 15,650 Needed: 114,985

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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District Key

Essential Facilities – Police Stations and those in need of rescue (immediate medical attention)

people in need

  • f rescue

distance to nearest major police station (meters) 300 Above 4,000 1,200 2,400 police station functionality at day 0 (%)

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-100

each dot is 2 five people

2pm % 1 89 33% 2 14 5% 3 18 6% 4 10 4% 5 71 26% 6 33 12% 7 6 2% 8 6 2% 9 3 1% 10 6 2% 11 10 4% 12 6 2% All 271 100% CAS 3 Need Rescue District # CAS 3 Need Rescu 2pm 1

  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
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  • 11
  • 12
  • All
  • District

# 2pm % 1 9 46% 2 2 10% 3 2 10% 4 1 5% 5 3 16% 6 2 8% 7 1% 8 1% 9 < 1% 10 1% 11 2% 12 1% All 20 100% District # CAS 3 Need Rescue

Average Functionality

56%

Average Functionality

19%

Average Functionality

4%

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 33

Essential Facilities Police Stations and those in need of rescue

people in need

  • f rescue

distance to nearest major police station (meters) 300 Above 4,000 1,200 2,400 police station functionality at day 0 (%)

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-100

each dot is

  • ne

person

2pm % 1 89 33% 2 14 5% 3 18 6% 4 10 4% 5 71 26% 6 33 12% 7 6 2% 8 6 2% 9 3 1% 10 6 2% 11 10 4% 12 6 2% All 271 100% CAS 3 Need Rescue District #

Average Functionality

4%

District Key

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 34

Average Functionality

14%

Ignited Fire Water Demands to Fight Fires (gallons per minute, GPM) under 1,000 Above 12,000 4,000 8,000 Fire stations each star is 1 fire ignited

Average Functionality

50%

Average Functionality

7%

Essential Facilities – Fire Stations and Ignitions

10 ignitions 111 ignitions 169 ignitions

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 35

A 5.0 2,475 10 216 362 50% 10,218 108,000 9% B 6.0 19,500 111 632 24,620 14% 153,764 30,240 508% C 7.0 160,000 169 15,200 68,638 7% 213,518 15,120 1412% D 5.0 2,475 10 216 362 50% 10,218 108,000 9% E 6.0 same

  • - -

49%

  • 105,840

0% F 7.0 same 14 16 108 47% 9,992 101,520 10% G N/A 100

  • - -

98%

  • 211,680

0% H N/A 500

  • - -

16%

  • 34,560

0% I N/A 2,500 117 6,300 19,045 7% 145,656 15,120 963% Probabilistic Probabilistic Deterministic Fixed Location Variable Location $ Exposed (Millions) # Ignitions Average Fire Stations % Functionality Scenario Type Magnitude Average Return Period (Years) Likely GPM Supply % capacity GPM Demand People Exposed

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Essential Facilities – Fire Stations and Ignitions

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SLIDE 36

District Key 0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 Contoured PGA, % g Debris: Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete each dot represents 10,000 tons

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes Debris Generated

88 k tons 5,700 k tons 27,178 k tons

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 37

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

A 5.0 2,475 362 10,218 136 B 6.0 19,500 24,620 153,764 9,256 C 7.0 160,000 68,638 213,518 25,804 D 5.0 2,475 362 10,218 136 E 6.0 same

  • -
  • F

7.0 same 108 9,992 41 G N/A 100

  • -
  • H

N/A 500

  • -
  • I

N/A 2,500 19,045 145,656 7,160 Relative to Manhattan Truck Loads of Garbage in One Day (times greater) Probabilistic Probabilistic Deterministic Fixed Location Variable Location Scenario Type Magnitude Average Return Period (Years) Truck Loads Required Debris Generated (thousand tons)

Debris Generated

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SLIDE 38

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Work in Progress—5 Borough Study and Larger Regional Estimates

New York City Characteristics 8 million people 750,000 buildings 5 billion square feet in buildings

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SLIDE 39

Ocean Burlington Morris Sussex Atlantic Salem Warren Monmouth Hunterdon Cumberland Bergen Somerset Mercer Middlesex Gloucester Camden Passaic Essex Cape May Union Hudson Mahwah Westwood Paramus Oakland Alpine Wyckoff Saddle River Teaneck Ramsey Franklin Lakes Tenafly Lodi Fair Lawn Ridgewood Lyndhurst Carlstadt Closter Englewood Montvale Hackensack Oradell Hillsdale Allendale Fort Lee Norwood East Rutherford Garfield Emerson Haworth Ridgefield Park Ridge Glen Rock Bergenfield Dumont Cresskill Northvale Leonia Rutherford Waldwick Demarest New Milford Saddle Brook Elmwood Park North Arlington Ho Ho Kus Little Ferry River Edge Moonachie Maywood Englewood Cliffs Midland Park Teterboro Bogota Fairview Wallington Wood Ridge Palisades Park Edgewater North Bergen Newark Livingston Fairfield Caldwell West Orange Short Hills Montclair Nutley Bloomfield Verona Belleville Roseland Irvington Cedar Grove Maplewood Millburn East Orange Orange South Orange Essex Fells Little Falls

Essex Bergen

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Work in Progress—NJ State (Bergen and Essex Counties and others)

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SLIDE 40

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

Work in Progress—Patras, Greece

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SLIDE 41

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

  • Funded by:

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency MCEER Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering

NYSEMO New York State Emergency Management Office NJSPEMO New Jersey State Police Emergency Management Office

  • In conjunction with:

NYCEM New York City-area Consortium for Earthquake Loss Mitigation LDEO Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University CUNY City University of New York NYSEMO New York State Emergency Management Office

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002

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SLIDE 42

QUESTIONS mtantala@princeton.edu

Michael W. Tantala and George Deodatis, Princeton University Urban Hazards Forum, NY “Essential Facilities Performance Study for Seismic Scenarios in Manhattan” Wednesday, January 23, 2002