Ethnic group migration patterns: a UK time series analysis Nik - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ethnic group migration patterns: a UK time series analysis

Nik Lomax n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk @NikLomax

British Society for Population Studies 2015 Conference 7-9 September 2015, University of Leeds

School of Geography

FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

Outline

• 1. Ethnic group population projections –

ETHPOP

• 2. Internal migration component methodology
• 3. Interaction patterns

2001 2011

2011

Rather than “Diversity Explosion” as seen in the USA (Frey 2015), are we seeing “Diversity Diffusion”?

Note: Index of Diversity = 1 - ere

2 where re =

proportion of the population in ethnic group e By 2051… wait for Phil Rees’ Presentation later in this session

Levels of migration

(Migrants aged over 1)

2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3

There is a negative correlation between immigration and net out-migration of the 404 Local Authority Districts for each year of the time series: r = -0.67 in 2001/02, r = -0.74 in 2006/07 and r = -0.66 in 2010/11, all p<0.01.

Levels of migration

(Migrants aged over 1)

2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3

There is a negative correlation between immigration and net out-migration of the 404 Local Authority Districts for each year of the time series: r = -0.67 in 2001/02, r = -0.74 in 2006/07 and r = -0.66 in 2010/11, all p<0.01.

9.6% non-white 17.8% non-white

White British Black Caribbean Indian Mixed MEi =

Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP

• Our overall aim is to understand and to

forecast the ethnic transition of the United Kingdom’s population

• This is important for monitoring ethnic

advantage / disadvantage & segregation

• The team are Phil Rees (PI), Paul Norman, Pia

Wohland, Nik Lomax & Stephen Clark

Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP

• The migration component requires input

time-series data of migration of ethnic group populations

• Moving to a multi-regional model over a bi-

regional model

• Experimenting with probabilistic estimates

which require good time-series estimates

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

White Multiple ethnic group Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian Black Other Ethnic Group

Migration per 1,000 people Source: 2011 Census table UKMIG003

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

Migration per 1,000 people Estimated from 2011 Census tables UKMIG003, MU01AUK_LA_All and MMo1_BUK_All

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 A0 A3 A6 A9 A12 A15 A18 A21 A24 A27 A30 A33 A36 A39 A42 A45 A48 A51 A54 A57 A60 A63 A66 A69 A72 A75+ Age BAN BLA BLC CHI IND MIX OAS OBL OTH PAK WBI WHO

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

Adapted from Rees and Willekens 1986

Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity

Combining data and estimating gaps

• Iterative Proportional Fitting

Metro and non-metro flows

23 38 37 43 52 43 37 43 52 49 54 44 26 24 25 25 21 26 22 22 24 26 18 21 24 23 24 23 20 23 28 23 18 18 22 24 26 15 13 10 7 8 13 11 7 7 7 11 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 WBI WHO MIX IND PAK BAN CHI OAS BLA BLC BLO OTH % of all migration Ethnic group Metro-Metro Metro - Non-Metro Non-Metro - Metro Non-Metro - Non-Metro

Chinese and Pakistani migration at age 16 to 24

Chinese 16-24 Pakistani 16-24

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Pakistani Chinese

Moves within metro areas

3 6 8 8 9 9 10 8 11 9 13 11 10 19 15 18 20 16 12 19 23 24 19 15 9 12 13 13 18 15 13 15 15 15 20 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 WBI WHO MIX IND PAK BAN CHI OAS BLA BLC BLO OTH % of all migration Ethnic group Core to Core Core to Rest Rest to Core Rest to Rest

Urban – Rural Patterns

Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense

WBI WHO CHI BLA BLC PAK

Ethnic Concentration

Chinese Pakistani Indian

High to Low High to High Low to Low Low to High High to Low High to High Low to Low Low to High High to Low High to High Low to Low Low to High

Conclusions

• Ethnic diversity in the UK has increased between

2001 and 2011 and is projected to increase further

• Internal migration patterns by ethnic group an

important component of population change

– Age structure and migration rates vary by group

• Need to get this right for our projection models
• Further estimation required for the full Origin-

Destination-Age-Sex-Ethnicity array

• Full ODAS array allows us to experiment with

multi-regional projection model

Ethnic group migration patterns: a UK time series analysis

Nik Lomax n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk @NikLomax

School of Geography

FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT

www.ethpop.org

References

• Frey, B (2015) Diversity explosion: How new racial demographics are

remaking America. Washington: The Brookings Institution

• Lomax, N., Norman, P., Rees, P. and Stillwell, J. (2013) Subnational

migration in the United Kingdom: producing a consistent time series using a combination of available data and estimates. Journal of Population Research 30(3): 265-288. DOI 10.1007/s12546-013- 9115-z.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12546-013- 9115-z

• Rees, P. and Willekens, F. (1986) Data and accounts. In Rogers, A.

and Willekens, F., eds. Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study. Dordrecht: Reidel, pp.19-58.