EU Transport Business Summit March 2014 Transport 2025: Plenty of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Connected World: Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains EU Transport Business Summit March 2014

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Transport 2025: Plenty of Transformation

Subscription, Sharing & Services Vehicle Automation & Innovation Cloud Driven Decisions Demand Growth & Attitude Change New Protectionism Velocity & Capability Needs

We could make a long list…

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Determining likely multistakeholder challenges and opportunities

• 1. Megatrends less understood regarding implications on the travel and transport ecosystem, exemplary blind spots from Task Force survey 2. Information and communication technology

— Multi-stakeholder platform with over 50 leading companies across travel, transportation, and ICT2 industries — Identify future challenges and opportunities of future mobility ecosystem — Pinpoint concrete scenario implications for each stakeholder group — Create insights on future blind spots and new business models — Influence policy makers by pragmatic recommendations and dialogue Impact Infrastructure Regulations IT Telco Transport Ecosystem

Phase II: 2025 scenarios Phase III: Representative solutions

Hotspots (e.g., energy, environment, megacities) Blind spots1 (e.g., cloud solutions/ big data, aging)

Phase I: Megatrends

Local is King Mind the Gap Maximized Growth New Balance IPITA— integrated proactive intermodal travel assistant TATLO— tracking- and transparency- based logistics

• ptimization

COMET— condition based megacity traffic management ACIS— fully automated check-in, security, border control/ smart visa

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Rio de Janeiro

Initial traffic management systems established, but substantial room for improvement to reach COMET value proposition—examples

Real-time monitoring Real-time analytics Intelligent steering Dynamic tolling Smart parking Access restriction System focusing on traffic steering to reduce congestion; no smart parking component System with advanced analytics capabilities to steer traffic, but no tolling and parking capabilities Comparably strong analytics, but largely human- powered; no dynamic tolling or smart parking

Source: ITS; roadtraffic-technology.com; IBM; Rio de Janeiro; NY Times; Singapore Ministry of Transport; U.S. Department of Transport; World Economic Forum/BCG analysis

Degree of fulfillment of COMET characteristics

Dynamic tolling system to smoothen traffic flows, but no advanced analytics capabilities

Hong Kong Zhenjiang Singapore

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COMET roadmap consists of four phases, expanding scope and functionalities over time

Launch toll road nucleus Expand to active steering Complete service portfolio 1 3 2

Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis

Today 2025

Fully enable COMET Functionality scope

Transparency for users Active traffic steering (incl. recommendations and access restrictions) Active traffic steering Traffic steering and unified payment provision

4 Asset scope

Key toll roads

• perated by REIT

Signage installed, public transport included Parking included Toll roads, signage,

• pub. transport,

parking

Data collection infrastructure

Floating car data Floating car data Add'l sensors where needed (e.g., parking) Floating car data and sensors where needed

Responsibilities of REIT/public authorities

Public authorit. (PA) run most

• perational issues;

REIT only toll roads REIT investment in sign., PA provide

• pub. transport data &

direct act. steering REIT investment in sensors and parking, approval by PA Full engagement

• f REIT, PAs in

supervisory role (and control public transport) Example roadmap – alternatives possible

Benefits for...

Transparency over traffic situation Active recommendations, incl. link to public transport Smart parking features (availability, reservation, etc.) Simple payments through

• ne unified system

Users

Opportunity to profitably run toll roads Opportunity to op. add'l roads and signage infrastructure Opportunity to monetize smart parking (e.g. dynamic pricing) Add'l revenue and efficiency through unified payments

Companies

Efficiently operated toll roads, less operational responsibility Lower congestion due to active steering and ability to leverage traffic data Added transparency over parking usage and better utilization of parking spaces Full transparency over transport system, no more

• perational burden

City

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Functional breadth

• f service coverage

(indicative) Real-time information Natural user interface Planning Travelling Booking At destination

Today's solutions not covering all required IPITA functions

Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis Note: Selected companies only; some companies/services with limited geographical scope No/low coverage Some coverage Focus

Booking covered by GDS, e.g. Amadeus, Sabre

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ACIS roadmap consists of four phases, phases can be completed with differing speeds by category

National visa, traditional systems Supra-country visa, risk-based screening Multi-country visa, advanced risk- based screening

1 3 2

Notes: PAIP = Pre-approved immigration program; Airport security roadmap is compatible with IATA "Checkpoint of the Future" except for compressed timeline Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis

Today 2020

Regional visa, seamless security process

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Example roadmap – alternatives possible

Scanner and security infrastructure

Traditional scanners, explosive detection dogs Traditional scanners but separate lanes or processes per risk- level Screen liquids and tablets w/o divesting, separate processes per risk- level Stand-off screening, no need to divest electronics, separate processes per risk- level

Risk database use

Basic PNR data analysis using rule- based systems Security screening depending on risk score, inclusion of add'l data sources Automatic behavior detection, automatic delivery

• f risk score to

checkpoint Full behavior analysis across entire airport, e.g. via CCTV SMART Airport

International cooperation1

No recognition

• f other

countries' visa Recognition of select supra- country visa (unilateral) Full recognition of

• ther countries'

visa (bilateral) One common digital visa with unified criteria/ processes for entire region

Technological/ procedural implementation

Isolated nat'l visa systems, no biometric data used, state-driven

• app. process; no

PAIP Isolated nat'l visa systems, some biometric info used, private app. process; PAIP on selected airports Int'l visa DB w/ supra-nat'l gov't body, some biometric info used, private app. process; PAIP on selected airports Int'l visa DB w/ supra-nat'l gov't body, full biometric info used, private

• app. process; PAIP
• n all airports

SMART Visa

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Digitization of supply chain facilitates trade—clear benefits for society

5 10 15 Total 12.0 Carrier 1.4 Forwarder 1.2 Shipper 9.4

Total annual benefits (US$ bn)

Volume increase Decreased delivery times (e.g. inventory savings) Reduced document processing costs

Source: Ferrantino, Geiger and Tsigas: The Benefits of Trade Facilitation- A Modeling Exercise, based on 2007 base line; Ambitious Scenario; IATA; World Economic Forum 2013, World Economic Forum/BCG analysis

Reducing trade barriers has substantive, positive influence on GDP Deep dive: Specific benefits of eFreight in air cargo

4-5% 6-8% ≥9% Exports 2-3% Imports GDP INCREASE TRADE INCREASE

Oceania Southeast Asia

South and Central Asia

Mexico Brazil

Rest of Americas

Europe, except FSU Russia and other FSU Non-oil Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa United States and Canada

Korea

China, Hong Kong, Taiwan

Japan

11% 7% 11% 26% 38% 39% 30% 74% 2% 6% 46% 34% 63% 55% 26% 10% 65% 49% 71% 33% 12% 18% 9% 9% 11% 3% 31% 34% 1% 2%

Other oil producers

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Freight forwarder/3PL1 Freight forwarder/3PL1

"Data integrators": Forwarders/3PLs could perform integration and translation tasks – gov't agencies accessible through single window

• 1. 3PL = Third-party logistics provider;

some carriers do not use 3PLs and

• ffer services directly to consignors/shippers

Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis

Brief description

— Freight forwarders/3PLs provide multiple interfaces so different consignors/consignees can connect to their systems; competitive advantage for forwarders/3PLs through — ability to provide additional services — cost reduction — Government authorities provide single-window interface — Consignor uploads info to freight forwarder/3PL and authorizes forwarder/3PL to use info in further process1 — Freight forwarder/3PL communicates with gov't authorities and carriers — Freight forwarder/3PL communicates with consignee — Both push and pull models

• f info exchange are

conceivable

Operation

Consignor/shipper National government authorities/ customs agencies Consignee/buyer Freight forwarders/3PLs1 Single Window Serve as data integrators and translators – "speak multiple standards" and link different consignors, consignees, carriers, and gov't agencies

Relationships shown: Authorized information flow Flow of goods Integrator role Cash flows

End Customer Carriers1 Single Window

Set-up

National government authorities/ customs agencies

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B2G exchange

TATLO roadmap consists of two parallel, yet interlinked B2B and B2G streams

Single Window Initial digitalization Ltd digital exchange Full nat'l digitalization

Digitalization

• f comm. w/

customs Limited Single Window National Single Window

1 3 2

Note: GA = Gov't authorities; OGA = Other gov't authorities; NSW = Nat'l single window; Roadmaps likely to differ strongly depending on individual local starting conditions Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis

Today 2025

Int'l e-logistics

Regional Single Window

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Example roadmap – alternatives possible

— Automated paperless trading environment — Use of ICT by relevant government agencies — Single interface: traders to all GAs — Cov. of all import/ export/transit-related regulatory requirem. — Exchange of trade information between NSWs — Enhancement of regional connectivity — Single interface between traders & selected authorities — No full OGA permits & licensing coverage — Some digital exchange between countries, e.g., for transit of goods B2B exchange

B2B digital information exchange

Exchange of limited set of simple e-documents between 3PLs and carriers E-document exchange also between consignor/ consignees, banks (e- payments), freight forwarders and logistics service providers Full international electronic data exchange,

• incl. end-customers

Full e-documents exchange between stakeholders within the (air, sea, dry) port community Different phase-ins possible, e.g. by mode of transportation, types of goods, regional block, industry

Easing Travel Enabling Trade Improving Lives