Euro Corporate Strategy
European Credit Team
February 2016
For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for retail clients *Schroder International Selection Fund is referred to as Schroder ISF
Euro Corporate Strategy European Credit Team February 2016 For - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Euro Corporate Strategy European Credit Team February 2016 For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for retail clients *Schroder International Selection Fund is referred to as Schroder ISF Schroders Organisational
February 2016
For professional investors only. This material is not suitable for retail clients *Schroder International Selection Fund is referred to as Schroder ISF
Source: Schroders, as at 30 September 2015 *As at 31 December 2015
Bermuda Cayman Islands Mexico City New York Philadelphia Amsterdam Copenhagen Frankfurt Geneva Gibraltar Guernsey Jersey London Luxembourg Madrid Milan Paris Rome Stockholm Zurich Beijing Hong Kong Jakarta Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Taipei Tokyo Buenos Aires São Paulo Chile Dubai (Investment offices in blue)
Independent
Established in 1804 Schroder family controls 48%* of voting equity
Stable
Strong balance sheet and stable ownership
structure
We can invest in our business through the market
cycle Focused
Asset management is our sole business We have no conflicts of interest
Able to support you
Global investment resources €400.0bn AUM across the major asset classes
Schroders’ offices
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€400.0bn total AUM* €102.9bn fixed income division AUM**
2 Source: Schroders. *Data represents AUM by product sold. **Data represents AUM by investment desk. ^Other includes Convertibles, Insurance Linked, and Alternative Rates
30 September 2015 30 September 2015
3 **Includes municipals, securitised, insurance-linked and convertibles. ***London-based resources only. ****London and Zurich-based resources only. Source: Schroders, as at 31 January 2016.
Financials Communications Utilities Industrials Quantitative Strategy
Robert Kendrick Sam Tomlinson Stephen Hunnisett Patrick McCullagh Charlotte Peat Dan Pearson Carter Holloran Bartek Pastwa Rhys Thomas Alex Stephansen Rajeev Shah Szevak Nszdejan Yow Tzu Lim
Sterling Credit Euro Credit High Yield Global Credit
Alix Stewart Patrick Vogel Konstantin Leidman Peter Harvey Michael Scott Lucette Yvernault Jonathan Golan, Martin Coucke Specialist Fixed Income Portfolio Management Teams (no. portfolio managers) Specialist Analyst Teams (no. analysts) Specialist Product Team (no. specialists) Credit Rates EMD Extended sectors ** European Credit North American Credit Asia, Australia & EMD Credit Quant, Strategy & Economy*** Portfolio- specific**** Multi-Sector Credit 15 24 8 10 11 14 12 14 6 5 5
4 Source: Schroders, as at 31 December 2015
Equities
Asia/Pan Pacific Emerging Markets European Global/International Japan Large, Mid and Small Cap Other sector/single country specialist QEP Single country UK US Value, Growth
EMD and Commodities
Emerging Market Debt – Absolute Return Global Currency Private Equity
Multi-Asset
GAIA (Global Alternative Investor Access Global Balanced Hedge Funds – FoF and single strategy Multi-Manager Regional Balanced Structured Products Tailored Benchmark
Fixed Income
Asian Corporate, High Yield Discretionary Money Management Duration specific Emerging Market Debt – Relative Return European Global Government, Aggregate Index Linked Insurance-Linked Securities Other specialist/single country UK US
Property – UK and Global
Schroders offices
Bermuda Cayman Islands Mexico City New York Philadelphia Amsterdam Copenhagen Frankfurt Geneva Gibraltar Guernsey Jersey London Luxembourg Madrid Milan Paris Rome Stockholm Zurich Beijing Hong Kong Jakarta Seoul Shanghai Singapore Sydney Taipei Tokyo Buenos Aires São Paulo Chile Dubai (Investment offices in blue)
Aim: Continue to be the superior information ratio provider in credit
Strong consistent track record through bull and bear markets Integrated global investment framework that maximises skills from the global fixed income group
and beyond (e.g. macro, EMD, quant, equity team etc.)
Credit research fully aligned to credit investment process Innovative themes-based research and investment approach
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ISF EURO Corporate ISF EURO Credit Conviction ISF EURO High Yield All Maturities Corporate Bond Long Dated Corporate Bond ISF EURO Credit Absolute Return ISF Strategic Credit Monthly High Income ISF Global Multi Credit Credit Value Type Benchmark Relative Benchmark Relative Benchmark Relative Benchmark Relative Benchmark Relative Absolute Return Absolute Return Total Return Total Return Total Return Objective BM +100bp p.a. gross
BM +200bp p.a. gross
BM +150bp p.a. gross
BM +75bp p.a. gross
BM+75bp p.a. gross
Euribor +3% p.a. gross T-Bills +3% p.a. gross
1st Quartile Peer Group Returns Ref BM +3-4% p.a. (L+5%) gross over a cycle 7-9% total return p.a.
cycle Benchmark BoAML Euro Corporate iBoxx Euro Corporate BBB BoA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained Index – HEC0 BoAML Sterling Non-Gilts All Stocks BoAML +15Yrs Sterling Non-Gilts All Stocks 3m Euribor 3m UK T-Bill Reference
BoAML European ccy HY Constrained (HPC0) Ref: Barclays Multiverse ex Treasury, A to B Unconstrain ed BM agnostic Lead Fund Manager Patrick Vogel Sep 2012 Patrick Vogel Sep 2012 Konstantin Leidman Nov 2012 Alix Stewart Aug 2012 Alix Stewart Aug 2012 Patrick Vogel Peter Harvey Apr 2006 Michael Scott Aug 2012 Patrick Vogel Konstantin Leidman Fund Size €6,384m €990m €240m £862m £292m €25m £1,227m £241m €100m* TBC Inception date Jun 2000 Dec 2013 Nov 2012 Feb 2001 Jan 2001 Nov 2015 Apr 2006 Feb 2000 TBL in 2016 TBL in 2016
Source: Schroders as at 31 December 2015. ISF Global Multi Credit to be launched in H1 2016 and Credit Value in H2 2016. * Segregated portfolio funded November 2015 to seed fund launch.
7 Source: Morningstar peer groups, data as at 31 January 2016. Schroder ISF Euro Corp Bd A Acc, Schroder ISF Euro Credit Convct A Acc. Grouped by: Morningstar Category - EAA OE EUR Corporate Bond. Schroder ISF Euro High Yield A Acc grouped by EAA OE EUR High Yield Bond. *Euro Corporate Bond : Patrick took over managing 01/09/2012. Euro Credit Conviction: Launched 18/12/13. Euro High Yield: Launched 14/11/12.
31 January 2016 1 year 2 years (p.a.) Since current management was in place* Fund Peer Group Ave. Difference Quartile Ranking Fund Peer Group Ave. Difference Quartile Ranking Fund Peer Group Ave. Difference Quartile Ranking Euro Corporate Bond
+1.24 1 3.98 2.45 +1.53 1 5.13 3.60 +1.53 1
Euro Credit Conviction
+1.17 1 4.41 2.45 +1.96 1 4.61 3.55 +1.06 1
Euro High Yield
1.47
+2.67 1 3.24 1.26 +1.98 1 5.87 4.10 +1.77 1
8 Source: Schroders GIPS composite data to 31 January 2016. Data from the current investment team. * Euro Credit Conviction composite Incepted 31 January 2014.
Composite 1yr Excess Return 2yr Excess Return p.a. 3yr Excess Return p.a. 3yr Information Ratio Benchmarked Strategies Euro Corporate Bond 1.25% 1.68% 2.00% 2.70 Euro Credit Conviction 2.06% 2.52%
Euro High Yield 3.70% 2.13% 1.49% 1.31 Composite 1yr Return 2yr Return p.a. 3yr Return p.a. 3yr Sharpe Ratio Unconstrained Total Return Strategies Monthly High Income 4.51% 5.76% 7.53% 1.68 Strategic Credit 2.09% 2.62% 3.44% 1.43
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Up markets Down markets
Schroders Euro Corporate Bond Composite
Integrated investment process
Broader team approach to investment management
Hands-on involvement with credit research Innovative and creative evolution of the investment process
Themes-based investment style
A formalised procedure that continually reviews the process to successfully deliver performance in varying investment environments A balanced portfolio construction
Aiming for consistent out-performance of the market by implementing different investment themes into the strategy
Portfolio construction focuses on building low correlated alpha sources while minimising risk
Include offsets in portfolio construction to ensure not all themes are pointing in same direction
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12 Source: Schroders
Multiple Credit Investment Themes
Diversified by theme Diversified by horizon
Security selection
37 credit analysts Fully aligned research process
Credit Strategy
Input Credit Scorecard
Output Cross market relative value Risk bias
Risk Management
Multiple, forward-looking themes diversified by style and time horizon Regular discussion and formulation of credit themes likely to drive markets Diversity of themes and horizons aid risk management Recognise real value by identifying second and third order effects of themes
13 Source: Bloomberg Z-spread, Renault 3.625% 19 September 2018 was traded on issue date 11 September 2013. Updated on 8 May 2014
Illustration:
Theme: Europe is going through a cyclical recovery, which will benefit European consumers Theme: The Yen has faced a sharp devaluation. This will benefit Nissan, of which Renault holds a 40% stake, as exports to the US accelerate, aided by improving consumer demand in the US Theme: Growing US energy self-sufficiency. The shale gas revolution is likely to switch America’s role into becoming a net energy
boost car sales Theme: Growing income gap. Renault has a very strong range at the budget end of the market – Romanian manufactured Dacia – appealing to consumers with a lower disposable income
Credit research is fully aligned with credit themes which promotes deeper
understanding of business models, and the reaction to credit themes. Forward looking analysis focuses on understanding the 1st, 2nd and 3rd order effects of themes on companies
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Company A Company D Company B Company E Company C
Asia Revenues Internet Trade Bank Deleveraging
Company F
Income Gap
Ties with multiple themes: High conviction
Monthly meetings to assess top-down views on credit and identify potential changes The output is the European credit scorecard of our views with scores of -3 to +3
– the input scorecard summarises our views for macroeconomics, corporate fundamentals, systemic risks and technicals – the output score summarises our top-down sector views and off benchmark markets
15 Source: Schroders, Monthly Credit Strategy Meeting, 5th August 2014
Illustration:
* - Current score (previous score)
Screening tool that covers 95% of global universe with over 60 statistical fields to identify
momentum or mean reversion
A two dimensional process over time horizons and across investment universes Ability to create both market neutral strategies and take advantage of market timing Extensive curve analysis to determine opportunity value across CDS tenor and bond maturities Decomposition into alpha and beta adjusted performance versus index and Schroders bespoke
‘Super Sectors’
16 Source: Schroders
Illustration:
Index Schroders Analyst Net 3Mnth Beta to Currrent (09-May) Z-Spread change (bp) 3 Mnth Hist 6 Mnth CDS Basis 3M Beta implied Alpha Isin Bond Market Sector Amt (mn) Pos (mn) Rating Cntry Rec. Lev Index Sector Price Yld TW MDur TW G-Sprd G-Sprd Cntry CDS basis Z-Sprd 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD Min Max Z-Score Z-Scor RSI 3M Z-Score Vs. Index
XS0763 ABBNVX 2 5/8 03/26/19 Capital Goods 1,250 A2/A/BBB+ CH 0.3x 0.44 0.60 106.81 1.41 5.44 89 128
49
42 63
42.7 0.0
FR0010 ALOFP 4 09/23/14 Capital Goods 743 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.47 0.64 104.50 0.69 1.33 68 65
37
37 66
21.1 0.9
FR0010 ALOFP 2 7/8 10/05/15 Capital Goods 500 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.52 0.72 104.76 0.87 2.31 83 70 21 46
46 78
29.3 0.6
FR0011 ALOFP 3 7/8 03/02/16 Capital Goods 500 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.59 0.82 107.96 0.99 2.68 93 76 25 53
52 86
22.5 0.6
FR0010 ALOFP 4 1/8 02/01/17 Capital Goods 750 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.73 1.01 110.25 1.29 3.47 111 85 38 72
71 103
27.7 0.5
FR0011 ALOFP 2 1/4 10/11/17 Capital Goods 350 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.76 1.04 103.36 1.46 4.15 117 86 54 78
78 110
31.2 0.2
FR0010 ALOFP 3 5/8 10/05/18 Capital Goods 500 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.80 1.10 110.13 1.65 4.86 120 86 72 82
82 114
27.9 0.2
FR0010 ALOFP 4 1/2 03/18/20 Capital Goods 750 Baa2/BBB/NR FR 3S 1.4x 0.99 1.36 115.36 2.07 5.96 139 98 75 101
101 139
30.1 0.4
XS0604 AMCAU 4 5/8 04/16/19 Capital Goods 550 Baa2/BBB/NR AU 4MD 2.6x 0.71 0.98 116.76 1.64 5.28 111
27 72
72 91
30.8 1.2 10 2 XS0907 AMCAU 2 3/4 03/22/23 Capital Goods 300 Baa2e/BBB/NR AU 4MD 2.6x 0.97 1.34 101.46 2.58 8.53 127
19 106
106 115 32.8
XS0302 ATCOA 4 3/4 06/05/14 Capital Goods 340 A2/A/NR SE 0.4x 0.09 0.13 104.63 0.41 1.02 39
3 10 1
3
5 15
48.1
1 XS0757 ATCOA 2 5/8 03/15/19 Capital Goods 500 A2/A/NR SE 0.4x 0.37 0.51 107.21 1.33 5.42 82 3 16 42
1
35 52
47.1 0.1 5 1 XS0896 ATCOA 2 1/2 02/28/23 Capital Goods 500 A2/A/NR SE 0.4x 0.50 0.70 103.62 2.09 8.62 78 38 14 57 1
4 51 65 42.3
XS0633 CAT 2 3/4 06/06/14 Capital Goods 600 A2/A/A US 2S 0.7x 0.14 0.20 102.45 0.46 1.04 44 35
15
2
10 23
48.7 0.0
XS0782 CAT 1 3/8 05/18/15 Capital Goods 600 A2/A/A US 2S 0.7x 0.21 0.28 101.53 0.61 1.97 59 38 1 24
2
15 29
53.1
1
FR0010 CEIFP 3 7/8 09/23/16 Capital Goods 1,250 3.00 NR/BBB-/NR FR 3S 1.10 1.52 107.28 1.64 3.11 151 128 112
111 149
25.6
FR0011 CEIFP 4 5/8 10/05/17 Capital Goods 900 2.00 NR/BBB-/NR FR 3S 1.20 1.65 111.38 1.91 3.94 162 131 124 1
123 159
20.0 1
FR0010 CEIFP 4 3/8 11/06/19 Capital Goods 750 2.00 NR/BBB-/NR FR 3S 1.25 1.73 112.42 2.29 5.60 167 129 129 1
128 168
19.4
FR0010 CEIFP 3 1/2 03/22/21 Capital Goods 750 2.00 NR/BBB-/NR FR 3S 1.40 1.93 106.13 2.63 6.83 173 129 140
140 187
14.8
FR0010 CEIFP 4 7/8 09/23/24 Capital Goods 1,000 NR/BBB-/NR FR 3S 1.54 2.13 115.08 3.26 8.66 180 125 163
163 201
19.9 8
XS0640 DE 3 1/4 06/22/16 Capital Goods 300 A2/A/NR US 3S 0.1x 0.28 0.39 107.53 0.80 2.92 70 41
30 1
24 41
41.7
2
XS0445 EADFP 4 5/8 08/12/16 Capital Goods 1,000 2.30 A2/A-/BBB+ NL 3S
0.35 0.49 111.94 0.89 2.99 78 63 11 38
33 48
38.1
3
XS0176 EADFP 5 1/2 09/25/18 Capital Goods 500 A2/A-/BBB+ NL 3S
0.48 0.67 121.36 1.35 4.67 91 66 29 53
51 62
43.6
12 7
Integrated credit team aligned with investment process is a major differentiator No sector silo approach to investment or research Understanding business models and the relationship between issuers Working together to understand the supply chain and revenue relationships across sectors Identify the under-researched bond issuers that lie outside the scope of standard research
processes
17 Source: Schroders, Analyst Handbook, 5th June 2014
Illustration:
Fundamental
European growth set to continue led by the ‘weaker’ states. Inflation expectations driven by global growth, oil and commodities
US & UK growth momentum moderating. China slowdown poses risk to global growth.
Europe is behind the US in the credit cycle
Improved Eurozone credit conditions
Volatility in yield providing better entry, volatility in spread giving more alpha opportunities Systemic risks
China risk to the fore, ISIS needs to be monitored
EM economic fundamentals challenged Technicals
Positioning has become more risk-averse
Flows into Euro IG space are negative so far in 2016
19
Source: Schroders , OECD, February 2016 20
21
Investment grade non-financial companies
Sources: Schroders, S&P Capital IQ, MS Research as at December 2015 Based on >€/$ 500m market cap universe ~970 European and ~ 1,600 North American non-financials companies
Earnings concerns
Higher for North American companies. % of North American companies with negative LTM EPS at a cycle high
22
IG non-financials BBB excluding energy, metals and mining (base currency) IG non-financials BBB excluding energy, metals and mining (base currency)
Source: Schroders, Barclays, Bloomberg, Data as of January 2016
Yield to Worst (%) Yield to Worst (%) Avg life
Cross Currency Adjusted
Avg life
23
Euro IG
Source: Schroders, January 2016
OAS
24
Mean Median
25 Source: Schroders, gross of all fees, based on end of day market prices for benchmark comparison * 2012 since current management were in place – 01/09/12
Date Fund Return Index Return Alpha (bps) FX (bps) Rates (bps) Sovereign (bps) Credit (bps) Residual (bps) 2012* 4.38% 3.55% 83 3 3 58 19 2013 5.11% 2.39% 272
29 226 39 2014 9.91% 8.25% 165
58 96 17 2015 1.76%
219
1 22 188 13 Jan-15 1.49% 0.87% 62 1 6 54 2 Feb-15 1.22% 0.64% 58 2 6 51
Mar-15 0.10%
16
17 6 Apr-15
13
12 2 May-15
3
Jun-15
6 1
3 Jul-15 1.60% 1.21% 38 1 1 36 1 Aug-15
2 1
Sep-15
7 2 3 1 1 Oct-15 1.74% 1.35% 39
1 42
Nov-15 0.76% 0.69% 7
3 7 1 Dec-15
5
1 5 1 Jan-16 0.11% 0.59%
4 2
Total 22.84% 14.96% 788
128 588 95
Source: Bloomberg, February 2016 26
Orange equity price vs corporate bond price Orange corporate bond price vs total debt / capital
Source: Aviva 2015 Interim Results August 2015, Bloomberg, February 2016 27
Aviva equity vs corporate bond price
Sector allocation
28 Source: Schroders, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Based on un-audited data as at 29 January 2016 *Fund issuer number treats each CDS index as a single issuer and excludes the non-credit line items (Futures Fixed Income, Margin Cash Balance, SYN, Synthetic Cash Fixed Income, Currency). **Memo: High yield bonds are also included in the other sector breakdown in the rest of the chart The chart will not add up to 100 as it does not include futures, IRS, forwards, TRS, cash synthetic or the CDS float (non-active leg of the CDS)
Fund Benchmark
Assets under management €6.5 billion €1.8 trillion Effective Yield 2.0% 1.3% OAS +212 +148 Effective Duration 4.9 4.9 Number of issuers* 224 553 Average Credit Weighting BBB+ A-
Market value (%)
Hedged Currency (%MV)
GBP 7.43 USD 5.97
Sector allocation breakdown for industrials in the fund
29 Source: Schroders, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Breakdown of Industrials in the fund by MLX level 3. Based on un-audited data as at 29 January 2016
Market value (%)
30 Source: Schroders/Bank of America Merrill Lynch/Fixed Income Analytics as at 29 January 2016, Based on un-audited data *Bank of America Merrill Lynch EMU Corporate Index (Bloomberg ticker: ER00 Index). Ratings by average of S&P, Moody’s and Fitch The chart will not add up to 100 as it does not include futures, IRS, forwards, TRS, cash synthetic or the CDS float (non-active leg of the CDS)
Market value (%)
31 Source: Schroders FIA at 29 January 2016, Based on un-audited data. The above is for information only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Overweights and underweights by market value (%) versus the benchmark (including single name CDS but excluding bunds and CDS indices)
Ticker Name Overweight (%) T AT&T Inc +2.04 YBS Yorkshire Building Society +1.95 BKIR Bank of Ireland +1.83 ANNGR Vonovia SE +1.76 FCACAP FCA Bank SpA +1.75 HTHROW Heathrow Funding +1.52 LLOYDS Lloyds Banking Group PLC +1.38 AVLN Aviva PLC +1.36 SSELN SSE PLC +1.15 FLYFP Fonciere Lyonnaise +1.10 Ticker Name Underweight (%) ACAFP Credit Agricole Groupe
RABOBK Rabobank
ENIIM ENI SpA
VW Volkswagen AG
BNP BNP Paribas SA
HSBC HSBC Holdings PLC
TELEFO Telefonica SA
GE General Electric Co
BFCM Credit Mutuel-CIC Group
BMW BMW
33 *This is not a complete set of fund rules and represents the typical internal, non mandatory limits under which the fund is managed Please note that such limits may be deviated from and are subject to change without notice
Fund Managers:
Patrick Vogel supported by the credit team
Peer Group:
Micropal Fixed Income EUR-corporate bond
Benchmark:
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EMU Corporate index (Bloomberg ticker = ER00 Index)
Aim:
To consistently outperform the market, leading to competitive peer group performance over the market cycle
Style:
A fully integrated global fixed income platform combining expertise across all fixed income sectors
Top down research identifying themes driving all fixed income sectors
Multiple themes applied though credit selection into diversified credit strategies
Emphasis on disciplined and rigorous credit research
Guidelines*:
Maximum 10% in cash; maximum 20% in cash and government bonds
Maximum of 20% in total in High Yield
Maximum 20% in non Euro denominated assets
Hedged 100% to Euro
Overall portfolio duration: Benchmark +/- 2 years
Derivatives used include: currency forwards, interest rate futures, interest rate swaps, and credit default swaps
2x limit on fund value-at-risk relative to benchmark value-at-risk (including all derivatives)
Max 50% in long risk or short risk CDS positions
This document does not constitute an offer to anyone, or a solicitation by anyone, to subscribe for shares of Schroder International Selection Fund (the “Company”). Nothing in this document should be construed as advice and is therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell shares Subscriptions for shares of the Company can only be made on the basis of its latest Key Investor Information Document and prospectus, together with the latest audited annual report (and subsequent unaudited semi-annual report, if published), copies of which can be obtained, free of charge, from Schroder Investment Management (Luxembourg) S.A. An investment in the Company entails risks, which are fully described in the prospectus Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount
Schroders has expressed its own views and opinions in this document and these may change This document is issued by Schroder Investment Management Ltd., 31, Gresham Street, EC2V 7QA, who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, all telephone calls are recorded Risk Considerations A security issuer may not be able to meet its obligations to make timely payments of interest and principal. This will affect the credit rating of those securities The currency derivative instruments employed are subject to the risk of default by the counterparty. The unrealised gain on the transaction as well as some of the desired market exposure may therefore be lost The Fund’s operations depend on third parties and it may suffer disruption or loss in the event of their failure The fund may use financial derivative instruments as part of the investment process. There is no guarantee that they will deliver the expected results
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