Evaluation of Budget Support in Zambia BMZ / IOB / Sida / MoFNP - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Evaluation of Budget Support in Zambia

BMZ / IOB / Sida / MoFNP AIID / DIE / KfW / OPM

Evaluation questions

• Level 1: BS inputs: money, dialogue and

technical assistance

• Level 2: BS outputs: increased funds,

dialogue framework, harmonised approach

• Level 3: induced outputs
• Level 4: outcome (descriptive)
• Level 5: impact measurement (analytical)

Case studies

• Political economy (step I)
• Macro economic impact
• Sector case studies:

 Agriculture  Infrastructure (roads, water)  Health  Education

• Poverty impact

4

Cooperating Partners

BS Funding Government Resources

Government

Government Policies & Systems

• Policy Content
• PFM
• Governance

Public Goods and Services Impact Sustainable Growth & Poverty Reduction Policy Dialogue Conditionality Technical Assistance (TA) & Capacity Building Strategies Ownership Commitment

Intervention Logic of Budget Support

Incentives Alignment to Government Policies and Systems Harmonisation among Donors transaction costs / receptiveness

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 USD Million Budget Support ODA DAC Donors (excl BS) ODA non DAC

Development of budget support in Zambia

Some findings

• Increased expenditure in social sectors
• Positive development of monetary and fiscal

policy

• Strengthening of PFM and the position of the

Auditor General, budget cycle

• Some improvements in service delivery
• Slow improvement of poverty indicators

Education (2005-2009)

• Expenditure : 480 mln – 760 mln
• Basic education: 288 mln – 400 mln
• Teachers: 50,000 – 61,000
• Classrooms: 33,000 – 41,000
• Pupils: 2.9 mln. – 3.4 mln.
• Completion rates: 82% – 92%
• Enrolment poorest quintile: 52% – 73%

–

Poverty impact

• Sound monetary and fiscal policies contributed

to economic growth

• Roads sector has not realised its potential
• Poverty rates go do slowly
• Rural poverty remains a huge challenge
• Effectiveness of agricultural subsidies is

questioned

• Impact of population growth
• Potential Dutch disease effects (lower than

assumed)

Challenges

• GRZ:

 Slow improvements in key areas  Limited ownership  Regressive allocations  “Vanishing benefits”

• Cooperating Partners:

 Unfinished harmonisation agenda  Overloaded policy dialogue and PAF  Unrealistic expectations

Evaluation challenges

• Difficult to get the most elementary data

(even BS disbursements)

• No joint knowledge management
• Poverty data are not very recent
• Attribution of budget support to

macroeconomic developments

• Congestion of evaluations