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F i r s t l o o k a t t h e i n f l u e n c e - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

F i r s t l o o k a t t h e i n f l u e n c e o f m o i s t u r e s c h e m e o n l o n g - t e r m C P C s i m u l a t i o n s w i t h R e g C M Mi c h a l B e l d a


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SLIDE 1

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

m

  • i

s t u r e s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

Mi c h a l B e l d a

D e p a r t m e n t

  • f

A t m

  • s

p h e r i c P h y s i c s , C h a r l e s U n i v e r s i t y , P r a g u e

I n c

  • p

e r a t i

  • n

w i t h E m a n u e l a P i c h e l l i ( I C T P ) , T e r e z a N

  • v

á k

  • v

á a n d T

  • m

á š H a l e n k a

N i n t h I C T P Wo r k s h

  • p
  • n

t h e T h e

  • r

y a n d U s e

  • f

R e g i

  • n

a l C l i m a t e Mo d e l s , 2 1 8

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SLIDE 2

C

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p e r m i t i n g c l i m a t e m

  • d

e l i n g

  • C

l i m a t e m

  • d

e l s r u n w i t h a h

  • r

i z

  • n

t a l r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

i n k i l

  • m

e t e r s c a l e

  • B

e t e r r e p r e s e n t a t i

  • n
  • f

l

  • c

a l c l i m a t e f e a t u r e s

  • Mo

v i n g a w a y f r

  • m

p a r a m e t e r i z e d t

  • e

x p l i c i t c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n
  • C

P C F P S s t u d y w i t h i n C O R D E X i n i t i a t i v e

  • m

u l t i

  • m
  • d

e l c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p e r m i t i n g e n s e m b l e f

  • r

i n v e s t i g a t i n g c

  • n

v e c t i v e p h e n

  • m

e n a

  • v

e r E u r

  • p

e a n d t h e Me d i t e r r a n e a n

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SLIDE 3

C a s e s t u d y w i t h WR F

  • WR

F m

  • d

e l i n N WP m

  • d

e

  • E

v e n t : 3 Ma y 2 1 7

  • T

h r e e s i m u l a t i

  • n

s : 1 . WR F i n 3 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

w i t h c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p a r a m e t e r i z a t i

  • n

2 . WR F i n 3 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

w i t h

  • u

t c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p a r a m . 3 . WR F i n 1 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

w i t h

  • u

t c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p a r a m e t e r i z a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 4

C a s e s t u d y w i t h WR F

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SLIDE 5

C a s e s t u d y w i t h WR F

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SLIDE 6

C a s e s t u d y w i t h WR F

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SLIDE 7

C

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p e r m i t i n g c l i m a t e m

  • d

e l i n g

  • C

l i m a t e m

  • d

e l s r u n w i t h a h

  • r

i z

  • n

t a l r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

i n k i l

  • m

e t e r s c a l e

  • B

e t e r r e p r e s e n t a t i

  • n
  • f

l

  • c

a l c l i m a t e f e a t u r e s

  • Mo

v i n g a w a y f r

  • m

p a r a m e t e r i z e d t

  • e

x p l i c i t c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n
  • C

P C F P S s t u d y w i t h i n C O R D E X i n i t i a t i v e

  • m

u l t i

  • m
  • d

e l c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p e r m i t i n g e n s e m b l e f

  • r

i n v e s t i g a t i n g c

  • n

v e c t i v e p h e n

  • m

e n a

  • v

e r E u r

  • p

e a n d t h e Me d i t e r r a n e a n

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SLIDE 8

E x p e r i m e n t d e s i g n

  • P

l a n : 1 ) c a s e s t u d i e s i n w e a t h e r

  • l

i k e ( WL ) a n d c l i m a t e m

  • d

e ( C M) f

  • r

s h

  • r

t p e r i

  • d

s 2 ) l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m e v a l u a t i

  • n

s i m u l a t i

  • n

s d r i v e n b y E R A

  • I

n t e r i m

  • 2
  • 2

1 4 3 ) s c e n a r i

  • s

i m u l a t i

  • n

s f

  • r

1 y e a r t i m e s l i c e s

  • Mu

l t i

  • m
  • d

e l e n s e m b l e : R e g C M, C C L M, WR F , R E MO , H C L I M, A R O ME , MO L O C H , C O S MO , U M…

  • R

e g C M s u b

  • g

r

  • u

p : I C T P , C U N I , D H MZ

  • C
  • m

p a r i n g t h e I C T P a n d C U N I r u n s t h a t u s e d i f e r e n t m

  • i

s t u r e s c h e m e : WS M5 v s . N

  • g

h e r

  • t
  • /

T

  • m

p k i n s

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SLIDE 9

C

  • m

p u t a t i

  • n

a l d

  • m

a i n

iy = 575 jx = 605 kz = 41 ds = 3000 clat = 45.441 clon = 8.062 nspgx, nspgy = 30 nested in ICTP EUR-11 simulation

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SLIDE 10

P r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
  • a

n n u a l a v e r a g e 2

E

  • O

B S I C T P C U N I

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SLIDE 11

AL AL EE EE SC SC MT MT IP IP ME ME

R e m i n d e r : C O R D E X E R A

  • I

n t e r i m s i m u l a t i

  • n

s

BI BI FR FR

A n n u a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 12

R e m i n d e r : C O R D E X h i s t

  • r

i c a l s i m u l a t i

  • n

s

A n n u a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 13

P r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

– D J F a v e r a g e 2

E

  • O

B S I C T P C U N I

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SLIDE 14

P r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

– J J A a v e r a g e 2

E

  • O

B S I C T P C U N I

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SLIDE 15

E v a l u a t i

  • n

s t a t i

  • n

s

P r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s t a t i

  • n

n e t w

  • r

k

  • f

C z e c h H y d r

  • m

e t e

  • r
  • l
  • g

i c a l I n s t i t u t e ( p r

  • f

e s s i

  • n

a l s t a t i

  • n

s ) r e d : u s e d f

  • r

t h i s s t u d y

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SLIDE 16

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

A n n u a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 17

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

A n n u a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 18

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D a i l y p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

d i s t r i b u t i

  • n
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SLIDE 19

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 20

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

D a i , A . , L i n , X . & H s u , K L . C l i m D y n ( 2 7 ) 2 9 : 7 2 7 . h t p s : / / d

  • i

.

  • r

g / 1 . 1 7 / s 3 8 2

  • 7
  • 2

6

  • y
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SLIDE 21

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 22

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 23

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 24

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 25

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

D i u r n a l c y c l e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n
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SLIDE 26

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

I n f l u e n c e

  • n

s u r f a c e t e m p e r a t u r e

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SLIDE 27

2 m t e m p e r a t u r e – a n n u a l a v e r a g e 2

E

  • O

B S I C T P C U N I

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SLIDE 28

2 m t e m p e r a t u r e – D J F a v e r a g e 2

E

  • O

B S I C T P C U N I

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SLIDE 29

2 m t e m p e r a t u r e – J J A a v e r a g e 2

E

  • O

B S I C T P C U N I

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SLIDE 30

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

C

  • m

p u t a t i

  • n

a l c

  • s

t s

  • R

e g C M m

  • d

e l i n 5 x 5 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

f

  • r

E u r

  • p

e ( 1 4 4 x 1 4 4 g r i d b

  • x

e s ) : 1 y e a r l

  • n

g s i m u l a t i

  • n

~ 1 d a y

  • n

2 4

  • c
  • r

e c

  • m

p u t e r ( A MD O p t e r

  • n

6 1 4 @ 2 . 6 G H z ) ; t y p i c a l

  • u

t p u t d a t a v

  • l

u m e ~ 3 5 G B / 1 y e a r

  • f

s i m u l a t i

  • n
  • R

e g C M i n 1 2 x 1 2 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

f

  • r

E u r

  • p

e ( 5 3 x 5 3 g r i d b

  • x

e s ) : 1 m

  • n

t h l

  • n

g s i m u l a t i

  • n

~ 2 . 5 d a y s ; 4 G B / 1 m

  • n

t h

  • f

s i m u l a t i

  • n
  • R

e g C M i n 3 x 3 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

f

  • r

t h e A l p s d

  • m

a i n ( 5 7 5 x 6 5 g r i d b

  • x

e s ) : 1 m

  • n

t h l

  • n

g s i m u l a t i

  • n

~ 2 . 5

  • 5

d a y s

  • n

3 8 4 c

  • r

e s ( s a l

  • m
  • n

. i t 4 i . c z , I n t e l X E O N E 5

  • 2

6 9 5 @ 2 . 3 G H z , 1 6 n

  • d

e s ) ; 8 5 G B / 1 m

  • n

t h

  • f

s i m u l a t i

  • n
  • N

WP a n d c l i m a t e m

  • d

e l s n

  • t

v e r y e f i c i e n t i n u s i n g c

  • m

p u t a t i

  • n

a l p

  • w

e r

  • f

m a s s i v e p a r a l l e l c l u s t e r s – u p t

  • 5

%

  • f

t h e p e a k

  • T

w

  • m

a i n b

  • t

l e n e c k s : n

  • d

e

  • n
  • d

e a n d p r

  • c

e s s

  • r
  • m

e m

  • r

y c

  • m

m u n i c a t i

  • n

– d

  • w

e n e e d a d i f e r e n t c

  • m

p u t e r a r c h i t e c t u r e ?

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SLIDE 31

F i r s t l

  • k

a t t h e i n f l u e n c e

  • f

p r e c i p i t a t i

  • n

s c h e m e

  • n

l

  • n

g

  • t

e r m C P C s i m u l a t i

  • n

s w i t h R e g C M

S u m m a r y

  • C

a s e s t u d i e s f

  • r

i n d i v i d u a l c

  • n

v e c t i v e e v e n t s

– s

i m w i t h c

  • n

v e c t i

  • n

p a r a m e t e r i z a t i

  • n

s i n 3 k m r e s

  • l

u t i

  • n

c

  • m

p a r a b l e t

  • 1

k m s i m w i t h

  • u

t p a r a m e t e r i z a t i

  • n

– t

i m e s h i f

  • f

t h e e v e n t

  • L
  • n

g

  • t

e r m s i m u l a t i

  • n

s :

– O

v e r a l l l a r g e b i a s w i t h N / T s c h e m e

– I

n v e r s e b e h a v i

  • r

i n a n n u a l c y c l e – l a r g e p

  • s

i t i v e b i a s i n w i n t e r w i t h N / T s c h e m e , u n d e r e s t i m a t i

  • n

w i t h WS M5 s c h e m e

– C

  • m

p a r a b l e i n d i u r n a l c y c l e s h a p e – c a p t u r e d

  • n

l y i n s

  • m

e r e g i

  • n

s

– N

e e d m

  • r

e t u n i n g – r e q u i r e s a l

  • t
  • f

c

  • m

p u t a t i

  • n

a l r e s

  • u

r c e s