Fleet Capabilities Based Assessment (CBA) ASNE DAY April 8, 2009 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fleet Capabilities Based Assessment (CBA)

ASNE DAY April 8, 2009 Howard Fireman

Director, Future Concepts and Surface Ship Design Group Naval Sea Systems Command

CAPT N b D CAPT Norbert Doerry

Technical Director, Future Concepts and Surface Ship Design Naval Sea Systems Command

March 2009 Approved for Public Release Fireman 1

Motivation – Recent AoAs

• LHA(R) and MPFF

– Final acquisition alternative implemented (after delay) was not q p ( y) part of the recommended solution set from the AoA

• CG(X)

Final acquisition alternative not selected over a year after the – Final acquisition alternative not selected over a year after the

• riginally scheduled completion date

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 2

SECNAVINST 5000.2D 2 Pass 6 Gate Process

Pre‐AOA AOA Pre‐PD PD CD DD & C REQUIREMENTS ‐ design requirements ‐ DESIGN AOA = Analysis of Alternatives PD = Preliminary Design

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 3

CD = Contract Design DD&C = Detail Design and Construction

JROC

Proposed Implementation of SECNAVINST 5000.2D PASS 1: SYSCOM LEAD

CD

Approved ICD + AOA Plan

Requirements, Preferred Solution,

Fleet Level CBA ** ICD(s) Dev CDD Dev

CONOPS Dev

Risks, and Tech Dev Strategy Known

AOA

1 2

Trade-Studies

3

Note: Fleet Level CBA conducted

• n a continuous basis,

i d d t f i di id l

Approved CDD, CONOPS & SDS Plan Navy Selected Alternative & Approval of Navy Approved ICD & AOA Plan

independent of individual programs

Pre AOA Process CONCEPT REFINEMENT

SDS Plan Approval of Risk Mitigation AOA Plan

Concept Formulation Program / D i S E l ti **

Set Based Design

Response Surface Dev Risk Identification

Risk Management & Mitigation

Pre-AOA Process Methods / Activities REFINEMENT

Feb 2009 Not Yet Approved for Public Release CAPT Doerry 4 SDS Plan Dev

Business Case Analysis

Design Space Exploration **

Set Based Design

Response Surface Dev

• Tech. Dev. Strategy Dev

** New Process

Current Pre-AOA Process

National Military Strategy CBA Functional Area Analysis ICD Initial Capabilities Strategic Planning Guidance Contingency Planning Guidance Quadrennial Defense Area Analysis Functional Needs Analysis Functional Capabilities Document Quadrennial Defense Review Report Functional Solutions Analysis CBA Functional Area Analysis ICD Initial Capabilities D t Functional Needs Analysis Functional Document Each Capability treated Independently Solutions Analysis Each Capability treated Independently

FLEET DESIGNED ONE AOA AT A TIME FLEET DESIGNED ONE AOA AT A TIME

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 5 Note: Most Recent JCIDS instruction (March 2009) eliminates the terms FAA, FNA, and FSA

Proposed Process

FUTURE FLEET Architecture FLEET Level CBA National Military St t CBA Strategy Strategic Planning Guidance Contingency Planning Functional Area Analysis Functional ICD Initial Capabilities CBA Functional Area Analysis CBA Functional CBA ICD Initial ICD Guidance Quadrennial Defense Review Report Functional Needs Analysis Functional Solutions p Document Functional Needs Analysis F ti l Functional Area Analysis Functional Needs Analysis Functional Area Analysis Functional Initial Capabilities Document Initial Capabilities Document Solutions Analysis Functional Solutions Analysis y Functional Solutions Analysis Functional Needs Analysis Functional Solutions Solutions Analysis Capabilities treated holistically

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 6 Note: Most Recent JCIDS instruction (March 2009) eliminates the terms FAA, FNA, and FSA

CBA Time Horizons

• Long Range Planning: 15 to 40 years in the future

– Use methods such as Future Force Formulation – Input to 30-year shipbuilding plan – Provide Science & Technology / Discovery & Invention guidance – Recommend Modernization and Service Life Extensions (SLEP)

• Mid Term Planning: FYDP to 15 years in the future

– Produce ICDs to enter the Acquisition Process – Input to 30-year shipbuilding plan – Inform technology development roadmaps

• Near Term Planning: within FYDP

– Concentrates on the number of ships/aircraft/systems to acquire, p y q , modernize, and retire from service to meet affordability goals while best meeting Navy and Joint Force Operational Requirements. FYDP = Future Year Defense Plan > 5 to 6 years

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 7

FYDP = Future Year Defense Plan -> 5 to 6 years

Long Range Planning

• Future is hard to predict
• Analyze multiple futures
• Analyze multiple futures

– Identify common solution elements – Identify when one has to decide on which future to prepare for

D l D ft ICD f l t f d fl t

• Develop Draft ICDs for elements of proposed fleets

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 8

Mid Term Planning

• FYDP to 15 years in the future
• Alternate Futures necked down

to one

• Analysis uses physics based

models

• Trade Industrial Base, Cost,

Capability, and CONOPS to

• ptimize Navy Capability
• Develop ICDs to enter

acquisition.

• Fund work to “get ready” for

g y acquisition

– Risk Reduction – Technology Transition gy – Tool Development

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 9

Short Term Planning

• Optimize fleet with the

Future Year Defense Plan

• Force Structure Dominated

by ships and systems that alread e ist already exist

• Generally dealing with

determining the number of g ships/systems to acquire, modernize, and retire to produce best capability produce best capability within cost constraints.

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 10

Fleet Level CBA Organizational Structure

Senior Navy Leadership Meets ~ every 6 months

Fleet CBA OIPT

Leaders of IPTs Meets ~ every 3 months

Fleet CBA IIPT

Keeps three IPTs aligned Knowledge Management

Fleet Long Range Planning IPT Mid-Term Fleet Architecture IPT Near-Term Fleet Architecture IPT g

Updates Long-Range Architecture ~ every 4 years Updates Mid-Term Updates Near-Term Architecture ~ every year

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 11

Architecture every 4 years Updates Mid Term Architecture ~ every 2 years Architecture every year

Organizational Contributions

Operational Expertise Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) Operational Analysis OPNAV N81, Navy QDR Office (OPNAV) Fleet Representatives Naval Warfare Development Command (NWDC) Navy QDR Office Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Naval War College (NWC) Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) Military Sealift Command (MSC) System Cost and Performance Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) y ( ) Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) Technology Development Office of Naval Research (ONR) (NAVSEA) Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) Naval Facilities Command (NAVFAC) Space & Naval Warfare Systems Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) Naval Undersea Warfare Center Command (SPAWAR) Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Navy Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA) Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) DARPA UARCS Navy Center for Cost Analysis (NCCA)

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 12

Summary

• A Fleet CBA provides a

holistic fleet architecture to b i t t d i i base investment decisions

• Three Time Horizons

– Long Range – Mid Term – Near Term

• Development of these

architectures need to involve the intellectual capability of the entire Navy.

QUESTIONS?

April 2009 Approved for Public Release FIREMAN 13