Forecast for 2020 Southwest monsoon Rainfall and Temperatures over - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Online Session FOCRAII 2020 7 th May 2020 Forecast for 2020 Southwest monsoon Rainfall and Temperatures over south Asia D. S. Pai and O. P. Sreejith Regional Climate Centre, Pune Latest Global SST Departures ( o C) and ENSO Conditions over
Data source CPC, USA
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.4ºC Niño 3.4 0.4ºC Niño 3 0.4ºC Niño 1+2 0.1ºC Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the Pacific Ocean
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MMCFS forecast indicates cooling of SSTs in coming season and enhanced probability for development of La Niña conditions later part of the monsoon season or thereafter.
Plume of Nino 3.4 PDF Corrected Model Forecast – Apr IC Probability of Nino 3.4 PDF Corrected Model Forecast – Apr IC
Neutral IOD conditions are observed over Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during monsoon season.
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JJA 2020 JAS 2020
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JJA 2020 JAS 2020
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Summary : Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2020 southwest monsoon season (June – September) as a whole over most parts
South Asia. Geographically, above-normal rainfall is most likely over the southern part and some areas of northwestern parts
the region. However, below-normal rainfall is most likely over land areas around north Bay
the region. Normal rainfall is most likely
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Forecast JJAS 2019 Observed RF JJAS 2019
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