Fourth-Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call February 7, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call
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Fourth-Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call February 7, 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fourth-Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call February 7, 2019 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). These


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Fourth-Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call

February 7, 2019

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Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws regarding Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). These forward-looking statements relate to, among other things, MPC’s acquisition of Andeavor and include expectations, estimates and projections concerning the business and operations, strategy and value creation plans of MPC. In accordance with "safe harbor" provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, these statements are accompanied by cautionary language identifying important factors, though not necessarily all such factors, that could cause future outcomes to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. You can identify forward-looking statements by words such as "anticipate," "believe," "could," "design," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "goal," "guidance," "imply," "intend," "may," "objective," "opportunity," "outlook," "plan,“ “policy,” "position," "potential," "predict," “priority,” "project," "prospective," "pursue," "seek," "should," "strategy," "target," "would," "will" or other similar expressions that convey the uncertainty of future events or outcomes. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond the company’s control and are difficult to predict. Factors that could cause MPC's actual results to differ materially from those implied in the forward-looking statements include: the risk that the cost savings and any other synergies from the Andeavor transaction may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected; disruption from the Andeavor transaction making it more difficult to maintain relationships with customers, employees or suppliers; risks relating to any unforeseen liabilities of Andeavor; the potential merger, consolidation or combination of MPLX with ANDX; future levels of revenues, refining and marketing margins, operating costs, retail gasoline and distillate margins, merchandise margins, income from operations, net income or earnings per share; the regional, national and worldwide availability and pricing of refined products, crude oil, natural gas, NGLs and other feedstocks; consumer demand for refined products; our ability to manage disruptions in credit markets or changes to our credit rating; future levels of capital, environmental or maintenance expenditures, general and administrative and other expenses; the success or timing of completion of ongoing or anticipated capital or maintenance projects; the reliability of processing units and other equipment; business strategies, growth opportunities and expected investment; share repurchase authorizations, including the timing and amounts of any common stock repurchases; the adequacy of our capital resources and liquidity, including but not limited to, availability of sufficient cash flow to execute our business plan and to effect any share repurchases or dividend increases, including within the expected timeframe; the effect of restructuring or reorganization of business components; the potential effects of judicial or other proceedings on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows; continued or further volatility in and/or degradation of general economic, market, industry or business conditions; compliance with federal and state environmental, economic, health and safety, energy and other policies and regulations, including the cost of compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard, and/or enforcement actions initiated thereunder; the anticipated effects of actions of third parties such as competitors, activist investors or federal, foreign, state or local regulatory authorities or plaintiffs in litigation; the impact of adverse market conditions or other similar risks to those identified herein affecting MPLX or ANDX; and the factors set forth under the heading "Risk Factors" in MPC's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2017, and in MPC's Forms 10-Q, filed with Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We have based our forward-looking statements on our current expectations, estimates and projections about our industry. We caution that these statements are not guarantees of future performance and you should not rely unduly on them, as they involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that we cannot predict. In addition, we have based many of these forward-looking statements on assumptions about future events that may prove to be inaccurate. While our management considers these assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. Accordingly, our actual results may differ materially from the future performance that we have expressed or forecast in our forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements except to the extent required by applicable law. Copies of MPC's Form 10-K and Forms 10-Q are available on the SEC website, MPC's website at http://ir.marathonpetroleum.com or by contacting MPC's Investor Relations office. Non-GAAP Financial Measures Adjusted EBITDA, cash provided from operations before changes in working capital, Refining and Marketing margin and Retail total margin are non-GAAP financial measures provided in this presentation. Reconciliations to the nearest GAAP financial measures are included in the Appendix to this presentation. These non-GAAP financial measures are not defined by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to net income attributable to MPC, net cash provided by (used in) operating, investing and financing activities, Refining and Marketing income from operations, Speedway income from operations or

  • ther financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

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Fourth Quarter Highlights

 Reported fourth-quarter earnings of $951 million or $1.35 per diluted share

– Reflects results from Andeavor combination that closed October 1, 2018 – Earnings include costs of $1.06 per diluted share primarily from transaction-related items

 $2.0 billion of income from operations in the fourth quarter 1

– Refining & Marketing: $923 million of segment income from operations due to high refinery utilization and wide crude differentials – Midstream: $889 million of segment income from operations supported by continued volume growth in underlying businesses – Retail: $613 million of segment income from operations with strong merchandise sales and fuel margins

 $4.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter 2

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1 Includes estimated purchase accounting related inventory effects of $759 million and other transaction-related items. 2 See reconciliation table in the appendix

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Fourth Quarter Highlights (cont.)

 $160 million of realized synergies in the fourth-quarter; reiterate annual gross run-rate expectation of up to $600 million by year-end 2019 and up to $1.4 billion by year-end 2021  $4.2 billion of capital returned to shareholders in 2018

– $3.3 billion of share repurchases in 2018, including $675 million in the fourth quarter – Expect to return at least 50% of discretionary free cash flow1 over the long term

 Announced a 15% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.53 per share

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1 Discretionary free cash flow defined as operating cash flow less maintenance and regulatory capital.

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Realized Synergies – 4th Quarter 2018

 $160 million of realized synergies in 4Q 2018

– Refining & Marketing Segment = $138 million

  • Crude oil supply and logistics = $101 million
  • Refining = $32 million
  • Marketing / Other = $5 million

– Corporate = $22 million

 Realized synergies are incremental to Andeavor-Western synergies, which achieved targeted run-rate of $365 million prior to October 1, 2018 closing

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Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2018 Earnings

Earni ning ngs

2,016 951

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

2017 2018 $MM

Earn arnings p s per D Diluted S Shar are

4.09 1.35

2 4 6 8

2017 2018 $/Share

4Q 4Q 2018 2018 4Q 4Q 2017 2017 2018 2018 2017 2017 Earn arnings* s* $951 MM $2.02 B $2.78 B $3.43 B Earni ning ngs p per er D Diluted S Share* e* $1.35 $4.09 $5.28 $6.70

3Q YTD

$3,432 432 $5.28 28 $6.70 70 $2,780 780

4Q

*Earnings refer to reported Net Income attributable to MPC.

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Transaction-Related and Debt Impacts

 Purchase accounting related inventory effects

– $759 million

 Transaction related expenses

– $183 million

 MPLX debt extinguishment costs

– $60 million

In Millions ns 4Q 4Q18 18 Actual ual Trans nsacti tion- Related and and Othe ther Co Costs Income e fro from Opera eratio ions Refining & Marketing 923 759 759 Midstream 889 Retail 613 Items Not Allocated to Segments (408) 183 183 Total Income from Operations 2, 2,017 017 942 942 Net Interest & Other Financial Income (Costs) (385) 60 60 Income Before Income Taxes 1, 1,632 632 1, 1,002 002 Income Taxes 437 (235) Net Income 1, 1,195 195 767 767 Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest 244 (22) Net Income Attributable to MPC 951 951 745 745 Weighted Average Diluted Share Count 704 704 Earn rnings p per er Share e - Dilut uted $ 1. 1.35 35 $ 1. 1.06 06

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2,016 951 (1,499) 191 546 465 (353) (176) (104) (135) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

4Q 2017 Tax Legislation (b) Refining & Marketing (c)(d) Midstream (c) Retail Items not Allocated to Segments (e) Interest and Other Financing Costs (e) Income Taxes Noncontrolling Interests 4Q 2018

$MM

Earnings(a)

4Q 2018 vs. 4Q 2017 Variance Analysis

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(a) Earnings refer to net income attributable to MPC. (b) Earnings for the fourth quarter 2017 included a tax benefit of approximately $1.5 billion as a result of re-measuring certain net deferred tax liabilities using the lower corporate tax rate enacted in the fourth quarter 2017. (c) Results related to refining logistics and fuels distribution, which is a net of $231 million for the quarter, are presented in the Midstream segment prospectively from February 1, 2018. Prior period information has not been recast. (d) Includes estimated purchase accounting related inventory effects of $759 million. (e) Fourth quarter 2018 includes $183 million of transaction-related costs and approximately $60 million of MPLX debt extinguishment costs.

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732 (755) 923 (331) 806 804 769 (55) (924) 207 (330)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

4Q 2017 Mid-Con WTI 3-2-1 Ex-RIN Crack USGC LLS 3-2-1 Ex-RIN Crack West Coast ANS 3-2-1 Ex-RIN Crack Sour Differentials Sweet Differentials Market Structure Other Margin (a) Direct Operating Costs (b) Other (b) 4Q 2018

$MM

Refining & Marketing Segment Income

4Q 2018 vs. 4Q 2017 Variance Analysis

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(a) Includes estimated purchase accounting related inventory effects of $759 million. (b) Results related to refining logistics and fuels distribution, which is a net of $231 million for the quarter, are presented in the Midstream segment prospectively from February 1, 2018. Prior period information has not been recast.

Volumetric $49 Crude $231 Product $149

  • Prch. Inv. Effects ($759)

Volume Effect

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SLIDE 10

Midstream Segment Income

4Q 2018 vs. 4Q 2017 Variance Analysis

343 331 230 (15) 889

200 400 600 800 1,000

4Q 2017 MPLX (a) ANDX (b) Other Midstream & Equity Affiliates 4Q 2018

$MM

(a) Results related to refining logistics and fuels distribution dropdown into MPLX, which totaled $231 MM for the quarter, are presented in the Midstream segment prospectively from February 1, 2018. Prior periods not adjusted. (b) Andeavor Logistics LP, acquired by Marathon on October 1, 2018

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Retail Segment Income

4Q 2018 vs. 4Q 2017 Variance Analysis

148 204 384 80 (193) (47) 37 613

200 400 600 800 1,000

4Q 2017 Fuel Volume Fuel Margin Merchandise Margin Operating Expense… Depreciation Other 4Q 2018

$MM

(a) Reflects operating, selling, general and administrative expenses.

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Total Consolidated Cash Flow

4Q 2018

4,992 1,687 2,270 457 77 ( 1,450 ) ( 3,369 ) (992) ( 301 ) 3 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

9/30/2018 Cash Balance Operating Cash Flow before Working Capital Working Capital Net Debt Capital Expenditures, Investments Acquistions Return of Capital to Shareholders (a) Net Distributions to Noncontrolling Interests Other 12/31/2018 Cash Balance

$MM

(a) $317 MM dividends plus $675 MM share repurchases

Note: Excludes restricted cash

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Capitalization and Select Balance Sheet Data

(a)Adjustments made to exclude MPLX and ANDX debt (all non-recourse) and the public portions of MPLX and ANDX equity (b)Calculated using face value of total debt and LTM adjusted pro forma EBITDA. Refer to appendix for reconciliation

MP MPC Conso soli lidated MPLX PLX Adjustme stments ts(a)

a)

AND NDX X Adjustme stments ts(a)

a)

MP MPC Ex Excludi uding ng MPLX PLX & & ANDX DX

As of De December 31, 31, 2018 2018 ($MM except ratio data) Debt 27,524 13,393 4,973 9,158 Mezzanine equity 1,004 1,004

  • Equity

44,084 8,336 3,880 31,868 Total capitalization 72,612 22,733 8,853 41,026 Debt-to-capital ratio (book) 38%

  • 22%

Cash and cash equivalents 1,687 68 10 1,609 Debt to LTM Adjusted Pro Forma EBITDA (b) 2.5x

  • 1.3x

Debt to LTM Adjusted Pro Forma EBITDA, w/MPLX LP and ANDX LP distributions (b) N/A

  • 1.1x

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First-Quarter 2019 Outlook

Cru rude Throug ughp hput ut1 Other r Ch Char arge/ Feed Feedstoc

  • cks

ks Throug ughp hput ut1 To Tota tal Throug ughp hput ut1 Sweet eet Cru rude Sour ur Cru rude Turna naround und and d Majo jor Ma Maint ntena nance nce Depr precia iatio ion and d Amortiza izatio ion Other r Man anufac facturing Cost st2 To Tota tal Di Direct t Ope peratin ing C g Costs Cor

  • rpor
  • rate

e and nd O Othe her Unallo allocat ated Ite tems ms3 in MB n MBPD PD Pe Perce cent nt of T Thr hroughput Re Refinery Di Direct t Operati ting Costs ts ($/BBL of To Tota tal Th Throughput) t) Projected 1Q 2019

Gulf Coast Region

1,150 125 1,275 38% 62% $0.75 $1.10 $3.45 $5.30

Mid-Con Region

1,025 50 1,075 71% 29% $1.50 $1.70 $5.00 $8.20

West Coast Region

625 50 675 25% 75% $3.70 $1.45 $7.65 $12.80

MPC T C Tot

  • tal

2,800 150 2,950 48% 52% $1.70 $1.45 $5.05 $8.20 $230 MM

1Q 2018

Gulf Coast Region

1,056 167 1,223 40% 60% $2.87 $1.09 $3.91 $7.87

Midwest Region

689 35 724 62% 38% $0.99 $1.77 $4.16 $6.92

MPC T C Tot

  • tal

1,745 160 1,905 48% 52% $2.22 $1.37 $4.09 $7.68 $89 MM

1 Region throughput data includes inter-refinery transfers, but MPC totals exclude transfers 2 Includes utilities, labor, routine maintenance and other operating costs 3 Excludes transaction costs related to the merger with Andeavor

Note: The company provides certain financial and statistical data on its website not later than the close of business on the second business day following the end of each month, and may also provide additional updates within each month.

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Appendix

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(a) Represents ex-RIN/CBOB adjusted crack spread, which incorporates the market cost of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) for attributable products and the difference between 87 Octane Gasoline and 84 Octane CBOB Gasoline. (b) Based on market indicators using actual volumes. (c) Includes estimated purchase accounting related inventory effects of $759 million.

Refining & Marketing Indicative Margin

4Q 2018

2,699 4,313 859 1,198 (15) (428) (2,266) (1,124) 923 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Blended Crack Spread (a) (b) Sweet Differential (b) Sour Differential (b) Market Structure Other Margin (c) R&M Margin Direct Operating Costs Other R&M Segment Income

$MM

Volume $383 Crude ($170) Products $118

  • Purch. Inv. Effects ($759)

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Earnings

($MM unless otherwise noted) 20 2018 18 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY 2018

Refining & Marketing segment income (loss)(a) (133) 1,025 666 923 2,481 Retail segment income 95 159 161 613 1,028 Midstream segment income(a) 567 617 679 889 2,752 Corporate and other unallocated items (89) (81) (99) (233) (502) Transaction-related costs

  • (10)

(4) (183) (197) Impairments

  • 1
  • 8

9 Income from operations 440 1,711 1,403 2,017 5,571 Net interest and other financing costs 183 195 240 385 1,003 Income before income taxes 257 1,516 1,163 1,632 4,568 Income tax provision (benefit) 22 281 222 437 962 Net income 235 1,235 941 1,195 3,606 Less net income attributable to: Redeemable noncontrolling interest 16 20 19 20 75 Noncontrolling interests 182 160 185 224 751 Net income attributable to MPC 37 1,055 737 951 2,780 Effective tax rate 9% 19% 19% 27% 21%

(a)On February 1, 2018, we contributed certain

refining logistics assets and fuels distribution services to MPLX. The results of these businesses are reported in the Midstream segment prospectively from February 1, resulting in a net increase of $181 million, $232 million, $230 million, $231 million, and $874 million to Midstream segment results and a net decrease to Refining & Marketing segment results of the same amounts in the first, second, third, and fourth quarters and full-year 2018, respectively. No effect was given to prior periods as these entities were not considered businesses prior to February 1, 2018.

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Reconciliation

Net Income Attributable to MPC to Adjusted EBITDA and LTM Adjusted Pro Forma EBITDA

($MM)

1Q ‘18 2Q ‘18 3Q ‘18 4Q ‘18 LTM

Net Income attributable to MPC 37 1,055 737 951 2,780 Add: Net interest and other financial costs 183 195 240 385 1,003 Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests 198 180 204 244 826 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 22 281 222 437 962 Depreciation and amortization 528 533 555 874 2,490 Turnaround costs 173 62 197 226 658 Purchase Accounting Inventory- Related Effects

  • 759

759 Transaction related costs

  • 10

4 183 197 Impairments

  • (1)
  • (8)

(9) Adju djusted EB d EBITDA 1,141 41 2,315 15 2,159 59 4,051 51 9,666 66 Credit Metric Adjustments: Less: Turnaround costs (658) Add: LTM Pro Forma EBITDA related to ANDV 2,356 LT LTM Adju djusted P d Pro F Forma EB EBITDA 11,364 Less: LTM Adjusted EBITDA related to MPLX and ANDX (4,471) LT LTM A Adju djusted d Pro Forma EB EBITDA e excludin ding g MPLX LX a and d ANDX 6,893 93 Add: Distributions to MPC from MPLX and ANDX 1,590 LT LTM Adju djusted d Pro F Forma EB EBITDA excludin ding g MPLX LX a and d ANDX EB EBITDA, in includin ding g LP LP dis distribu ibutio ions t to M MPC 8,483 83

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Reconciliation

MPLX Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA Related to MPLX

($MM)

2018 2018

LTM LTM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

MPLX Net Income 423 456 516 439 1,834 Add: Net interest and other financial costs 130 151 153 227 661 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 4 1 3

  • 8

Depreciation and amortization 176 188 201 201 766 Adjusted EBITDA related to MPLX 733 796 873 867 3,269

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Reconciliation

ANDX Net Income to Adjusted EBITDA Related to ANDX

($MM)

2018 2018

LTM LTM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

ANDX Net Income 131 132 166 171 600 Add: Net interest and other financial costs 55 60 57 61 233 Provision (benefit) for income taxes

  • Depreciation and amortization

89 93 86 101 369 Adjusted EBITDA related to ANDX 275 285 309 333 1,202

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Reconciliation

Cash Provided by (used in) Operations to Operating Cash Flow Before Changes in Working Capital

($MM) 20 2018 18 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY 2018

Cash provided by (used in) operations (137) 2,386 1,182 2,727 6,158 Less changes in working capital: Changes in current receivables 96 (321) (484) 2,298 1,589 Changes in inventories 440 (374) 149 716 931 Changes in current accounts payable and accrued liabilities (1,455) 1,224 (85) (2,482) (2,798) Changes in the fair value of derivative instruments (14) 15 12 (75) (62) Total changes in working capital (933) 544 (408) 457 (340) Operating cash flow before changes in working capital 796 1,842 1,590 2,270 6,498

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Reconciliation

Refining & Marketing Income from Operations to Refining & Marketing Margin

($MM) 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 2018 2017

Refining & Marketing income from operations 923 732 2,481 2,321 Plus: Refinery direct operating costs(a) 1,889 1,084 4,801 4,113 Refinery depreciation & amortization 377 258 1,089 1,013 Other: Operating expenses, net(a)(b) 1,088 350 3,189 1,425 Depreciation and amortization 36 19 85 69 Refining & Marketing margin(c) 4, 4,313 313 2, 2,443 443 11, 11,64 645 8, 8,941 941

(a) Excludes depreciation and amortization. (b) Includes fees paid to MPLX and ANDX (4Q18 only) for various midstream services. MPLX’s and ANDX’s results are reported in MPC’s Midstream segment. (c) Refining & Marketing margin is defined as sales revenue less cost of refinery inputs and purchased products, excluding any LCM inventory market adjustment. We believe this non-GAAP financial measure is useful to investors and analysts to assess our ongoing

financial performance because, when reconciled to its most comparable GAAP measure, it provides improved comparability between periods through the exclusion of certain items that we believe are not indicative of our core operating performance and that may obscure our underlying business results and trends. This measure should not be considered a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP, and our calculations thereof may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies.

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Reconciliation

Retail Income from Operations to Retail Total Margin

($MM) 4Q 2018 4Q 2017 2018 2017

Retail income from operations 613 148 1,028 729 Plus (Less): Operating, selling, general and administrative expenses 593 400 1,796 1,533 Depreciation and amortization 125 78 353 275 Income from equity method investments (23) (15) (74) (69) Net gain on disposal of assets (16) (2) (17) (14) Other income (2) (5) (7) (14) Retail total margin 1, 1,290 290 604 604 3, 3,079 079 2, 2,440 440 Retail total margin:(a) Fuel margin 848 260 1,547 1,008 Merchandise margin 417 337 1,486 1,402 Other margin 25 7 46 30 Retail total margin 1, 1,290 290 604 604 3, 3,079 079 2, 2,440 440

(a)Retail gasoline and distillate margin is defined as the

price paid by consumers less the cost of refined products, including transportation, consumer excise taxes and bank card processing fees and excluding any LCM inventory market adjustment. Retail merchandise margin is defined as the price paid by consumers less the cost of merchandise. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors and analysts to assess our ongoing financial performance because, when reconciled to the most comparable GAAP measures, they provide improved comparability between periods through the exclusion

  • f certain items that we believe are not indicative of
  • ur core operating performance and that may obscure
  • ur underlying business results and trends. These

measures should not be considered a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP, and our calculations thereof may not be comparable to similarly titled measures reported by other companies.

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