Free Trade Agreements – a global perspective
March 2015
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Free Trade Agreements a global perspective March 2015 Agenda Part - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
www.pwc.com/ch Free Trade Agreements a global perspective March 2015 Agenda Part 1 Introduction by Ambassador Thomas Kupfer Part 2 European Overview Part 3 Free Trade Agreement an overview Part 4 Practical and operational challenges
March 2015
www.pwc.com/ch
PwC
Agenda
Part 1 Introduction by Ambassador Thomas Kupfer Part 2 European Overview Part 3 Free Trade Agreement – an overview Part 4 Practical and operational challenges in Free Trade Agreements Part 5 Future Free Trade Agreements Part 6 Q&A - Closing
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Estonia France Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg Portugal Spain Switzerland US
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % of GDP Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Switzerland US
Public debt as % of GDP
Source: IMF
Evolution of the Euro crisis
stimulation Public debt as % of GDP Late 2009: Increasing government debt Early 2010: Intensified concerns in certain European countries May-2010: 1st Greece bail-out package (€ 100bn) Creation of European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) Nov-2010: Ireland bail-out package (€67.5bn) Jan- 2011: Created European Financial Stability Mechanism (EFSM) May-2011: Portugal bail-out package (€70bn) Oct-2011: 2nd Greece bail-out package (€130bn 50% write-off Greek debt €100bn) Jun-2012: Spain bail-out package (€100bn) Mid-2013: Replace EFSF & EFSM with European Stability Mechanism (EFM)
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0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2000 - 05 2006 - 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % GDP Growth EU UK US
EU Growth forecast
Sources: European Commission, IMF, World Bank, Oanda, Bloomberg, Reuters,Scotiabank, PwC Analysis
European Union % GDP Growth, 2000 - 17
2014 Slow recovery: Unfinished macroeconomic adjustment Slow implementation of reforms Failure in recovery of investments 2015 – 17 Brighter outlook: Sharp decline in oil prices Depreciation of the Euro ECB’s QE easing and EU Investment Plan
Stimulating Growth Restricting Growth Key Risks
(e.g. oil, metals)
competitiveness of EU products and services
stimulating private consumption
economic programs stimulating investments and demand
EU member states weakens competitiveness
Russia crisis (Sanctions)
programs negatively impact domestic growth
uncertainty cause social unrests and prevent long-term investments
agreements
disruptions relating to the Ukraine / Russia conflict
Russia
states with negative impacts on workforce mobility and availability 3 March 2015 6
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Over the next 3 years the EUR is expected to meet the USD value
Sources: European Commission, IMF, World Bank, Oanda, Bloomberg, Reuters,Scotiabank, PwC Analysis
US$/Euro Exchange Rate, 2010 - 17
0.70 0.75 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.86 0.95 1.00 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Euro
2014 - 15 18% depreciation against US$ Deviation of US monetary policy from EU 2015 – 17 Brighter outlook: Improve price competitiveness of European companies Further hike inflation in 2016 3 March 2015 7
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The impact of a Grexit on the EU growth significantly decreased in the last two years
2 4 6 2000-05 2006-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % GDP Growth EU Greece Sources: European Commission, IMF, World Bank, IEA, ING, Bloomberg, Reuters, Independent UK, PwC Analysis
Greece
148.3 171.3 156.9 174.9 176.3 170.2 159.2 152.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % of GDP Govt Gross Debt Total Govt Revenue 2014 Rebound to growth: Rising private consumption Strong growth in exports, tourism & shipping 2015 - 17: Implementation of agreed structural reforms Exports growth due to euro depreciation
Assessment of Grexit:
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The UK is significantly contributing to the EU growth, however an exit would reduce the UK’s ability to influence and serve EU markets
Sources: European Commission, IMF, World Bank, IEA, ING, Bloomberg, Reuters, Independent UK, PwC Analysis
United Kingdom
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2000-05 2006-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % GDP Growth UK EU 2014 Solid growth: Strong domestic demand Formation of gross fixed capital 2015 - 17: Reduction in oil prices Buoyant private consumption Continued growth in investment
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2000-05 2006-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 % GDP Growth UK leaves EU EU
Assessment of Brexit:
Impact of Brexit
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2014 - 15 2015 – 17 Outlook Severely impacted by global decline in oil prices 80% depreciation of Rouble against US$ Retaliatory sanctions hike inflation Dependent on geopolitical tensions & sanctions If low oil prices continue:
removed 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.1 53.2 56.9 60.8 65.0 69.4 74.1 96.2 56.7 63.9 68.0 70.9 72.1 72.6 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 US$/barrel Historical World Bank IMF
Russia sharp slowdown spills over to CIS
Sources: IMF, World Bank, OPEC, Oanda, Bloomberg, Reuters, Forbes, Scotiabank, PwC analysis
CIS, Ukraine & Russia % GDP Growth, 2000 - 17
0.0 5.0 10.0 2000 - 05 2006 - 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % GDP Growth Russia Ukraine CIS 2014 Sharp deceleration: Geopolitcal tensions – Russia & Ukraine Spillovers from weakness in Russia & Europe 2015 – 17 Moderate recovery: Russia & Ukraine: Oct 14 Ceasefire agreement Modest recovery in Euro area demand Ukraine: Uncertain outlook, 2016-17 recovery dependent
29.9 29.2 29.8 30.2 35.2 63.5 63.0 60.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Rouble
World Crude Oil Prices, 2010 - 20 US$/ Rouble Exchange Rate, 2010 - 17 Russia 3 March 2015 10
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Risks to consider when investing in EU
Key Countries Trend / Topic Consequences PwC Publications
GREXIT
to more austerity measures and a decrease in governmental spending
PwC Greece Partner BREXIT
UK firms to sell goods to continental Europe
economy
2014 EUR/USD
currency, however, could pay off as companies Ukraine crisis
investments in Russia less valuable and hits companies exporting to Russia hard
war‘
in Ukraine Surge in popularity of nationalist parties
freedom of movement or residence can be the result of nationalist movements in EU countries Free Trade Agreements 3 March 2015 11
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What does that all mean to your business?
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CEOs are more optimistic about mature markets this year
Q: Which countries, excluding the one in which you are based, do you consider most important for your overall growth prospects over the next 12 months? Source: PwC 18th Annual Global CEO Survey
2015 2014 2015 2014
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Country analysis should be reviewed regularly to avoid surprises
Average real wages % change p.a. Average wage per month (US = 100)
“Five years ago, if you asked me the best place to set up a factory, first would be China, second would be China, and third would be China”, he says. “Today it’s very different.”
Harry Lee, Chief Executive Officer, Tal Apparel, Hong Kong garment maker Source: The Economist Source: PwC, ‘Global wage projections to 2030’ (September 2013
“The utopia for one-stop sourcing for quality and low price has been China … but utopias never last”
Matt Rubel, Chief Executive Officer, Collective Brands Philippines India Mexico China Poland South Africa Turkey Spain UK US 20 40 60 80 100 2013 2030
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
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Europe is the largest and most accessible market
Private consumption at current market exchange rates
Source: Oxford Economics, PwC the 15th annual global CEO survey 2012
European is perceived to be the easiest market for export
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sub-Saharan Africa China Russia and other CIS Middle East and North Africa Japan Australia and other Oceania Latin America Rest of Asia US EU Very difficult Somewhat difficult Not difficult at all Source: Oxford Economics
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Europe’s attractiveness to Chinese companies …..
advanced technology
and capabilities
Chinese FDI in EU-27 Chinese direct investments in EU-27 vs. US Chinese direct investments in EU-27 by industry
Automotive 12% Chemicals 17% Communica- tions 6% Natural resources 8% Electronics 6% Machinery 5% Other 18% Transportation 6% Metal mining & processing 6% Utilities 16%
Are European brands a steal?
and strong domestic demand
legal and regulatory environment
force
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European brands are a steal!
Eurozone confidence heat map
Source: PwC Global Economy Watch
“The kind of assets that Chinese companies look for overseas has also begun to shift, from natural resources and energy, to an emerging appetite for consumer brands”
Squire Sanders
Opportunities in brand and innovation base acquisitions as well as market access
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Europe – a truly diversified continent
Eurozone & EU countries EU countries Other European countries 2011 average annual salary in constant USD
Note: China average wage in 2010 Source: OCED, Romania National Institute of Statistics, State Statistics Services of Ukraine, Turkish Statistical Institute
Average wage of selected Asian countries 20,273 United Kingdom Spain Portugal France Germany Italy Hungary Sweden Poland 50,366 53,069 46,984 22,549 37,583 39,112 47,704 13,811 14,177 Czech Republic 16,922 54,459 81,475 Norway Finland Ireland 66,822 Estonia 14,955 Greece 28,434 7,912 3,838 23,671 8,775 Russia Ukraine Bulgaria Romania Turkey China 5'747 Malaysia 5'824 Philippines 2'246 Vietnam 1'152 Indonesia 1'089 India 943
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Germany
2'131
United
Kingdom 1'756 France 1'506 Italy 1'151 Spain 717
Netherlands
446
Switzerland
301 Belgium 272
Poland
262
Austria
231 Denmark 171
Finland
150
Greece
143
Portugal
123
Ireland
123
Czech
Republic 83
Hungary
57 15'000 20'000 25'000 30'000 35'000 40'000 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2011 GDP per capita GDP CAGR% (2000 - 2011)
High potential markets Eurozone average GDP CAGR 1.2%
Different characteristics of individual countries, driving different value propositions
Mercedes-Benz C-Class EUR 35,000 Dacia Sandero EUR 9,000
Source: Eurostat
Switzerland as a pilot market for Europe
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1000km
Switzerland’s relevance to your European strategy
London 1:40 Paris 1:15 Berlin 1:25 Rome 1:30 Barcelona 1:40 Vienna 1:20 Warsaw 1:40 Prague 1:15
a multi-cultural segmented consumer market for product research, providing pilot markets for the 3 largest EU neighbour markets (jointly account for 67% GDP of Eurozone and nearly 50% GDP of EU)
travels to visit your customers and business partners
From Zurich From Dublin
Paris 1:15 1:45 Berlin 1:25 2:15 Rome 1:30 3:00 London 1:40 1:25 Barcelona 1:40 3:25 Prague 1:15 2:40 Warsaw 1:40 3:00 Comparison of flight time
500km
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What does a Free Trade Agreement cover?
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Different topics included to cover individual needs of contracting parties
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Free Trade Agreements: The Spaghetti Bowl Effect
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Quelle: WTO Discussion Papers No. 12 “The Changing Landscape of Regional Trade Agreements: 2006 Update”, via www.wcoomd.org
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Free Trade Agreement – an overview
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Figures according to World Trade Organization as of 8 January 2015
Agreements notified Agreements in force
Are they the same? Bilateral and multilateral agreements Asymmetric rules possible (e.g. different duty reduction on each side) Different rules in each agreement possible
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Implications of a FTA for a production company
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Business model alignment to build up presence in new markets and to gain customer base and to benefit from the geographic location, competencies, regulatory environment and
In addition to the customs benefits provided in the FTA, a tax-optimized business model can be implemented taking into account the entire value chain which allows you to build an operationally robust business set-up that simultaneously allows you to manage your tax burden properly and in a suitable manner
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Value Chain Transformation
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Chinese Manufacturer EU Customer Swiss Trader No duties under the Free Trade Agreement Standard duty rates Textiles and textile articles: between 0,0% and 12,0% Footwear and the like: between 3,0% and 17,0% Chinese Manufacturer EU Customer Swiss Manufacturer No duties under the China – Swiss Free Trade Agreement No duties under the EU – Swiss Free Trade Agreement Semi-finished goods Finished goods
Transforming the Value Chain
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Customs Tariff Classification Important aspect for the customs handling
Example: Coffee Machine
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Imports China under the FTA with Switzerland
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Impacts of currency exchange fluctuations on qualification
Exchange rate 1.20 Exchange rate 1.00 Raw Material EU (in EUR) 4’500 4’500 Raw Material EU (in CHF) 5’400 4’500 Raw material CH & value add 2’600 2’600 Profit 2’000 2’000 Ex-works price 10’000 9’100 No Swiss Origin Swiss Origin Freight costs 1’000 1’000 Customs duties China 32.0% / 3’520 19.2% / 1’939 Total costs procurement 14’520 12’039 Advantage 2’481 (17.1%)
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Coffee machine / Rule of Origin Swiss China FTA: Non originating material <50%
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How can a company prepare?
Building up know-how to be familiarised to apply the different rules Creating awareness amongst different departments Customs responsible or FTA champion Including free trade topic in the development of new products or in the purchasing and sales department Customs tariff classification Automated issuing of
Origin calculation Regular updates (e.g. new agreements, changed rules
People IT Processes
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It’s all about interpretation… part 1
Department of Foreign Trade in Province A in Thailand to certify preferential
Thailand Authorities.
Authority located in the same Province as the port of loading.
preferential treatment of the goods at importation.
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Multiple party transactions - Back-to-Back (B2B)
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(cost-effectiveness as location consideration) and HQ in another (tax-
and manufacturer are the same, or at least located in the same country
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Third Party Customer Third Party Manufacturer / Supplier
Third Party Invoicing
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Flow of goods Flow of invoices
China Singapore Company B Regional HQ USD $100 Certificate of Origin Malaysia USD $300
Trade Agreement: ASEAN – China FTA
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ACFTA – FORM E
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Third Party Customer Third Party Manufacturer / Supplier
Third Party Invoicing – Back-to-Back CoO (MC)
Flow of goods Flow of invoices
China Singapore Company B Regional HQ USD $100 Certificate of Origin Malaysia USD $300
Trade Agreement: ASEAN – China FTA
CoO Movement Certificate
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(d) The product which is to be re-exported using MC shall be under control of the Customs Authority of the intermediate Party. The products shall not undergo any further processing in the intermediate Party, except for repacking and logistics activities consistent with Rule 8 of the Rules of Origin for the ACFTA Extracted from Rule 12 of the Revised OCP for the rules of origin of the ACFTA
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ACFTA – FORM E
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Last but not least, it’s all about interpretation… part 2
invoicing that only 3 parties can be involved in the value chain. If there is a fourth party involved, or more, questions might be raised by the importing Authority and as a consequence, an interruption of the supply chain.
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Global Trends
FTAs it becomes closer
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Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
investment treaty
and supply chains among TPP members
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Members 2005: Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore 2008: United States, Australia, Peru, Vietnam Malaysia (2010); Mexico, Canada (2012); Japan (2013) Potential members: China, Korea (announced interest in 2013), Taiwan, Philippines, Laos, India, Colombia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Bangladesh
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Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)
and E-Commerce
textiles, chemicals, cars)
intellectual property, competition policy)
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Members European Union and United States Potential members: Albania, Iceland, The former Yugoslav Republic
Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey (EU accession candidates) TTIP indicated to be open for other members once in force
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Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
problems thanks to harmonization of Rules of Origin and faciliation
vary depending the member country
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Members ASEAN +6 (Australia, China, India, Japan, Korea, New Zealand)
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ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)
Production base, (2) Competitive Economic Region, (3) Equitable Economic development, (4) Integration into the global Economy
policies and gradual removal of restrictive policies
common external tariff, not a political union, customs borders will remain
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Members ASEAN “Implementation date” 31 December 2015
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Looking ahead
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Felix Sutter Partner Risk Assurance Services, Head Asia Desk PricewaterhouseCoopers AG, Zurich Phone: +41 58 792 28 20 felix.sutter@ch.pwc.com Simeon L. Probst Director Customs & VAT PricewaterhouseCoopers AG, Basel Phone: ++41 58 792 5351 simeon.probst@ch.pwc.com Michel Anliker Manager Customs PwC WMS Asia, Singapore Phone: ++65 6236 7307 michel.anliker@sg.pwc.com
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Customs & International Trade Compliance in Asia Pacific - doing the groundwork
Why should you attend?
Any professional involved in the cross –border buying or selling of goods is touched by trade compliance considerations. Whether employed in supply chain operations, planning, procurement, or finance, the failure to understand and plan around import/export regulatory requirements can lead to unanticipated costs and a lot of wasted time. Product delays, stock-
common consequences of compliance failures. Many businesses operating in Asia Pacific choose to have their logistics service provider (“LSP”) handle customs formalities at overseas borders; relying on their operational knowledge and relationships with customs officials. However LSPs often lack technical training and the legal responsibility for customs compliance remains with the owner of the
To equip Singapore based business professionals with the ability to take a more informed and pro-active role in the management of customs and trade risk in Asia Pacific, we will cover the following topics during this two-day workshop:
functions, LSP, and customs authorities
Expand your horizons with customs and international trade know-how
Workshop details
Date: 25 & 26 March 2015 Time: 9.00am to 5.00pm Venue: 8 Cross Street, PWC Building, Level 17, Singapore 048424
Fees PwC Clients, Alumni & Public: S$980 Fees includes 7% GST, refreshments and workshop kit. Who should attend?
Sales, procurement, logistics, supply chain planners, and legal and finance professionals who wish to build their knowledge of cross- border trade compliance to better manage business risk and identify trade savings
PwC’s Academy