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T h e 1 4 t h A I M I n t e r n a t i o n a l W o r k s h o p T h e 1 4 t h A I M I n t e r n a t i o n a l W o r k s h o p Fut ure Est imat ion of I ron St ock & Flow in J apan and

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SLIDE 1

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Fut ure Est imat ion of I ron St ock & Flow in J apan and China

Reina Kawase Kyot o Universit y

15-16, Febr uar y 2009 At Ohyama Memor ial Hall Nat ional I nst it ut e f or Envir onment al St udies, Tsukuba, J apan

T h e 1 T h e 1 4 4 t h A I M I n t e r n a t i

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a l W

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k s h

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t h A I M I n t e r n a t i

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SLIDE 2

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Title: Development of Iron Stock & Flow Model in Japan and China Description: Material Stock and Flow Model (MSFM) Goods: Building, Civil engineering structures, Car, Ship, Other transport equipment, Machine, Electrical machine, Business machine, Others 9 kinds (JPN) 7kinds (CHN)

Review of last year

Periods: 1970-2002(JPN) 1984-2005(CHN) Outputs: Steel stock, Input to stock, Scrap generation by final demand goods

P i g I r

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I r

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O r e O t h e r M T L P i g I r

  • n

C r u d e S t e e l P R S S c r a p C r u d e S t e e l S t e e l S t e e l L a n d f i l l C a r B u i l d i n g C v l . E N G O t h e r F C C a r B u i l d i n g C i v i l E n g . S t r u c t u r e s O t h e r S c r a p S h i p S h i p I n d . M C N I n d . M a c h i n e T r s . M C N O t h e r T R S e q u i p . E l e . M C N E l e . M a c h i n e H s h . M C N H s h . M a c h i n e S t

  • c

k G

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s P r

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u c t i

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S e c t

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D P R S c r a p M i n e

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SLIDE 3

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Methodology (Example of Japan)

  • 1. Calculate Steel Stock by final demand goods :1970-2002

Steel stock by final demand goods

Required data: Steel input to goods Goods production,,,,,, Eq.

  • 3. Future estimation

Steel stock by goods＝f（ GDP per capita, POP, Const ? ? ?） Assumption of exogenous variables (trade, tech_parameters)

,

_ _

i k i k k

Steel INP d Good PRD

  • Input-output relation

Goods balance Sector balance ,,,,,,,,

250 500 750 1000 1250 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Steel Stock (Mil ton)

  • 2. Identify the relationship between the Steel Stock and Socio_economic

index

① ② ③

Regression analysis

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SLIDE 4

4

Steel input to f inal demand goods

I _ S C N S F M P O M E E L E M V H O T N O M F O T H t

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a l C G D H O U I M P E X P t

  • t

a l O M N 1 . . . 0 1 2 . 3 2 . 3 I _ S 1 7 . 2 8 . 4 2 8 . 4 2 . 7 1 6 . 3 . 7 1 . 9 7 . 3 . . 7 . 8 3 . 9 C N S . 1 . 1 2 5 . 5 . . . 2 5 . 5 F M P . 2 1 . 3 4 . 8 4 . 7 1 . 9 1 . 5 . 2 . 8 5 . 2 2 9 . 5 1 . 1 . 6 2 . 1 1 . 9 1 . 5 O M E . 1 1 . 3 . 2 8 . 1 1 . 7 . 7 . 2 . 3 1 . 9 1 4 . 4 1 3 . 6 1 . 5 4 . 1 1 1 . 8 2 2 . 8 E L E . 1 . 5 1 . 3 . 2 . 1 . 5 2 . 6 1 . 9 1 . 2 . 9 2 . 1 4 . 3 M V H 1 1 . 5 . 1 . 6 1 2 . 3 3 . 5 4 . 8 . 6 6 . 9 1 4 . 6 O T N . 6 1 . 5 2 . 1 . 4 . . 5 1 . 5 2 . 4 O M F . 1 . . 2 . 1 . 1 . 5 1 . . 4 . 4 . 2 . 2 . 7 E n v i r

  • n

. S c r a p O 1 . 4 1 . 4 2 . 2 4 . 2 . 8 3 . . 5 . 2 . 5 . . 4 . 7 2 . 6 S c r a p I 2 7 . 8 9 F i n a l I n t e r m e d i a t e

CNS CNS Metal Products Machine ELE MVH MVH Other Trans. Other Manufacture Products 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Sector Goods Machine Including extraction

Steel Flow (100 =input to I_S sector)

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SLIDE 5

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I dentif y the relationship between the Steel Stock and Socio_economic index (CHN)

Steel Stock per Capita increases in proportion to increase of GDP per Capita => Steel Stock per Capita = a* GDP/ CAP + b

. . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 1 9 9 5 2 2 5 S t e e l S t

  • c

k p e r C a p i t a i n C H N ( t

  • n

/ C A P ) C V L B L D C A R S H P T R S M C N . . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 5 1 1 5 2 G D P p e r C A P ( 2 U S D ) S t e e l S t

  • c

k p e r C A P i n C H N （ t

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/ C A P )

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SLIDE 6

6

Assumption of trade, f uture GDP

  • 2

%

  • 1

5 %

  • 1

%

  • 5

% % 5 % 1 % 1 5 % 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 6 2 2 4

N e t i m p

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t / d

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e s t i c i n p u t ( % )

I r

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O r e P i g i r

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C r u d e s t e e l C A R S H P M C N O T H

Export

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 G D P ( b i l l

  • n

2 U S D ) A k a s h i ( 2 8 ) I E O 8 G S P W C R I T E

← Net import rate to domestic input ↓ GDP Net import rate is fixed to without large change : the rate in 2005 with large change : average rate of past 5 years

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SLIDE 7

7

Steel Stock in CHN

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 6

1 9 6 01 9 7 01 9 8 01 9 9 02 02 1 02 2 02 3

USA Japan Italy Germany China U.K France

＜Stock total＞ ・ 2.02 bil ton (2005)， 9.64 bil ton (2030) ． ・ BLD = 53.6％， MCN = 29.8％． (From 2005, total of top 2 = 80％ ） ＜Steel stock per capita ＞ ・ 1.5 ton per capita (2005)，6.6 ton per capita (2030)， ・ The serial changes = same as those of Japan and Italy as they were 40 years ago

2 4 6 8 1 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 S t e e l s t

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k ( b i l . T

  • n

) C A R S H P T R S M C N B L D C V L

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SLIDE 8

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Production and I nvestment

・ Steel production: 1.22 bil. ton（ 2030, 3.3 times of 2005） =World steel production in 2006 ・ Other= 28.2％， Buildings=27.7％， Machinery= 26.8％， ・ Steel investment: 0.84 bil. ton（ 2030） , export of CAR is large.

C A R S H P T R S M C N B L D C V L O T H

2 3 2 3 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 S t e e l p r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

（ 1 M i l . t

  • n

） 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 S t e e l i n v e s t m e n t （ 1 M i l . t

  • n

）

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SLIDE 9

9

Scrap generation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 5 2 5 2 1 5 2 2 5 S c r a p g e n e r a t i

  • n

（ 1 M i l . t

  • n

）

The shares of OTH & MCN are large.

OTH: not accumulated as

  • stock. Consumption = Scrap．

MCN: shorter lifetime < CVL(30yr), BLD(25yr). Scrap generation from stock is large.

2 3 C A R S H P T R S M C N B L D C V L O T H

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 9 2 4 S c r a p i m p

  • r

t （ M i l . t

  • n

） W

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l d s c r a p i m p

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t t

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a l S c r a p c

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s u m p t i

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i n C H N S c r a p i m p

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t

Is it possible that scrap demand is supplied by scrap generation within China?

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SLIDE 10

10

Scenario analysis of recycle rate of scrap

S c r a p c

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s u m p t i

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f

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c r u d e s t e e l p r

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u c t i

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C u r r e n t c a s e ( C R ) : 1 5 ％ a t c u r r e n t l e v e l U p c a s e ( U R ) ： i n c r e a s e u p t

  • 4

5 ％ b y 2 1 5 s a m e a s J a p a n ’s r a t e I n t h e “C u r r e n t c a s e ”, s c r a p g e n e r a t i

  • n

i n c r e a s e s m

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e t h a n s c r a p c

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s u m p t i

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, s

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e c y c l i n g r a t e d

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s n ’t i n c r e a s e ． I n t h e “U p c a s e ”, s c r a p c

  • n

s u m p t i

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w

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l d b e a b l e t

  • b

e s u p p l i e d w i t h i n C h i n a . B u t h i g h r e c y c l i n g l e v e l s

  • f
  • v

e r 7 % w

  • u

l d b e r e q u i r e d .

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 2 5 2 1 0 2 1 5 2 2 0 2 2 5 2 3

S c r a p c

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s u m p t i

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（ 1 M i l t

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）

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

S c r a p r e c y c l i n g r a t i

  • (

% )

S c r a p c

  • n

s u m p t i

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（ C R ) S c r a p c

  • n

s u m p t i

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（ U R ） R e c y c l i n g R a t e （ C R ） R e c y c l i n g R a t e U P ）

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SLIDE 11

11

I dentif y the relationship between the Steel Stock and Socio_economic index (JPN)

Except for CVL and BLD, steel stock per capita is almost constant. The growth of CVL and BLD is gradual. => constant

. . 5 1 . 1 . 5 2 . 2 . 5 3 . 3 . 5 4 . 4 . 5 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 S t e e l S t

  • c

k p e r C a p i t a i n J P N ( t

  • n

/ C A P ) C V L B L D C A R S H P T R S O M E E L E H S H O T H . . 5 1 . 1 . 5 2 . 2 . 5 3 . 3 . 5 4 . 4 . 5 1 5 2 2 5 3 3 5 4 G D P p e r C A P ( 2 U S D ) S t e e l S t

  • c

k p e r C A P i n J P N （ t

  • n

/ C A P )

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SLIDE 12

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Assumption of Population, Trade

Net import rate to domestic input: SHP -100% Others: 2002 level Population 128 million (2008) scenarioA 94 mil. (73% of 2008 level) scenarioB 100 mil. (78% of 2008 level) Trade

  • 1

5 %

  • 1

%

  • 5

% % 5 % 1 % 1 5 % 1 9 7 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 1 9 9 5 2 N e t i m p

  • r

t / d

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e s t i c i n p u t ( % ) I r

  • n

O r e P i g i r

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C r u d e s t e e l C A R S H P M C N E L E , H S H O T H

  • 1

5 %

  • 1

%

  • 5

% % 5 % 1 % 1 5 % 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 2 5 N e t i m p

  • r

t / d

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e s t i c i n p u t ( % ) I r

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O r e P i g i r

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C r u d e s t e e l C A R S H P M C N E L E , H S H O T H

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SLIDE 13

13

Crude steel Production

Export Scrap Population is driving force of crude steel production => 22-27% reduction How much is the export rate of crude steel reduced? Scenario B

1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 9 7 C r u d e s t e e l, S t e e l p r

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u c t i

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（ M i l . t

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）

C V L B L D C A R S H P T R S O M E E L E H S H O T H C R S _ P R D

1 4

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SLIDE 14

14

Scenario analysis 1: crude steel Production

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 C r u d e s t e e l p r

  • d

u c t i

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( m i l . t

  • n

) A n e t e x p 3 8 % B n e t e x p 3 8 % A n e t e x p % B n e t e x p %

Current Import rate: 5%, Export: 43% => Net Export 8% 79 mil 74 mil 57 mil 54 mil

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SLIDE 15

15

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 S t e e l S t

  • c

k ( M i l l i

  • n

t

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)

① Base case ② lengthen Lifetime 30% ③ Investment Constant ④ Investment 2% decrease Future CVL: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 S t e e l S t

  • c

k ( M i l l i

  • n

t

  • n

) 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 S t e e l S t

  • c

k ( M i l l i

  • n

t

  • n

) 2 4 6 8 1 1 2 1 4 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 S t e e l S t

  • c

k ( M i l l i

  • n

t

  • n

)

C A R S H P T R S O M E E L E H S H O T H

Scenario analysis 2: CVL investment (B)

. . 5 1 . 1 . 5 2 . 2 . 5 3 . 3 . 5 4 . 4 . 5 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 S t e e l S t

  • c

k p e r C a p i t a i n J P N ( t

  • n

/ C A P )

C V L B L D

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SLIDE 16

16

990

. . 5 1 . 1 . 5 2 . 2 . 5 3 . 3 . 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 2 1 0 2 2 0 2 3 0 2 4 0 2 5 C V L S t e e l S t

  • c

k p e r C a p i t a ( t

  • n

/ C A P ) p e r C a p i t a C

  • n

s t I n v e s t m e n t C

  • n

s t I n v e s t m e n t 2 % d c r e a s e 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 0 2 0 2 1 0 2 2 0 2 3 0 2 4 0 2 5 C r u d e s t e e l p r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

( m i l . t

  • n

) B n e t e x p 3 8 % B n e t e x p 3 8 % l

  • n

g L T I n v e s t m e n t C

  • n

s t I n v e s t m e n t 2 % d c r e a s e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 C r u d e s t e e l , S t e e l p r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

（ M i l . t

  • n

）

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 C r u d e s t e e l , S t e e l p r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

（ M i l . t

  • n

）

Base case 2% decrease

Scenario analysis 3:perCAP, Production

slide-17
SLIDE 17

17

T h a n k y

  • u
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SLIDE 18

18

P i g I r

  • n

I r

  • n

O r e P i g I r

  • n

C r u d e S t e e l M a r k e t S c r a p C r u d e S t e e l S t e e l S t e e l L a n d f i l l C A R B L D C V L C A R B L D C V L R e c y c l e d S c r a p S H P S H P M C N M C N T R S T R S S t

  • c

k G

  • d

s P r

  • d

u c t i

  • n

S e c t

  • r

D e l e t i

  • n

S c r a p M i n e T r a d e S t e e l f l

  • w

S c r a p f l

  • w

O T H

Steel Flow