Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies Kaushik Basu - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies Kaushik Basu - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 15, 2023 153 likes •225 views

Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies Kaushik Basu Chief Economist and Sr. Vice President The World Bank Institute of Geoscience and Natural Resources University of Copenhagen November 29, 2012 Financial market jitters have eased lower

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Global Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Economies

Kaushik Basu

Chief Economist and Sr. Vice President The World Bank Institute of Geoscience and Natural Resources University of Copenhagen November 29, 2012

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Financial market jitters have eased lower borrowing costs for emerging markets

1

Source: World Bank Prospects Group, Global Economic Monitor Database.

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2008M01 2008M03 2008M05 2008M07 2008M09 2008M11 2009M01 2009M03 2009M05 2009M07 2009M09 2009M11 2010M01 2010M03 2010M05 2010M07 2010M09 2010M11 2011M01 2011M03 2011M05 2011M07 2011M09 2011M11 2012M01 2012M03 2012M05 2012M07 2012M09 2012M11

Lehman Brothers

Developing Country Sovereign Bond Spread, basis points

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40 45 50 55 60 Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12

Euro Area Other Developing China Other High-income Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), points

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Purchasing manager’s indexes point to continued weak activity (recession in Europe)

Source: World Bank, Markit/Haver Analytics.

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  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25 Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12

Euro Area China Other Other high-Income Develop Developing ng

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There is some (modest) indication of a pick up in economic activity: Industrial production

Industrial production, percent growth, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group.

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Precarious: Developing countries remain vulnerable to US “Fiscal Cliff”

  • 3,5
  • 3,0
  • 2,5
  • 2,0
  • 1,5
  • 1,0
  • 0,5

0,0

Oil exporters East Asia Latin America Developing Sub‐Saharan Africa Europe and Central Asia South Asia Middle‐east and North Africa

Source : World Bank DEC Prospects

Impact of full US fiscal cliff on selected economies

(percentage point decline in GDP from 2013 baseline projections)

USA

Note: Preliminary estimates subject to revision.

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Resurgence of internationally‐traded food prices threatens poverty ahead

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Source: DEC Prospects Group, World Bank

80 180 280 380 480 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12

Ma Maize Wh Wheat Ri Rice (M (Monthly)

USD dollar price of internationally traded grains, index 2005=100