HAS THE MARKET BOTTOMED OUT? 2 PCL market, price falls easing - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HAS THE MARKET BOTTOMED OUT? 2 PCL market, price falls easing - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 22, 2023 233 likes •379 views

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON HAS THE MARKET BOTTOMED OUT? 2 PCL market, price falls easing Prices Q417 down 0.5% Q3 2017, compared to a fall of -3.2% at the start of the year Current prices (1,495) are -4.1% below Q4 2014 Price falls

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SLIDE 1

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON

HAS THE MARKET BOTTOMED OUT?

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SLIDE 2

PCL market, price falls easing

Œ Prices Q417 down 0.5% Q3 2017, compared to a fall of -3.2% at the start of the year  Current prices (£1,495) are -4.1% below Q4 2014 Ž Price falls considerably lower than during GFC – 18.0% fall

Source: dataloft/LonRes

400 £400 200 £200 £0

2010

2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2015

600 £600 800 £800 1000 £1,000 1200 £1,200 1400 £1,400 £1,600 £1,800 No of sales Average £psf

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SLIDE 3

Volumes up for fjrst time since 2013

Œ PCL sales up 2.3% in 2017, fjrst rise in four years  Uptick in high end sales during fjnal quarter

Source: dataloft/LonRes

  • 20%
  • 30%
  • 40%

3

LESS THAN £1 MILLION £1–£3 MILLION £3–£5 MILLION £5 MILLION + ALL MARKET

  • 10%

0% 10% 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual % change

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SLIDE 4

Q115 Q316 Q415 Q217 Q215 Q416 Q116 Q317 Q417 Q315 Q117 Q216

High end sales bolster the market

Œ 1 in 10 properties sold across PCL in Q4 2017 +£5 million  Highest proportion since peak of the market pre SDLT changes Q4 2014 (11.1%)

Source: dataloft/LonRes

50 80 40 70 30 60 20 10

4

£5–£10 million £10 million +

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SLIDE 5

Price reductions at all time high

5

Œ Nearly 9 in every 10 properties reduced prior to sale in Q4 2017  % of market reduced same level as in the midst of the GFC

Q4 2008

87.6%

Q4 2013

58.9%

Q4 2014

76.1%

Q4 2015

80.3%

Q4 2016

83.4%

Q4 2017

87.7%

% properties price reduction

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SLIDE 6

But more realistic pricing

6

Œ Average 10.3% discount on initial asking price compared to 13.2% in Q4 2008  Average reduction in price during Q4 2017: £359,009

Q4 2008

13.2% 2.3% 6.3% 8.8% 9.7% 10.3%

Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017

% discount on asking price

£359,009

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SLIDE 7

The winners and the losers

Œ No clear market across PCL – winners and losers during 2017  Stalwarts of Mayfair and Knightsbridge remain safe havens Ž Newer prime areas Marylebone and Paddington also held their own  2017 particularly trying for Notting Hill and Kensington / South Kensington

Source: dataloft/LonRes

0%

  • 10%
  • 20%

7

M A R Y L E B O N E K N I G H T S B R I D G E P A D D I N G T O N M A Y F A I R H O L L A N D P A R K C H E L S E A S O U T H K E N S I N G T O N K E N S I N G T O N S T J O H N S W O O D N O T T I N G H I L L

10% 20% 30% 40% Sales Prices Annual % change

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SLIDE 8

Buying power of US$ diminishing

Œ Sterling fell to a low of 1.23 against the US$ in January 2017  Today value of sterling against US$ close to pre-referendum levels Ž Opportunities for double discounts close to an end

8

23 JUNE 2016 Exchange rate 1.48 1.21 1.42 $5 million £3,379,000 £4,144,000 £3,534,000 16 JANUARY 2017 23 MARCH 2018 DIFFERENCE

Source: dataloft/Bank of England

£765,000 23% £155,000 5%

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SLIDE 9

The London Plan

9

Strategic plan for development of London over next 20–25 years Build 650,000 new homes across London by 2029, equivalent to 60,000 new homes each year 10 year housing targets for each borough Target 50% of London to be green by 2050, plus commitment to the Green Belt Target 80% of all journeys across the capital to be car free Plan set to be formally adopted in Autumn 2019

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SLIDE 10

National Planning Policy Framework

10

Prime Minister announced fjrst revisions in six years Follow on from housing white paper published February 2017 Accelerate house building Speed up development – reduce time between consent and construction (from 3 to 2 years) Higher density housing and build upwards Requirement 20% of housing sites to be half a hectare or less

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SLIDE 11

Current market themes

11

Monthly price falls easing Price reductions commonplace UK economy proving resilient

  • Higher growth
  • London remains No. 1 Global Financial Centre
  • Falling infmation

Interest rate rises anticipated May and November More stability over Brexit – agreement on large part of Brexit transition period that will last until end of 2020 Stamp duty set to remain Increase in private renting and institutional Build to Rent specialists Core market muted, more activity in prime price brackets

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SLIDE 12

Recent sales

12

HIDDEN HOUSE

LONSDALE RD

CRESSWELL HOUSE

  • On the market for £22,000,000
  • Three bidders
  • Sold for £25,000,000 to a

bitcoin billionaire

  • Was on the market for £35,000,000
  • Receivers appointed: price reduced

to £21,500,000

  • 22 viewings within a week. Sold for

above guide price

Knight Frank Notting Hill 020 7229 0229 nottinghill@knightfrank.com 294 Westbourne Grove London W11 2PS

Hidden House, 44 Lonsdale Road, London W11 2DE

This truly sensational new build house offers the ultimate in modern and lateral living. Meticulous attention to detail and flawless design - beyond words. Arranged over 6 floors this sensational and meticulously developed house provides a real sense of scale maximising volume and contemporary
  • excellence. The development and design of the interior is superb. The house is set by entering into an impressive entrance off which is a remarkable
kitchen/dining area and study with a glorious view of the beautifully designed garden embedded with flowerbeds and water features highlighted by the floor lights. There is a glorious reception room with a feature fireplace on this floor at the rear of the property leading onto the south facing terrace. On the first floor is the master bedroom with an en suite bathroom and dressing room overlooking the garden through its miraculous glass wall. The further 3 impressive bedrooms with en suite bathrooms/shower rooms are also located on this floor and there is a family bathroom and utility room. The guest bedroom is on the second floor with an en suite bathroom. At the lower level basement is the exceptionally generous swimming pool, stylish media room, courtyard and ultimate wellness facilities including a shower room and raised basement up to the modern gymnasium. There is a sub-basement comprising a plant room and large wine store. This is the ultimate dream Notting Hill home. : This modern masterpiece tucked away behind fashionable Westbourne Grove on Lonsdale Road, in the very heart of cosmopolitan Notting Hill. It is located just off the world renowned Portobello Road and the ever fashionable Westbourne Grove with its designer shops, exclusive restaurants and cafe culture. Well positioned for all local transport communications
  • Notting Hill underground station is within walking distance (Central, Circle & District lines).
£22,000,000 Freehold C R E S S W E L L H O U S E 1 5
  • 1. 2.
  • 3. 4.

Important Notice Particulars: These particulars are not an offer or contract, nor part of one. You should not rely on statements by Knight Frank LLP in the particulars or by word of mouth or in writing ("information") as being factually accurate about the property, its condition or its value. Neither Knight Frank LLP nor any joint agent has any authority to make any representations about the property, and accordingly any information given is entirely without responsibility on the part of the agents, seller(s) or lessor(s). Photos etc: The photographs show only certain parts of the property as they appeared at the time they were taken. Areas, measurements and distances given are approximate only. Regulations etc: Any reference to alterations to, or use of, any part of the property does not mean that any necessary planning, building regulations or other consent has been

  • btained. A buyer or lessee must find out by inspection or in other ways that these matters have been properly dealt with and

that all information is correct. VAT: The VAT position relating to the property may change without notice.

  • 1. 2.
  • 3. 4.

Important Notice Particulars: These particulars are not an offer or contract, nor part of one. You should not rely on statements by Knight Frank LLP in the particulars or by word of mouth or in writing ("information") as being factually accurate about the property, its condition or its value. Neither Knight Frank LLP nor any joint agent has any authority to make any representations about the property, and accordingly any information given is entirely without responsibility on the part of the agents, seller(s) or lessor(s). Photos etc: The photographs show only certain parts of the property as they appeared at the time they were taken. Areas, measurements and distances given are approximate only. Regulations etc: Any reference to alterations to, or use of, any part of the property does not mean that any necessary planning, building regulations or other consent has been

  • btained. A buyer or lessee must find out by inspection or in other ways that these matters have been properly dealt with and

that all information is correct. VAT: The VAT position relating to the property may change without notice.

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SLIDE 13

PCL = SW1, SW3, SW7, SW10, NW1, NW3, NW8, W1, W2, W8, W9, W11, W14 DATA SOURCE: LONRES, Sales to end of February 2018

Recent sales

13

QUEENSDALE PLACE

NOTTING HILL

  • On the market for £22,000,000
  • Contract agreed for £18,000,000
  • Secondary bidder came in the day after an

exclusivity agreement expired and exchanged contracts at £20,000,000 within 9 hours