Higher Education Policy Institute Events UKs only HE think tank - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Higher Education Policy Institute

• UK’s only HE think tank
• Supported by most UK unis and

many corporates

• As a charity, strictly non-partisan

Politicians, civil servants, university managers, governors, the media etc

Intell Reports Events

About me

• HEPI Director since 2014
• Formerly Special Adviser to

the Minister for Universities

• Academic research on the

history of student finance

• Previously a History teacher

& ran a pre-university course

• Attended three universities

(Manc, Cambridge, QMW)

Keeping abreast of topical issues

• Coalition, majority & minority Govts
• Green paper, White paper, Bill & Act
• End of HEFCE / new Office for Students
• End of Offa / new DFAP
• Launch of UK Research & Investment
• Teaching Excellence Framework
• EU referendum
• Two Prime Ministers
• More intense media coverage
• Teaching policy from BIS to DfE
• BIS becomes BEIS
• Changes to student funding
• Changes to research funding
• Lots of Select Cttee investigations
• Pensions strike
• Migration Advisory Cttee review
• ONS review of classification of loans
• Augar

Just since 2015, the busiest ever time for HE policy?

2016

Source: The Daily Telegraph

Everything in flux: 5 Ministers in 5 years

Oxford, PPE Oxford, PPE Oxford, History Cambridge, Economics Oxford, History

Best option would be to re-set the dial by sharing policy responsibility for migration, especially student migration across Whitehall

Non-UK students coming here to study after Brexit

Cluster 1 (2 institutions) Cluster 2 (39 institutions) Cluster 3 (67 institutions) Cluster 4 (17 institutions) Total (125 institutions) Average change in students (per institution) and total students affected (total column) EU (402) (-37%) (467) (-68%) (162) (-48%) (83) (-42%) (31,290) (-57%) Non-EU

• Average change in fee income (per institution, in £m)

EU £5.8m (£0.6m) (£0.3m) (£0.3m) (£0.3m) Non-EU

• Total change in fee income (per cluster, in £m)

EU £11.6m (£23.1m) (£23.2m) (£4.8m) (£39.5m) Non-EU

• Total

£11.6m (£23.1m) (£23.2m) (£4.8m) (£39.5m)

2 institutions (Oxford & Cambridge)

Cluster 1

39 institutions (mainly pre-1992; Russell Group and/or former 1994 Group, and unaffiliated) 67 institutions (former 1994 Group, University Alliance, Million+, Guild HE and unaffiliated) 17 institutions (mainly post-1992; University Alliance, Million+, Guild HE and unaffiliated)

Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4

Cluster 1 (2 institutions) Cluster 2 (39 institutions) Cluster 3 (67 institutions) Cluster 4 (17 institutions) Total (125 institutions) Average change in students (per institution) and total students affected (total column) EU 123 (11%) 72 (11%) 30 (9%) 11 (5%) 5,282 (10%) Non-EU 241 (11%) 224 (9%) 75 (8%) 12 (4%) 14,455 (9%) Average change in fee income (per institution, in £m) EU £0.8m £0.4m £0.2m £0.1m £0.3m Non-EU £4.5m £3.5m £0.7m £0.1m £1.5m Total change in fee income (per cluster, in £m) EU £1.5m £17.1m £12m £1.1m £31.7m Non-EU £8.9m £135m £49.1m £ 1.8m £194.8m Total £10.4m £152.1m £61.1m £2.8m £226.4m

Cluster 1 (2 institutions) Cluster 2 (39 institutions) Cluster 3 (67 institutions) Cluster 4 (17 institutions) Total (125 institutions) Average change in students (per institution) and total students affected (total column) EU (280) (-26%) (394) (-57%) (132) (-39%) (73) (-36%) (26,008) (-47%) Non-EU 241 (11%) 224 (9%) 75 (8%) 12 (4%) 14,455 (9%) Average change in fee income (per institution, in £m) EU £6.6m (£0.2m) (£0.2m) (£0.2m) (£0.1m) Non-EU £4.5m £3.5m £0.7m £0.1m £1.5m Total change in fee income (per cluster, in £m) EU £13.2m (£6.1m) (£11.2m) (£3.7m) (£7.9m) Non-EU £8.9m £135m £49.1m £1.8m £194.8m Total £22.1m £128.9m £37.9m (£1.9m) £186.9m

Benefits

Fees Non-fee Visitors TOTAL EU overall £1.7 billion £3.2 billion £0.2 billion £5.1 billion EU per student £29k £55k £3k £87k Non-EU overall £9.0 billion £8.1 billion £0.4 billion £17.5 billion Non-EU per student £52k £47k £2k £102k TOTAL £10.7 billion £11.3 billion £0.6 billion

£22.6 billion

Costs

Grants Student support Other TOTAL EU overall £0.1 billion £0.1 billion £0.9 billion £5.1 billion EU per student £2k £2k £15k £19k Non-EU overall £0.0 billion £0.0 billion £1.2 billion £17.5 billion Non-EU per student £0k £0k £7k £7k TOTAL £0.1 billion £0.1 billion £2.1 billion

£2.3 billion

Net

Fees vs grants Non-fee vs £ support Visitors vs

• ther costs

TOTAL EU overall £1.6 billion £3.1 billion

• £0.7 billion

£4.0 billion EU per student £27k £53k

• £12k

£68k Non-EU overall £9.0 billion £8.1 billion

• £0.8 billion

£16.3 billion Non-EU per student £52k £47k

• £5k

£95k TOTAL £10.6 billion £11.2 billion

• £1.5 billion

£20.3 billion

Maidenhead £14.7m Witney £13.4m Islington N £62.5m Sheff C £226.0 m

South West Surrey: £21.9 million

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: £93.8 million

2019: Post-study work rights

Post-study work restrictions announced

Tax type £ per graduate Total benefits, £m EU Non-EU Average EU Non-EU Total Income Tax £36,000 £34,000 £35,000 £388m £655m £1,043m Employee NICs £24,000 £23,000 £24,000 £266m £449m £716m Employer NICs £28,000 £27,000 £27,000 £306m £516m £822m VAT £20,000 £20,000 £20,000 £220m £372m £592m Total £108,000 £104,000 £106,000 £1,181m £1,992m £3,173m

Note: Average values per graduate are rounded to the nearest £1,000 and are weighted by the respective total number of graduates in UK employment over the 10-year period post-

• graduation. Total values are rounded to the nearest £1m. All estimates are presented in 2016/17 prices and discounted to net present values. Totals may not add up due to rounding.

Source: London Economics’ analysis

What are the post-graduation labour market benefits generated by international students?

• In regulated labour markets

(Health/Education), we would expect to see limited differences in the earnings between the different graduates.

• In more deregulated markets, wage

gaps can emerge, and we would expect these gaps to widen where skills shortage are greatest.

• We assume that graduates enter
• ccupations that are linked to their

degree subject area – though we know that this is not always true.

£15,000 £25,000 £35,000 £45,000 £55,000 £65,000 £75,000 UK EU Non-EU

Medicine Nursing Education Maths ICT Economics Median earnings of graduates with undergraduate degrees five years after graduation (in 2015/16), by domicile and subject studied

How do international and UK graduates’ earnings compare – by subject?

• The red ‘triangle’ illustrates the impact of the post-study work visa

restrictions – i.e. we assessed what might be the total Exchequer contribution made by international graduates if the proportion of non- EU graduates entering the UK labour market one and three years post- graduation had remained stable (at 14%, same as 5 years post- graduation).

• Labour market participation would be at least 5 percentage points

higher one year post graduation and 4 percentage points higher three years post graduation …. all of which has resulted in lost Exchequer income.

• This loss was estimated to be £150 million per cohort

What was the impact of the change in post-study work visa arrangements?

26

28% 28% 28% 27% 25% 24% 22% 21% 19% 18% 9% 9% 10% 12% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years after graduation EU Non-EU

% of international graduates with UG degrees in sustained UK employment – by year post-graduation and domicile

New target of £35 billion education exports by 2030, with 600k international HE students, by 2035.

• Less ambitious than

previous target

• Slower growth than in
• ther countries
• But faster growth than

current trajectory

16 17 17 18 19 19 20 19 21 24 26 28 30 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 34 35

10 15 20 25 30 35

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Value of educational exports (£billion)

Actual Planned in 2015 Planned now

Responding to the International Education Strategy

• 1. The welcome new targets will be missed

without new policies – especially a competitive post-study work offer

• 2. Home Office must share responsibility

for student migration with other Government Departments, as elsewhere

• 3. The net migration target should be put
• ut of its misery

• 14,000+ full-time undergraduates
• Running since 2006
• HEPI / Advance HE / YouthSight project
• Continuity and change:
• Best data on vfm, workload, wellbeing
• New questions this year on 2-year degrees,

disclosure & preparedness

The Student Academic Experience Survey

Impr provem emen ent i t in n value f e for the e sec econd nd y yea ear r run unning

44% 53% 50% 44% 40%

37%

35% 38% 41% 22% 18% 21% 26% 29% 32% 34% 32% 29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Value-for-money of your present course Good / Very Good Poor / Very Poor

Inc ncoming s studen ents s ts see ee vfm fall i in n rec ecen ent y yea ears

60% 63% 48% 47% 47% 44% 35% 39% 36% 38% 37% 37%

25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Value-for-money – by home nation

Scotland Wales EU England Northern Ireland Non-EU

One final thought

One final thought