How governments and companies are adapting to the longevity economy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
How governments and companies are adapting to the longevity economy Paras Anand Head of Asset Management Asia Pacific Fidelity International Governments are in office but not in power 499,800,417 People voted this year 75 National
How governments and companies are adapting to the longevity economy
Paras Anand
Head of Asset Management Asia Pacific Fidelity International
Governments are in office but not in power
Source: Election Guide, 2019
People voted this year
National elections held this year
The changing face of global consumption
Source: RHS: Brookings Institution, the Unprecedented Expansion of the Global Middle Class, February 2017. LHS: Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The Silver Dollar-Longevity Revolution Primer, June 2014, Euromonitor, Oxford Economics, NLIRI. The longevity economy encompasses both the economic activity that serves the needs of the 50+ global population, as well as directly purchased products and services and the knock-on economic activity that generates
will come from the grey economy by the 2030s.
Spending power of 60+ age group by 2020.
in new consumer spending by an emerging Asian middle class by 2030.
Source: Bloomberg, October 2019.
Central Bank Balance Sheets
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 Balance Sheet Assets $USbn ECB Fed BOJ Oct-19
Source: INNOSIGHT/Richard N. Foster/Standard & Poor’ Each data point represents a rolling seven-year average of average lifespan. Source: INNOSIGHT/Richard N. Foster/Standard & Poor’s, Fidelity International. Long-term chart constructed on the basis of Innosight Winter 2012 and Spring 2016 Executive Briefings.s.
Average company lifespan is decreasing
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Duration may become the single biggest factor in determining valuation
Projections based on current data
In the short-term the markets are a voting machine…but in the long-term markets are a weighing machine (thanks Ben Graham!)
Short-term vs long-term goals
Short Term
Ageing population Collective to national interest Climate change Political Instability Divided Societies Low real wage growth Tech disruption News
Long Term
Are we really enhancing artificial intelligence?
Do we need to reconsider the role of governments in society?
Does the corporate sector have a bigger role to play?
The importance of normalising monetary policy
We need a different economic strategy
Source: Goldman Sachs 2019
Tax cuts have no lasting impact
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012 2022
Top US tax bracket marginal tax rate US corporate income tax statutory rate
(including federal and local)
Evolution of corporate & individual top bracket taxation in the US
Source: World Bank Group via Bloomberg, net migration calculated as total number of immigrants less annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens. Data as at 31st December 2017 (latest data available).
Net migration
500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 01-01-67 01-01-69 01-01-71 01-01-73 01-01-75 01-01-77 01-01-79 01-01-81 01-01-83 01-01-85 01-01-87 01-01-89 01-01-91 01-01-93 01-01-95 01-01-97 01-01-99 01-01-01 01-01-03 01-01-05 01-01-07 01-01-09 01-01-11 01-01-13 01-01-15 01-01-17 Net migration - Japan Net migration - Germany
Asset managers have a big role to play
Important information
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