Integrated Resources Plan Special Committee Item 6a July 28, 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Integrated Resources Plan Special Committee Item 6a July 28, 2020

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 2 July 28, 2020

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 3 July 28, 2020

2015 IRP (and previous IRPs) identified resource development needs under fixed assumptions and hydrologic uncertainty SCAG/SANDAG demographic forecasts SWP and CRA under specified operational and regulatory conditions Local Supplies from MA survey Hydrology/Climate based on 1922-2012 historical sample (no climate change) Resource portfolios identified to cover the gaps

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 4 July 28, 2020

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 5 July 28, 2020

17 18 19 20 21 22

1996 IRP 2004 IRP 2010 IRP 2015 IRP 2018 Reported Population

Millions Metropolitan Service Area

Population not growing as quickly as expected

(Population Projections from SCAG/SANDAG)

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 6 July 28, 2020

Create four scenarios to provide a wider view of the future Conduct four gap analyses Identify resource portfolios that cover the four gap analyses Guide decision-making under a more comprehensive adaptive management strategy using information gleaned from the scenarios Single scenario approach limits awareness of potential risks and needs

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 7 July 28, 2020

Process Recap Qualitative – Quantitative Assessment Linking the Drivers to supply/demand impacts Collaborative Process

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 8 July 28, 2020 Review Performance Measures for Each Portfolio and Scenario Develop Drivers of Change (Uncontrollable) Draft Adaptive Management Strategy Establish Scenario Framework Develop Test Portfolios (Combinations

• f Options)

Prepare Detailed Narratives Identify Relationships and Quantitative Assumptions

1 2 4

e.g. ESA restrictions in the Delta, Recession, Others e.g. Delta Conveyance, Regional Recycled Water, Conservation Initiatives, Others

#

= Process Steps

Test Portfolio Performance Under the Scenario Assumptions

3

Policy

Iterative Modeling and Policy Discussion

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 9 July 28, 2020 Review Performance Measures for Each Portfolio and Scenario Develop Drivers of Change (Uncontrollable) Draft Adaptive Management Strategy Establish Scenario Framework Develop Test Portfolios (Combinations

• f Options)

Prepare Detailed Narratives Identify Relationships and Quantitative Assumptions

1 2 4

e.g. ESA restrictions in the Delta, Recession, Others e.g. Delta Conveyance, Regional Recycled Water, Conservation Initiatives, Others

#

= Process Steps

Test Portfolio Performance Under the Scenario Assumptions

3

Policy

Iterative Modeling and Policy Discussion

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 10 July 28, 2020

Scenario planning allows the IRP to continue Metropolitan’s strategy for navigating the challenges facing our water future The IRP provides the vision for adaptively managing through the change that is coming IRP Goal:

Regional Water Reliability

How do we measure reliability?

Evaluating whether or not we have enough water to meet demands

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 11 July 28, 2020

Retail MI Demand 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Million Acre-Feet

1996 IRP 2004 IRP 2010 IRP 2015 IRP

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 12 July 28, 2020

Retail MI Demand Scenario Forecast

A B C D

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Million Acre-Feet

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 13 July 28, 2020

A Broad View Will Better Prepare us for the Future

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 14 July 28, 2020

High High Low Low Importance Uncertainty

How Do We Get a Broad View?

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 15 July 28, 2020

High High Low Low Importance Uncertainty Less important drivers with varying levels of predictability

Drivers that are most impactful to supply and demand

Important drivers that are predictable

Identifying the most impactful Drivers

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 16 July 28, 2020

Inclusive Process with Member Agency Feedback

Scale

Supply/Demand IMPACT

• n

Supply/Demand

Qualitative/ Quantitative Assessment

UNCERTAINTY IMPORTANCE

Survey

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 17 July 28, 2020

CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS - QUALITATIVE/ QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 18 July 28, 2020

Examine and organize the drivers Determine supply and demand links to the drivers Identify methods and tools to quantify the links to the drivers Identify data and input needs Open and iterative process

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 19 July 28, 2020

• Which drivers are quantifiable
• How can we quantify?
• Calculate with existing models, OR
• Approximate where models are

not available or not flexible

• Relates with geographic location

Supply – Demand Links

Purpose of drivers is to recognize outside factors that affect supply and/or demand IRP analysis makes explicit how these drivers affect supply/demand by assessing Supply-Demand Links

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 20 July 28, 2020

Change to Reflect:

• Economic Outlook
• Demographic Changes
• Climate Outcomes
• Outdoor Water Use

Change to Reflect:

• Behavioral Change
• Response to Price
• Regulatory Outlook
• Operational Requirements
• System Changes

Outcomes Reflect:

• Demand Impacts
• Supply Impacts

INPUT OUTPUT Model Parameters

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 21 July 28, 2020

Initial Screening: Supply–Demand Links

For each “Yes”

How does it affect supply/demand? What is the scale of the effect? Can we quantify the effect?

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 22 July 28, 2020

EXAMPLES

9

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 23 July 28, 2020

Demographic Changes - Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections Climate Change – Warming Temperatures Legislative and Regulatory – Emerging Regulatory Requirements

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 24 July 28, 2020

Example 1:

CATEGORY

Demographic Changes

DRIVER

Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections

LINK

Changes in Occupied Households

Impacts on Supply/ Demand MWD Service Area

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 25 July 28, 2020

Example 1:

CATEGORY

Demographic Changes

DRIVER

Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections

LINK

Changes in Occupied Households

Impacts on Supply/ Demand MWD Service Area

Does this driver affect supply? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the supply effect? N/A

SUPPLY

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 26 July 28, 2020

Example 1:

CATEGORY

Demographic Changes

DRIVER

Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections

LINK

Changes in Occupied Households

Impacts on Supply/ Demand MWD Service Area

Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A

REPLENISHMENT DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 27 July 28, 2020

Example 1:

CATEGORY

Demographic Changes

DRIVER

Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections

LINK

Changes in Occupied Households

Impacts on Supply/ Demand MWD Service Area

Does this driver affect demand? YES What is the scale of effect? Large Can you quantify the demand effect? YES

CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 28 July 28, 2020

Example 1:

CATEGORY

Demographic Changes

DRIVER

Uncertainty Regarding Population Projections

LINK

Changes in Occupied Households

Impacts on Supply/ Demand MWD Service Area

How does it affect demand? What is the Scale Effect? How can you quantify the demand effect? Changes in number of households Large Econometric model Changes in number of people per household Large Econometric model

CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 29 July 28, 2020

Example 1:

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Million Acre-Feet

Retail M&I Demand

10% Less Households 2015 IRP 10% More Households

A 10% change in households and their occupants result in a 10% change in retail demand (all other changes held constant).

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 30 July 28, 2020

Example 2:

CATEGORY

Climate Change

DRIVER

Warming Temperatures

LINK

Changing Runoff Patterns

Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A Impacts on Supply/ Demand SWP

Watershed

CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 31 July 28, 2020

Example 2:

Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A Impacts on Supply/ Demand CATEGORY

Climate Change

DRIVER

Warming Temperatures

LINK

Changing Runoff Patterns

SWP

Watershed

REPLENISHMENT DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 32 July 28, 2020

Example 2:

Does this driver affect supply? YES What is the scale of effect? Large Can you quantify the supply effect? YES Impacts on Supply/ Demand CATEGORY

Climate Change

DRIVER

Warming Temperatures

LINK

Changing Runoff Patterns

SWP

Watershed

SUPPLY

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 33 July 28, 2020

Example 2:

Impacts on Supply/ Demand

How does it affect supply? What is the Scale Effect? How can you quantify the supply effect? Changes in Delta inflow Large CalSIM model Changes in regulatory needs Small CalSIM model

CATEGORY

Climate Change

DRIVER

Warming Temperatures

LINK

Changing Runoff Patterns

SWP

Watershed

SUPPLY

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 34 July 28, 2020

Example 2

Wang & co-workers (2018). Mean and Extreme Climate Impacts on the State Water Project. Department of Water Resources

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 35 July 28, 2020

Example 3:

CATEGORY

Legislative and Regulatory

DRIVER

Emerging Regulatory Requirements

LINK

Emerging Contaminants Regulations

Impacts on Supply/ Demand MWD Service Area Does this driver affect demand? NO What is the scale of effect? N/A Can you quantify the demand effect? N/A CONSUMPTIVE DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 36 July 28, 2020

Example 3:

Impacts on Supply/ Demand Does this driver affect supply? YES What is the scale of effect? Large Can you quantify the supply effect? YES CATEGORY

Legislative and Regulatory

DRIVER

Emerging Regulatory Requirements

LINK

Emerging Contaminants Regulations

MWD Service Area SUPPLY

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 37 July 28, 2020

Example 3:

Impacts on Supply/ Demand

How does it affect supply? What is the Scale Effect? How can you quantify the supply effect? Loss of groundwater production without additional treatment Large Estimate by monitoring data

CATEGORY

Legislative and Regulatory

DRIVER

Emerging Regulatory Requirements

LINK

Emerging Contaminants Regulations

MWD Service Area SUPPLY

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 38 July 28, 2020

Example 3:

Total Groundwater Production (MWD Service Area 2019)

1.06 MAF

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 39 July 28, 2020

Example 3: Possible Groundwater Production Impact PFOA and PFOS detections (SWRCB, 2020)

Need coordination with agencies to estimate possible impacts

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 40 July 28, 2020

Example 3:

Impacts on Supply/ Demand Does this driver affect demand? YES What is the scale of effect? Small Can you quantify the demand effect? NO CATEGORY

Legislative and Regulatory

DRIVER

Emerging Regulatory Requirements

LINK

Emerging Contaminants Regulations

MWD Service Area REPLENISHMENT DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 41 July 28, 2020

Example 3:

Impacts on Supply/ Demand

How does it affect demand? What is the Scale Effect? How can you quantify the demand effect? Changes in replenishment needs/quantity Small N/A

CATEGORY

Legislative and Regulatory

DRIVER

Emerging Regulatory Requirements

LINK

Emerging Contaminants Regulations

MWD Service Area REPLENISHMENT DEMAND

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 42 July 28, 2020

Sending a detailed spreadsheet to review potential impacts to supply/demand Help identify modeling tools to better quantify local impacts Help with assumptions to approximate impacts where quantification is difficult Identify and provide data

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 43 July 28, 2020

Steps May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• 2. Construct Scenarios

2.1 Qualitative Assessment 2.2 Quantitative Assessment 2.3 Scenario Framework 2.4 Scenario Narratives 2.4 Supply/Demand Gap calc.

• 3. Policy Iteration

2020

= Metropolitan Board, Member Agency Input and Review Throughout the Process (examples only)

Additional iterations if needed

IRP Committee Item 6a Slide 44 July 28, 2020

Construct scenarios Continue qualitative and quantitative assessment of drivers Collaboratively identify scenarios helpful for policy discussions August meeting Review current conditions Discuss purpose and use of IRP Present a scenario and gap analysis for discussion