Introduction GIS and RS for Introduction GIS and RS for risk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Introduction GIS and RS for Introduction GIS and RS for risk assessment risk assessment

Cees van Westen & Mark van der Meijde Department Earth Systems Analysis, ITC Enschede, Netherlands

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Disaster management cycle

• disaster prevention
• disaster preparedness
• disaster relief
• Rehabilitation
• Reconstruction

Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?

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Key elements of Disaster Management Key elements of Disaster Management

Pre-disaster phases Post-disaster phases

Risk Identification Mitigation Risk Transfer Preparedness Emergency response Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Hazard Assessment Physical/structur al mitigation works Insurance/ reinsurance Early warning systems. Communication systems Humanitarian assistance / rescue Rehabilitation/re construction of damaged critical infrastructure Vulnerability assessment Land-use planning and building codes Financial market instruments Monitoring and forecasting Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services Macroeconomic and budget management Risk Assessment Economic incentives Privatization of public services with safety regulations Shelter facilities Emergency planning Damage assessment Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism) GIS mapping and scenario building Education, training and awareness Calamity funds Contingency planning (utility companies / public services) Mobilization of recovery resources Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction

• Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID

Risk assessment is central in the entire process of Disaster Management

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Risk Risk

• Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due

to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact.

• ADPC
• Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards

literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind

• f impact occurring

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Losses Losses

• Disaster losses include the direct

impacts like the loss of life, housing and infrastructure as well as indirect impacts on production in utility services, transport, labor supplies, suppliers and markets. Secondary losses include impacts on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, balance of payments, public spending and inflation. The impacts are felt more by developing countries.

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TYPES OF LOSSES TYPES OF LOSSES

Primary Effect Secondary Effect

Human - social

Physical Economic

• Fatalities
• Injuries
• Loss of income or

employment opportunities

• Homelessness
• Disease
• Permanent disability
• Psychological impact
• Loss of social cohesion due

to disruption of community

• Political unrest (govt.

response is perceived as inadequate)

• Ground deformation
• r loss of ground

quality

• Structural damage or

collapse to buildings and infrastructure

• Non-structural

damage and damage to contents

• Progressive

deterioration of damaged buildings and infrastructure which are not repaired

• Interruption of business

due to damage to buildings and infrastructure

• Loss of productive

workforce through fatalities, injuries and relief efforts

• Capital costs of response

and relief

• Losses borne by the

insurance industry weakening the insurance market and increasing premiums

• Loss of markets and trade
• pportunities through short-

term business interruption

• Loss of confidence by

investors, withdrawal of investment

• Capital costs of repair

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RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

The most complicated simple formula The most complicated simple formula Hazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude

• Triggering mechanism
• Type of event
• Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration,

speed etc

Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:

• magnitude of event, and
• type of elements at risk

Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.

• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.
• Loss of function or economic activities
• Number of people

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Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk

• Natural hazard (H):

the probability of occurrence

• f a potentially damaging phenomenon within a

specified period of time and within a given area.

• Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element
• r set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the
• ccurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given
• magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no

damage) to 1 (total loss).

• Elements at risk the population, properties, economic

activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.

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Specific and total risk Specific and total risk

• Specific risk (Rs):

the expected degree of loss due to a particular natural phenomenon. It may be expressed by the product of H, V and costs C. Rs = H * V * C

• Total risk (Rt): the expected number of lives lost,

persons injured, damage to property, or disruption of economic activity due to a all natural phenomena. It is therefore the sum of the specific risks for all return periods and all types of events. SUM( Rs = H * V * C) For all elements at risk For all magnitudes For all hazard types

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT Hazard= PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:

• magnitude of event, and
• type of elements at risk

Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.

• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.
• Loss of function or economic activities
• Number of people

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RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY CAPACITY

Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Capacity = expresses the positive managerial and

• perational resources and procedures for

reducing risk factors

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

• Example:

10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Hazard

= probability within a given period = 0.1 / year

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * 1 *50.000 = 5.000 US $

V = V = 1

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

• Example:

10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * ( (0.5*200.000)+ (0.1*100.000)+ (1 * 50.000)) = 0.1 * 160.000 = 16.000 $

V = V = 1 V = V = 0.1 US $ 100.0 $ 100.000 US $ 200.0 $ 200.000 V = V = 0.5

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

• Example:

2 y 2 year ears R RP 10 y 10 year ears R RP 50 y 50 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Hazard = 0.5 * 0.01 * 50.000 +

0.1 * 0.1 * 50.000 + 0.02 * 1 * 50.000 = = 250 + 500 + 1000 = 1750 US $

V = = 0.01 0.01 V = V = 0.1 V = V = 1 10000 10000 1 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1000 1000 Ri Risk c sk curve rve

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Elements at risk Vulnerability Consequence Probability

• f failure

For all credible hazards

=

N i i i i

V E P Risk

) ( ) ( ) (

∑

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In reality In reality

• Example:

RP RP = = ?? ?? Pr Price is ice is ? ???

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = ? * ? * ? = unknown What is needed: hazard assessment , elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, cost estimation.

V = = ???? ???? Depth = th = ???? ????

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Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Amount Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Amount

• Very complicated topic

2 y 2 year ears R RP 10 y 10 year ears R RP 50 y 50 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 V = = 0.01 0.01 V = V = 0.1 V = V = 1 10000 10000 1 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1000 1000 Ri Risk c sk curve rve

In practice this is very complicated:

• Quantifying probability
• Mapping all elements at risk
• Quantifying vulnerability
• Multi-hazard risk assessment

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Risk is a spatial problem Risk is a spatial problem

• Hazard:

How much water when and where?

• Elements at risk:

Which elements where, and how many/much ?

• Vulnerability:

How much water where which elements at risk are?

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Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem

• Hazard assessment:

done by earth scientists, hydrologists, volcanologists, seismologists etc.

• Elements at risk:

done by geographers, urban planners, civil engineers

• Cost estimation:

done by economists

• Vulnerability:

done by structural engineers, civil engineers

• Risk assessment:

Done by GIS experts Vulnerability map Risk map Hazard map Cost information Elements at risk

Aerial photographs Satellite images GPS Statistical tables

Risk a asse ssessme ssment n needs s GIS GIS

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Risk assessment in basic form Risk assessment in basic form

Hazard footprint EaR footprint Risk footprint

Characteristics:

• Type of event
• Magnitude
• Speed

Characteristics:

• Type of EaR
• Vulnerability

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Information required Information required

• For hazard assessment
• Scientific studies/maps, long-term monitoring, historic
• reports on past incidence of hazards, in particular the
• location, frequency and severity of the events
• Understanding of factors influencing hazard occurrence
• For vulnerability assessment
• Hazard characteristics (from the hazard assessment)
• Characteristics of the element/system of interest:
• location/site, structural strength/quality, content exposure
• Environmental quality
• For risk assessment
• Same as for vulnerability assessment, plus specific damage
• / loss frequency estimates for elements at risk
• Specific hazard scenario

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Risk management Risk management

Risk management Risk control Risk assessment Risk evaluation Risk analysis Risk estimation Hazard identification Consequence analysis Frequency analysis Risk calculation Elements at risk Vulnerability

Treatment Mitigation Planning Measures Monitoring Tolerable risk Acceptable risk Client decision Type Magnitude Travel distance Rate of movement

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Risk concepts and definitions Risk concepts and definitions

• Risk estimation: the process used to produce a measure of the level of

health, property, or environmental risks being analysed. Risk estimation contains the followings steps: frequency analysis, consequence analysis and their integration.

• Risk analysis: the use of available information to estimate the risk to

individuals or populations, property, or the environment, from hazards. Risk analysis generally contains the following steps: scope definition, hazard identification, and risk estimation.

• Risk evaluation: the stage at which values and judgements enter the

decision process, explicitly or implicitly, by including consideration of the importance of the estimated risks and the associated social, environmental, and economic consequences, in order to identify a range

• f alternatives for managing the risks.
• Risk assessment: the process of risk analysis and risks evaluation.
• Risk control or risk treatment: the process of decision making for

managing risks, and the implementation, or enforcement of risk mitigation measures and the re-evaluation of its effectiveness from time to time, using the results of risk assessment as one input.

• Risk management: the complete process of risk assessment and risk

control (or risk treatment).

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Risk analysis Risk analysis

• The use of available information to estimate the risk to

individuals or populations, property or the environment, from hazards.

• Risk analyses generally contain the following steps:
• definition of scope,
• danger (threat) identification,
• estimation of probability of occurrence to estimate hazard,
• evaluation of the vulnerability of the element(s) at risk,
• consequence identification, and
• risk estimation.
• Qualitative risk analysis: An analysis which uses word

form, descriptive or numeric rating scales to describe the magnitude of potential consequences and the likelihood that those consequences will occur.

• Quantitative risk analysis: An analysis based on

numerical values of the probability, vulnerability and consequences, and resulting in a numerical value of the risk.

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Risk types Risk types

• Individual risk: the risk of fatality or injury to any identifiable

(named) individual who live within the zone impacted by the landslide; or follows a particular pattern of life that might subject him or her to the consequences of the landslide.

• Societal risk: the risk of multiple fatalities or injuries in society

as a whole: one where society would have to carry the burden of a landslide causing a number of deaths, injury, financial, environmental, and other losses.

• Acceptable risk: a risk for which, for the purpose of life or work,

we are prepared to accept as it is with no regard to its

• management. Society does not generally consider expenditure in

further reducing such risks justifiable.

• Tolerable risk: a risk that society is willing to live with so as to

secure certain net benefits in the confidence that it is being properly controlled, kept under review and further reduced as and when possible.

• E. Castellanos, Nov. 2004

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High resolution imagery for elements at High resolution imagery for elements at risk mapping risk mapping

Building stock

Landuse Nr people / time of day

Infrastructure High potential loss facilities

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Vulnerability Vulnerability

• Vulnerability (V):

the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).

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Quantitative definitions of Vulnerability Quantitative definitions of Vulnerability

“A community’s probability of suffering human or material damage if exposed to a hazard, according to the degree of fragility of its elements (infrastructure, livelihood, production activities,

• rganizational degree, early warning or alert systems,

political and institutional development, etc.) (Caballeros et al., 2000). Proba- bility of suffering damage “level of graveness up to which a community, a structure, a service or a geographic area can be affected or disturbed by the impact of a certain hazard” (Chardon and González, 2002). “the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a hazard. It is expressed on a scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (total loss)” (UNDRO, 1979). Degree

• f loss

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“the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards” (UN/ISDR, 2004). “predisposition, susceptibility or physical, economical, political or social feasibility of a community to be affected or of suffering damages in case a destabilizing phenomenon of natural or human origin occurs (Cardona, 2001b). “how easily the exposed people, physical objects and activities may be affected in the short or long term” (Davidson, 1997). “being prone to or susceptible to damage or injury” and redefined it as “the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard” (Blaikie et al., 1994). “propensity of things to be damaged by a hazard” (Coburn, 1994). ”internal risk factor of a subject or exposed system to a hazard, corresponds to its intrinsic predisposition to be affected or susceptible of suffering a loss” (Cardona, 1993). “to be susceptible of suffering damage and having difficulties recovering from it. Inflexibility

• r inability to adapt” (Maskrey, 1993).

“condition in which human settlements or buildings are in danger due to the proximity

• f a hazard, the quality of the building materials or both” (Cuny, 1983).

Inflexibility or inability to adapt” (Maskrey, 1993). “A community’s inability to absorb, through auto-adjustment, the effects of a certain change in its’ environment. Change inflexibility (Wilches-Chaux, 1988).

Qualitative definitions of Vulnerability Qualitative definitions of Vulnerability

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Loss estimation methods Loss estimation methods

• Freely available applications:
• RADIUS: Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban

Areas against Seismic Disasters (GeoHazards International, 1999)

• HAZUS-MH (FEMA, 2003)
• Adaptations of HAZUS to particular countries

e.g.Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)

AGSO Cities Project (Australia)

• Commercial or non-free applications:
• NHEMATIS (Canada)
• MRQuake, MRStorm and MRFlood (MunichRe)
• RiskLink-ALM, RiskLink-DLM, RiskBrowser and RMS-

DataWizard (RMS)

• CLASIC/2, CATRADER, CATMAP/2, AIRProfiler, ALERT

(AIR)

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Hazus Hazus MH MH

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RISK MODEL RISK MODEL

i.e. Earthquake (HAZUS) i.e. Earthquake (HAZUS)

• 8. Lifelines-

• 4. Ground Motion
• 4. Ground Failure

• 6. Essential and

• 12. Debris
• 10. Fire
• 15. Economic
• 14. Shelter
• 9. Inundation
• 11. HazMat
• 16. Indirect

• 7. Lifelines-

• 5. General

• 13. Casualities

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Hazus Hazus MH MH

• Windstorm module

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Hazus Hazus MH MH

• Flood

module

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Community Community-

• based approaches

based approaches

Profiles Mapping Transects Focus group discussions Livelihood/coping analysis Problem Tree Ranking

CVA

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Risk & vulnerability indexes Risk & vulnerability indexes

1) The World Bank Hotspots (hazard and vulnerability information) 2) UNDP Disaster Risk Index (DRI) http://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm 3) World Economic Forum Environmental Sustainability Indicators http://www.weforum .org/ pdf /Gcr/GCR_2003_2004/GCI_Chapter.pdf 4) International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) World Disaster Report http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2003/ 5) Asian Disaster Research Center Global Unique Disaster Identifier Number (GLIDE) http://glidenumber.net/ 6) Web-based VATA tool location information sponsored by the OAS, U.S. NOAA, and the Caribbean Development Bank (www.csc.noaa.gov /vata) 7 ) CRED - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.cred.be/

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The risk matrix The risk matrix

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Risk matrix Risk matrix

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Risk matrix Risk matrix

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• Case study: Lalitpur, Nepal

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Northern Stupa Teta Stupa Lagan Stupa Pulchok Stupa

Durbar Square

Population:163,000 Households: 35,000 22 wards Very old city Partners:

NSET LSMCO ICIMOD ADPC

Historic earthquakes in 1255, 1408, 1810, 1833, 1934, 1980 and 1988

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Building inventory Building inventory

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Homogeneous units Homogeneous units

• Homogeneous units are groups of buildings with more or

less similar characteristics that can be delineated from high-resolution satellite imagery, and that can be described in the field

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Resulting database Resulting database

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Elements at risk database Elements at risk database

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Risk assessment questionnaire Risk assessment questionnaire

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Earthquake loss estimation Methodology Earthquake loss estimation Methodology

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Subsurface database Subsurface database

• 185 deep boreholes (> 30 meters)
• 328 shallow boreholes (< 30 meters

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Soil response modeling Soil response modeling

Two different approaches:

1.

Generation of layer model, followed by soil response modeling

2.

Soil response modeling, based on borehole records, followed by interpolation

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General input parameters SHAKE General input parameters SHAKE2000 2000 software software

• Soil Profile
• Shear Wave Velocity
• Depth to Water table
• Material type
• Thickness
• Unit Weight
• Maximum Shear

Modulus

• Modulus reduction

curve

• Damping Curve
• Strong Motion data
• Acceleration values in

digital

• Peak acceleration
• Use of data for nearby

sites

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Input motions Input motions

• No strong motion data

available for Nepal

• Following strong motion

data was used:

• Chamoli earthquake, 1999,

Uttaranchal, India (M=7, R=50 km).

• For testing, also others

were used:

• Alaska earthquake of 1979

(M=7.3, R=72 km);

• California earthquake 1976

(M=7.2);

• Kobe earthquake of 1995 (M= 7.2,

R=43 km);

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Response spectra Response spectra

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Spectral acceleration maps Spectral acceleration maps

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Generation of Spectral Acceleration maps Generation of Spectral Acceleration maps

Comparison with previous work (JICA)

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Building loss estimation Building loss estimation

• Vulnerability curves

developed by IIT Roorkee, India, based on historical EQ damage

• Modified by NSET Nepal,

according to Nepalese building types

• Mapping of condition of

buildings to indicate range

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Population loss estimation Population loss estimation

• Daytime scenario

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Population loss estimation Population loss estimation

• Nighttime scenario

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Population Vulnerability Population Vulnerability for for Earthquake Loss Estimation Earthquake Loss Estimation using using Community Based Approach with GIS Community Based Approach with GIS

Thesis Assessment Board:

Chairman: Dr.Ir.R.V.Sliuzas External Examiner: Dr.Ir.D.J.M.Hilhorst Internal Examiner: Dr.Cees J.van Westen First Supervisor: Ir.M.J.G.Brussel Second Supervisor: Drs.Paul Hofstee MSc Candidate: Pratima Singh

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On foothills

• f Himalayas

City of Schools and Retirement Place of Bureaucrats

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BUILDINGS

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Case Case Study Study Ward Ward

Block

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Workshop Painting Competition

Risk and Resource Mapping exercise not carried out yet

UNDP’s efforts under UEVRP (part of DRMP)

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Probable damage to

Building types in case of Earthquake

• f VIII MMI

Physical Condition

• number of stories
• building detachment
• observed cracks
• observed condition of

walls

• shape of the building
• slope of the terrain

Recoded, Standardized, Summation

Community Identified Risky Buildings No Wall Stone in Mud Stone in Lime Brick in Mud Brick in Lime Brick in Cement Stone in Lime + Brick in Lime Stone in Lime + Others Brick in Lime + Brick in Cement

! Very High

High

Medium Low Ward Buildings Road

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Key Key Informers Informers

and and Respondents Respondents

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Population Indoors: House

9 83

37 68 90 98

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Impacts on People: Based upon Injury Severity Levels (1- 4)

04-05 hours 06-07 hours 08-09 hours 10-11 hours 13-14 hours 16-17 hours 19-20 hours 22-23 hours

∑

Hourly Presence of People =

∑

[Number of Shop in each building *2.0] +

∑

[Number of Schools * 90] +

∑

[Number of Other units * 2.8] [Number of Families residing in each building * 2.3] +