Introduction to Energy Indicators Introduction to Energy Indicators - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
introduction to energy indicators introduction to energy
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Introduction to Energy Indicators Introduction to Energy Indicators - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

May 21, 2023 263 likes •848 views

Introduction to Energy Indicators Introduction to Energy Indicators Motivation and Approach Motivation and Approach Fridtjof Unander International Energy Agency CSD 14 4 May 2006 AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE LENERGIE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY

slide-1
SLIDE 1

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Introduction to Energy Indicators Introduction to Energy Indicators Motivation and Approach Motivation and Approach

Fridtjof Unander International Energy Agency CSD 14 4 May 2006

slide-2
SLIDE 2

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Assessing Energy Efficiency Progress:

A call for action from G8 Leaders and IEA Ministers

  • Gleneagles Plan of Action (G8 Communiqué):

We will [G8 Heads of States]….invite the IEA …to develop energy indicators to assess efficiency…

  • Communiqué from IEA Ministers May 2005:

“…instruct the IEA to monitor our efforts to [reinforce our energy efficiency effort]…”

slide-3
SLIDE 3

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Presentation Overview Presentation Overview

Why indicators? What are they? Examples Data needs

slide-4
SLIDE 4

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Why Indicators? Why Indicators?

Indicators can help...

Understand driving forces behind growth in energy demand Separate factors related to energy efficiency from those that are not Identify potentials for energy efficiency improvements Measure progress of energy efficiency measures

slide-5
SLIDE 5

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

What is an Energy Indicator? What is an Energy Indicator?

Relates energy use to activities driving demand for energy services Two main types:

1.Indicators following activities that drive energy use (e.g. industrial output, building area, appliance

  • wnership, ton-km, car-ownership and use)

2.Indicators following energy intensity developments: (e.g. energy/passenger-km, energy/value added by industry branch, space heating energy/floor area)

slide-6
SLIDE 6

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Example of Driving Force Example of Driving Force Car Ow nership and Income 1970 Car Ow nership and Income 1970-

  • 2000

2000

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Personal Consumption Expenditures per Capita (1000 1995 US$, PPP/capita) Car Ownership (vehicle/capita)

US Italy Australia Sweden France Finland UK Norway Netherlands Denmark Japan

Strong growth most places, slowly leveling off in the US

slide-7
SLIDE 7

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Example of Driving Force Annual kilometres per Vehicle

Annual car use (thousand vehicle-km/vehicle) 1974 1972 1970 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Denmark Finland US Canada Netherlands Australia UK France Norway Italy Japan 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Travel per vehicle is fairly stable over time

slide-8
SLIDE 8

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy for Cars (IEA Energy for Cars (IEA-

  • 11)

11)

Factors shaping development 1973 Factors shaping development 1973-

  • 1998

1998 Strong growth in car ownership while the use of each car has changed little

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average % Change per Year

Cars per Capita km/year per car

slide-9
SLIDE 9

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Example of Intensity Indicator Car Stock-average Fuel Intensity

Fleet average fuel intensity of cars (litres/100 vehicle-km)

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 US Canada Australia Japan Norway UK Netherlands Finland France Denmark Italy 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Strong decline in the US until 1990, no change since then

slide-10
SLIDE 10

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy for Cars (IEA Energy for Cars (IEA-

  • 11)

11)

Factors shaping development 1973 Factors shaping development 1973-

  • 1998

1998 Decline in fuel intensity has slowed….

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average % Change per Year

Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity Car Energy Use per capita

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average % Change per Year

Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity

slide-11
SLIDE 11

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy for Cars (IEA Energy for Cars (IEA-

  • 11)

11)

Factors shaping development 1973 Factors shaping development 1973-

  • 1998

1998 Net result is more rapid growth in fuel demand after 1990 despite lower growth in car ownership

  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average % Change per Year

Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity Effect Car Energy Use per capita

slide-12
SLIDE 12

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Example of Driving Force Example of Driving Force

House Area vs. Income (1973-1998)

Living space gets bigger as we get richer

10 20 30 40 50 60

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Personal consumption expenditures per capita (1000 1995 US$,PPP) Square meters of house area per capita

Australia Canada Denmark Finland France Italy Japan Norway Sweden UK US

slide-13
SLIDE 13

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy for Space Heating (IEA Energy for Space Heating (IEA-

  • 11)

11) Factors shaping development Factors shaping development

Bigger homes and fewer people per home steady drivers of space heating demand

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average annual percent change (%/yr)

Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect

slide-14
SLIDE 14

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Example of Intensity Indicator Useful Space Heating Intensity

kilojoules useful energy/square metre/degree-day 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200 250 150 100 50 Japan Norway US Denmark Sweden UK Australia Finland Germany France Canada

Space heating intensities have declined, but increased comfort levels offset the savings in some countries

slide-15
SLIDE 15

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy for Space Heating (IEA Energy for Space Heating (IEA-

  • 11)

11) Factors shaping development Factors shaping development

Declines in intensities are slowing….

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average annual percent change (%/yr)

Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect Conversion Efficiency Intensity Effect

slide-16
SLIDE 16

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy for Space Heating (IEA Energy for Space Heating (IEA-

  • 11)

11) Factors shaping development Factors shaping development

Net result is an increase in per capita heating demand after 1990

  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average annual percent change (%/yr)

Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect Conversion Efficiency Intensity Effect Space Heating per Capita

slide-17
SLIDE 17

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

1973 = 100%

Total Energy

slide-18
SLIDE 18

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7

1973 = 100%

Total Energy Total Energy, CC

slide-19
SLIDE 19

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7

1973 = 100%

Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita

slide-20
SLIDE 20

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7

1973 = 100%

Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household

slide-21
SLIDE 21

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

1973 = 100%

Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household Total/Sq. m

slide-22
SLIDE 22

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7

1973 = 100%

Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household Total/Sq. m Space heat/Sq. m

slide-23
SLIDE 23

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Indicators following energy developments Indicators following energy developments

Example: Residential energy use Norway

70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%

1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7

1973 = 100%

Total Energy Total Energy, CC Total/Capita Total/household Total/Sq. m Space heat/Sq. m Useful space heat/sq. m

slide-24
SLIDE 24

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Disaggregated energy indicators are data intensive Disaggregated energy indicators are data intensive

Why not simpler aggregated measures? Why not simpler aggregated measures?

slide-25
SLIDE 25

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Example: Energy per GDP Example: Energy per GDP India, China and OECD India, China and OECD

Total Primary Supply of commercial energy per unit of GDP

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1971 = 100%

OECD China India

slide-26
SLIDE 26

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1971 = 100%

OECD China India

Example: Energy per GDP Example: Energy per GDP India, China and OECD India, China and OECD

Total Primary Supply of commercial energy per unit of GDP

slide-27
SLIDE 27

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

The beginning of an explanation The beginning of an explanation

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0

I n d u s t r y 1 9 7 3 I n d u s t r y 1 9 9 I n d u s t r y 1 9 9 7 A g r i c u l t u r e 1 9 7 3 A g r i c u l t u r e 1 9 9 A g r i c u l t u r e 1 9 9 7 S e r v i c e s 1 9 7 1 S e r v i c e s 1 9 9 S e r v i c e s 1 9 9 7 ktoe/billion RS

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Share of GDP

Intensity GDP-share

slide-28
SLIDE 28

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Impact of Changes in Macro Structure Impact of Changes in Macro Structure

Changes E/GDP vs. Changes in Sector Intensities

(Industry, Agriculture and Services)

80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140%

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

1981 = 100%

Energy/GDP Energy/GDP @ Constant Macro Structure

slide-29
SLIDE 29

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Sub-sector Energy Intensities, Value- added and Energy Shares, IEA-11

10 20 30 40 50 60 Paper & Pulp Chemicals Nonmetallic Minerals P rimary Metals Food, Beverages, T

  • bacco

Other Manufacturing T

  • tal

Manufacturing

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Energ y & value-added shares (%) Energy intensity (megajoules/US$) 1998 Energy Intensities 1998 Value-added Shares 1998 Energy Shares

Energy-intensive sub-sectors contribute little to overall manufacturing output, but account for a large share of energy consumption

slide-30
SLIDE 30

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy Savings and Structural Change Energy Savings and Structural Change IEA IEA -

  • 11 Manufacturing

11 Manufacturing, 1973-1998

Strong reduction in energy per $ produced almost everywhere

  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% US Norway Japan Australia UK Sweden IEA-11 Average Annual Percent Change (%/yr)

Actual Energy Output Actual/Output

slide-31
SLIDE 31

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy Savings and Structural Change Energy Savings and Structural Change IEA IEA -

  • 11 Manufacturing

11 Manufacturing, 1973-1998

Structural changes explain some of the country difference in aggregate intensity

  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% US Norway Japan Australia UK Sweden IEA-11 Average Annual Percent Change (%/yr)

Actual Energy Output Actual/Output Structure Intensity

slide-32
SLIDE 32

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Total Economy

Residential Travel Freight Services Manufacturing Space Heat Water Heat Cooking Lighting Refrigerators Freezers Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Dishwashers Other Appliances Cars & Light Trucks Buses Passenger Rail Inland Air Travel Trucks Freight Rail Domestic Shipping Services total Paper & Pulp Industrial Chemicals Non-metallic Minerals Iron & Steel Non-ferrous Metals Food & Beverages Other

Sector & End Sector & End-

  • use Coverage

use Coverage

slide-33
SLIDE 33

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Energy Intensity Effects by Sector Energy Intensity Effects by Sector IEA IEA -

  • 11

11

1973 energy intensity effects = 100%

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Freight Transport Passenger Travel Total Service Households Manufacturing 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110%

Strong decline in energy intensities for all sectors since 1973

slide-34
SLIDE 34

IEA CO IEA CO2

2 Emissions 1973

Emissions 1973 -

  • 2001

2001

Recent trends show steady increase

80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

CO2 Emissions in 1990 = 100%

0.1%/year 1.1%/year

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

slide-35
SLIDE 35

IEA CO IEA CO2

2 Emissions per GDP

Emissions per GDP

1973 1973 -

  • 2001

2001

Rate of decline has slowed since 1990

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

CO2/GDP (kg CO2/USD)

  • 2.6 %/year
  • 1.2 %/year

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

slide-36
SLIDE 36

IEA IEA-

  • 11 CO

11 CO2

2 Emissions

Emissions Technology Frozen at 1973 Technology Frozen at 1973-

  • level

level

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%

1973-1990 1990

  • 1998

Average Annual % Growth

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions @ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

Without changes in fuel mix and energy efficiency emissions would have increased 2.2-2.5%/year

slide-37
SLIDE 37

IEA IEA-

  • 11 CO

11 CO2

2 Emissions

Emissions Impact of Changes in Fuel Mix Impact of Changes in Fuel Mix

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%

1973

  • 1990

1990

  • 1998

Average Annual % Growth

Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mix in fuel mix

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions @ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

Changes in supply and end-use fuel mix moderated growth in emissions by 0.5%/year

slide-38
SLIDE 38

IEA IEA-

  • 11 CO

11 CO2

2 Emissions

Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings

Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%

1973

  • 1990

1990

  • 1998

Average Annual % Growth

Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mix in fuel mix Energy Energy Savings Savings Actual Actual Emissions Emissions

Hypothetical CO2 Emissions @ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Energy Savings: Energy Savings: The Most Important Fuel The Most Important Fuel

Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher

Actual energy use

Additional energy use without savings

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997

exajoules 50%

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Hypothetical energy use, without savings

slide-40
SLIDE 40

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

IEA IEA -

  • 11 Energy Demand and

11 Energy Demand and Energy Savings Energy Savings

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0%

1973-1990 1990-1998

Average Annual % Growth

Energy Energy Savings Savings Actual Actual Energy Use Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savings without Energy Savings

Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth

slide-41
SLIDE 41

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Economy Economy-

  • w ide Intensity Effect

w ide Intensity Effect

1973 energy intensity effect = 100% 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% Japan US EUR-8

Intensity effect fell by about 30% in all three regions

slide-42
SLIDE 42

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Actual Energy Use and Energy Savings by Country & Sector

Japan US EUR-8 1973 energy Use = 100%

Manufacturing Service Households Passenger Travel Freight Transport Total Manufacturing Service Households Passenger Travel Freight Transport Total Manufacturing Service Households Passenger Travel Freight Transport Total

Actual Energy Use Additional Energy Use without Intensity Reductions 142% 120% 112% 61% 59% 59% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

Total energy savings across the three regions are similar, but there are important differences by sector

slide-43
SLIDE 43

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Contribution to Energy Savings from Sectors and End Uses

Space Heating 19% Appliances 3% Other Household 1% Car Travel 8% Service 18% Paper & Pulp 2% Chemicals 9% Nonmetallic Minerals 4% Primary Metals 13% Other Manufacturing 14% IEA-11 Air Travel 6% Truck Freight 1% Other Freight 2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Japan US EUR-8 Percent of total savings Freight Transport Passenger Transport Households Service Manufacturing

Outside the United States, transport has contributed little to

  • verall savings
slide-44
SLIDE 44

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Actual Energy Use & Tw o Savings Cases, IEA-11

75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 1990 Actual Energy Use 1998 Energy Use without Savings 1998 Actual Energy Use 1998 Energy Use with Accelerated Savings Exajoules + 6%

  • 13%

+ 18%

If savings rates had followed “the second best” IEA-11 could have saved 13% more energy between 1990 and 1998

slide-45
SLIDE 45

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Falling prices and successful energy savings have helped reducing energy budgets for industry and private consumers since the early 1980s:

Energy’s share of production cost in industry fell as much as 50% Energy cost as share of income for private homes fell 20-50% Fuel cost per km for cars fell by 20 to 60%

Can explain less incentive to sustain energy savings after 1990.

Energy Costs and Savings Energy Costs and Savings

slide-46
SLIDE 46

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Household Energy Expenditures as Share of Income

Energy ’s share of total personal consumption expenditures (%) 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 US France UK Canada Denmark Norway Sweden Japan 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

IEA households today spend considerably less of their incomes on energy than in the early 1980s

slide-47
SLIDE 47

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Real Oil Price and Changes in Energy Intensities

Correlation between slowing rate of decline in energy intensities and oil price level

0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 Oil Price 1973 = 100%

  • 6.0%
  • 5.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Average Annual % Change in Intensity Oil Price Manufacturing Intensity Effect Total Intensity Effect

slide-48
SLIDE 48

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Car Fuel Use per Capita vs. Price, 1998

Weighted real fuel price, including taxes (US$/litre) Fuel use per capita (gigajoules/capita) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 U S C a n a d a A u s t r a l i a J a p a n D e n m a r k G e r m a n y S w e d e n F i n l a n d U K N

  • r

w a y F r a n c e I t a l y N e t h e r l a n d s

Energy use for cars is higher where prices are lower

slide-49
SLIDE 49

OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES

Oil Crises & Climate Challenges

Travel and Intensities vs. Fuel price

Weighted Real Fuel Price (US$/litre) Thousand vehicle-km per capita 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Weighted Real Fuel Price (US$/litre) Fleet Average Vehicle Fuel Intensity (litres/100vkm) 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 U S U S C a n a d a C a n a d a A u s t r a l i a A u s t r a l i a J a p a n J a p a n D e n m a r k D e n m a r k G e r m a n y G e r m a n y S w e d e n S w e d e n F i n l a n d F i n l a n d U K U K N

  • r

w a y N

  • r

w a y F r a n c e F r a n c e I t a l y I t a l y N e t h e r l a n d s N e t h e r l a n d s

Higher fuel prices correlate with lower fuel intensity

slide-50
SLIDE 50

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Data Data The Painful Necessity The Painful Necessity

slide-51
SLIDE 51

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Matching Analysis and Data Matching Analysis and Data The Indicator Pyramid The Indicator Pyramid

IEA/Eurostat Statistics Aggregated indicators Disaggregated indicators IEA Indicator data Process efficiency Some scattered national data

slide-52
SLIDE 52

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Matching Analysis and Data Matching Analysis and Data The Indicator Pyramid The Indicator Pyramid

IEA/Eurostat Statistics Aggregated indicators Disaggregated indicators IEA Indicator data Process efficiency Some scattered national data

slide-53
SLIDE 53

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Developing Indicators Developing Indicators

Collection of data is the starting point

Analysing energy demand developments requires

=> Disaggregated data => of good quality => consistent over time and => consistent with international standards

Improving availability and quality of data requires national efforts Participation in international efforts adds value but require submission of consistent data

slide-54
SLIDE 54

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

IEA Energy Indicator Project:

Next Steps

  • Update:
  • IEA Indicator database to most recent year
  • Expand:
  • Cover more IEA Countries
  • Non-OECD Countries
  • Deepen:
  • New indicators to improve assessment of

energy efficiency progress in all sectors, e.g. for industry:

  • Use physical production, not value added as activity

measure

  • More disaggregated to capture production of key energy

intensive materials

slide-55
SLIDE 55

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

IEA Energy Indicator Project:

Deliverables

Continued update of IEA indicator database (next version mid 2006) Update of IEA’s “30 Years” Indicator publication, presenting trends for all sectors through 2001/2002/2003 (planned for 2006) Expanded indicator database with key non-OECD countries (2007-2008) Develop more detailed indicators to address the G8 tasks on buildings, transport and industry (2006-2007) Workshops focused on non-OECD countries and on development of new indicators (2006-2007) Publication on trends in energy use and efficiency in IEA and key non-OECD countries (Spring 2008)

slide-56
SLIDE 56

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Taking Indicators Forw ard

Issues Discussed at IEA Workshop

Data and methodology go together Indicators motivate need for data Indicators a tool for checking data Help to understand what you don’t understand Short-term analytical needs vs. long-term data collection efforts What to do when data is missing? Communication between statisticians, analysts and policy makers needed

slide-57
SLIDE 57

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

Taking Indicators Forw ard

Issues Discussed at IEA Workshop (cont.)

National efforts crucial to feed data to IEA and to help assessing trends The need for assessing new indicators by sector Sector specific issues, e.g. household surveys Expand IEA indicator project to non- OECD countries Collaboration to improve definitions, e.g. energy efficiency vs. conservation