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Training/workshop on Training/workshop on Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi- -Hazard Risk Assessment: Hazard Risk Assessment: Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort


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Introduction to Risk Assessment Introduction to Risk Assessment

Training/workshop on Training/workshop on “ “Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi-

  • Hazard Risk Assessment:

Hazard Risk Assessment: Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort” ”

Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)

Material prepared from Lorena Montoya, Paul Hofste, and Cess van Western, ITC

13 - 31 March 2006, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Institute of the
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SLIDE 2

Learning objectives Learning objectives

  • Basic components of risk assessment

Basic components of risk assessment

  • GIS based risk assessment procedure

GIS based risk assessment procedure

  • Spatial data requirements for risk assessment

Spatial data requirements for risk assessment

  • Quantify the disaster losses based on databases

Quantify the disaster losses based on databases

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SLIDE 3

Components Components

  • Disaster statistics

Disaster statistics

  • Reasons for increase

Reasons for increase

  • Components of disaster risk management

Components of disaster risk management

  • Basic formula of risk

Basic formula of risk

  • Definitions of risk, hazards, vulnerability

Definitions of risk, hazards, vulnerability

  • Spatial aspect of risk, hazards and vulnerability

Spatial aspect of risk, hazards and vulnerability

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SLIDE 4

Disasters, one after the other Disasters, one after the other… …

Earthquake Pakistan / India Hurricanes Central America Hurricane Katrina Flooding Central Europe Tsunami Asia Flooding India Cyclone Vietnam Avian Flu Conflicts

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SLIDE 5

Disaster Disaster

A serious disruption of the functioning of a A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental human, material, economic or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected losses which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own community or society to cope using its own resources. resources.

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SLIDE 6

Disaster Disaster

  • Disasters can be at different magnitude:

Disasters can be at different magnitude:

  • When does a traffic accident become a disaster

When does a traffic accident become a disaster

  • Disasters can be at different scales

Disasters can be at different scales

  • Individual

Individual-

  • family

family-

  • community

community-

  • municipality

municipality… …. . world world

  • Disasters can be fast or slow

Disasters can be fast or slow

  • Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a

Is desertification a disaster? Is water pollution a disaster? disaster?

  • Disasters can be predictable or unexpected

Disasters can be predictable or unexpected

  • firework explosion, caf

firework explosion, café é fire, airplane crash, fire, airplane crash, animal diseases, flooding animal diseases, flooding

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SLIDE 7

Disaster types Disaster types

  • Extraterrestrial

Extraterrestrial

  • asteroid impact

asteroid impact

  • Internal Geo

Internal Geo-

  • dynamic processes

dynamic processes

  • Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

  • External geodynamic processes

External geodynamic processes

  • Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation

Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation

  • Hydrometeorological

Hydrometeorological

  • Floods, Tropical storms, drought

Floods, Tropical storms, drought

  • Ecological / environmental

Ecological / environmental

  • Pollution, crop disease,

Pollution, crop disease,

  • Epidemics

Epidemics

  • SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu

SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu

  • Technological

Technological

  • (Industrial) accidents

(Industrial) accidents

  • Conflicts

Conflicts

  • War, land mines, terrorism

War, land mines, terrorism

Hazards are purely natural Hazards are purely man-made

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SLIDE 8

Disaster statistics Disaster statistics

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SLIDE 9

Disaster statistics Disaster statistics

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SLIDE 10

Increasing vulnerability Increasing vulnerability

  • ngoing
  • ngoing trends

trends

  • Population

Population growth growth

  • climate

climate variability variability and and climate climate change change

  • Migration of population to cities

Migration of population to cities

  • Higher vulnerability of industrialized societies

Higher vulnerability of industrialized societies

  • increased

increased environmental environmental degradation degradation

  • Densely populated communities

Densely populated communities

  • More people living on marginal lands

More people living on marginal lands

  • Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcity

Greater unplanned settlements due to land scarcity

  • High risk due to natural and manmade hazards

High risk due to natural and manmade hazards

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Disaster risk management

  • Disaster management can be defined as the

Disaster management can be defined as the effective organization, direction and utilization effective organization, direction and utilization

  • f available counter
  • f available counter-
  • disaster resources

disaster resources

  • The modern view is that there must be pre

The modern view is that there must be pre-

  • disaster mitigation measures to avoid or

disaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce impact of disasters. Pre reduce impact of disasters. Pre-

  • disaster

disaster measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called called Risk Management Risk Management

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Disaster management cycle

  • disaster prevention

disaster prevention

  • disaster preparedness

disaster preparedness

  • disaster relief

disaster relief

  • Rehabilitation

Rehabilitation

  • Reconstruction

Reconstruction

Traditional approach. Is it really a cycle?

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SLIDE 13

Key elements of Disaster Management Key elements of Disaster Management

Pre-disaster phases Post-disaster phases

Risk Identification Mitigation Risk Transfer Preparedness Emergency response Rehabilitation and Reconstruction

Hazard Assessment Physical/stru ctural mitigation works Insurance/ reinsurance Early warning systems. Communicati

  • n systems

Humanitarian assistance / rescue Rehabilitation/rec

  • nstruction of

damaged critical infrastructure Vulnerability assessment Land-use planning and building codes Financial market instruments Monitoring and forecasting Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services Macroeconomic and budget management Risk Assessment Economic incentives Privatization

  • f public

services with safety regulations Shelter facilities Emergency planning Damage assessment Revitalization of affected sectors (exports,tourism) GIS mapping and scenario building Education, training and awareness Calamity funds Contingency planning (utility companies / public services) Mobilization

  • f recovery

resources Incorporation of disaster mitigation components in reconstruction

  • Sources: Worldbank, DMF & USAID
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Risk Risk

  • Risk

Risk is the likelihood or probability of a is the likelihood or probability of a hazard event

  • f

a certain magnitude hazard event

  • f

a certain magnitude

  • ccurring. Risks are measures of the threat of
  • ccurring. Risks are measures of the threat of

hazards. hazards.

  • ADPC

ADPC

  • Risk

is the actual exposure

  • f

something of human value to a hazard. Often regarded as the product of probability and loss..

  • ADPC
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SLIDE 15

Risk Risk

  • Risk

Risk is the exposure or the chance of loss due to a particular hazard for a given area and reference period. It may be expressed mathematically as the probability that a hazard impact will occur multiplied by the consequences of that impact.

  • ADPC

ADPC

  • Note: Definitions of risk in the hazards

literature vary from those that equate risk with probability to those that see risk as the product of a probability and a particular kind

  • f impact occurring
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RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT The most complicated simple formula The most complicated simple formula

Hazard Hazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude = Probability of event with a certain magnitude

  • Triggering mechanism

Triggering mechanism

  • Type of event

Type of event

  • Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed

Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed etc etc

Vulnerability Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of: = Degree of damage. Function of:

  • magnitude of event, and

magnitude of event, and

  • type of elements at risk

type of elements at risk

Amount Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g. = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.

  • Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.

Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.

  • Loss of function or economic activities

Loss of function or economic activities

  • Number of people

Number of people

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Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk Hazard, Vulnerability and elements at risk

  • Natural hazard (H):

Natural hazard (H): the probability of occurrence of a the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a given area. time and within a given area.

  • Vulnerability (V):

Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the set of elements at risk (see below) resulting from the

  • ccurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is
  • ccurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is

expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss). expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).

  • Elements at risk

Elements at risk the population, properties, economic activities, the population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area. including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

Hazard= Hazard= PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude

PROBABILITY of event with a certain magnitude

Vulnerability = Vulnerability = Degree of damage. Function of:

Degree of damage. Function of:

  • magnitude of event, and

magnitude of event, and

  • type of elements at risk

type of elements at risk

Amount = Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g

Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.

.

  • Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.

Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.

  • Loss of function or economic activities

Loss of function or economic activities

  • Number of people

Number of people

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SLIDE 19

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY CAPACITY

Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Capacity = Capacity = expresses the positive

expresses the positive managerial and operational resources and managerial and operational resources and procedures for reducing risk factors procedures for reducing risk factors

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SLIDE 20

Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

  • Example:

Example:

10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Hazard

= probability within a given period = 0.1 / year

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * 1 *50.000 = 5.000 US $

V = V = 1

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

  • Example:

Example:

10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * ( (0.5*200.000)+ (0.1*100.000)+ (1 * 50.000)) = 0.1 * 160.000 = 16.000 $

V = V = 1 V = V = 0.1 US $ 100.0 $ 100.000 US $ 200.0 $ 200.000 V = V = 0.5

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SLIDE 22

Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

  • Example:

Example:

2 y 2 year ears R RP 10 y 10 year ears R RP 50 y 50 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Hazard = 0.5 * 0.01 * 50.000 +

0.1 * 0.1 * 50.000 + 0.02 * 1 * 50.000 = = 250 + 500 + 1000 = 1750 US $

V = = 0.01 0.01 V = V = 0.1 V = V = 1 10000 10000 1 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1000 1000 Ri Risk c sk curve rve

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Elements at risk Vulnerability Consequence Probability

  • f failure

For all credible hazards

=

N i i i i

V E P Risk

) ( ) ( ) (

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In reality In reality

  • Example:

Example:

RP RP = = ?? ?? Pr Price is ice is ? ???

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = ? * ? * ? = unknown What is needed: hazard assessment , elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, cost estimation.

V = = ???? ???? Depth = th = ???? ????

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SLIDE 25

Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

  • Example:

Example:

US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1*((0.5*200.000)+(0.1*100.000)+(1*50.000)) = 0.1*160.000 = 16.000 $

V = V = 1 V = V = 0.1 US $ 100.0 $ 100.000 US $ 200.0 $ 200.000 V = V = 0.5 10 y 10 year ears R RP

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Landslide risk assessment Landslide risk assessment

US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 V = V = 1 V = V = 0.1 US $ 100.0 $ 100.000 US $ 200.0 $ 200.000 V = V = 0.5 10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 P= P=0.5 V 0.5 V = = 0.01 0.01 P= P=0.1 V 0.1 V = = 0.1 0.1 P= P=0.02 V 0.02 V = = 1 1

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Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Amount Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Amount

  • Very complicated topic

Very complicated topic

2 y 2 year ears R RP 10 y 10 year ears R RP 50 y 50 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 V = = 0.01 0.01 V = V = 0.1 V = V = 1 10000 10000 1 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1000 1000 Ri Risk c sk curve rve

In practice this is very complicated:

  • Quantifying probability
  • Mapping all elements at risk
  • Quantifying vulnerability
  • Multi-hazard risk assessment
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Risk is a spatial problem Risk is a spatial problem

  • Hazard:

Hazard: How much water How much water when and where? when and where?

  • Elements at risk:

Elements at risk: Which elements Which elements where, and how where, and how many/much ? many/much ?

  • Vulnerability:

Vulnerability: How much water How much water where which where which elements at risk are? elements at risk are?

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Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem Risk is a multidisciplinary spatial problem

  • Hazard assessment:

Hazard assessment: done by earth scientists, done by earth scientists, hydrologists, hydrologists, volcanologists volcanologists, , seismologists etc. seismologists etc.

  • Elements at risk:

Elements at risk: done by geographers, urban done by geographers, urban planners, civil engineers planners, civil engineers

  • Cost estimation:

Cost estimation: done by economists done by economists

  • Vulnerability:

Vulnerability: done by structural engineers, civil done by structural engineers, civil engineers engineers

  • Risk assessment:

Risk assessment: Done by GIS experts Done by GIS experts Vulnerability map Risk map Hazard map Cost information Elements at risk

Aerial photographs Satellite images GPS Statistical tables

Risk a asse ssessme ssment n needs s GIS GIS

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Risk assessment Risk assessment

  • Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003)

Source: OAS , Steve Bender (2003)

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Risk assessment in basic form Risk assessment in basic form

Hazard footprint EaR footprint Risk footprint

Characteristics:

  • Type of event
  • Magnitude
  • Speed

Characteristics:

  • Type of EaR
  • Vulnerability
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SLIDE 32

Information required Information required

  • For hazard assessment

For hazard assessment

  • Scientific studies/maps, long

Scientific studies/maps, long-

  • term monitoring, historic

term monitoring, historic

  • reports on past incidence of hazards, in particular the

reports on past incidence of hazards, in particular the

  • location, frequency and severity of the events

location, frequency and severity of the events

  • Understanding of factors influencing hazard occurrence

Understanding of factors influencing hazard occurrence

  • For vulnerability assessment

For vulnerability assessment

  • Hazard characteristics (from the hazard assessment)

Hazard characteristics (from the hazard assessment)

  • Characteristics of the element/system of interest:

Characteristics of the element/system of interest:

  • location/site, structural strength/quality, content exposure

location/site, structural strength/quality, content exposure

  • Environmental quality

Environmental quality

  • For risk assessment

For risk assessment

  • Same as for vulnerability assessment, plus specific damage

Same as for vulnerability assessment, plus specific damage

  • / loss frequency estimates for elements at risk

/ loss frequency estimates for elements at risk

  • Specific hazard scenario

Specific hazard scenario

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Risk management Risk management

Risk management Risk control Risk assessment Risk evaluation Risk analysis Risk estimation Hazard identification Consequence analysis Frequency analysis Risk calculation Elements at risk Vulnerability

Treatment Mitigation Planning Measures Monitoring Tolerable risk Acceptable risk Client decision Type Magnitude Travel distance Rate of movement

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Risk concepts and definitions Risk concepts and definitions

  • Risk estimation:

Risk estimation: the process used to produce a measure of the level of health, the process used to produce a measure of the level of health, property, or environmental risks being analysed. Risk estimation property, or environmental risks being analysed. Risk estimation contains the contains the followings steps: frequency analysis, consequence analysis and t followings steps: frequency analysis, consequence analysis and their integration. heir integration.

  • Risk analysis:

Risk analysis: the use of available information to estimate the risk to indivi the use of available information to estimate the risk to individuals or duals or populations, property, or the environment, from hazards. Risk an populations, property, or the environment, from hazards. Risk analysis generally alysis generally contains the following steps: scope definition, hazard identific contains the following steps: scope definition, hazard identification, and risk ation, and risk estimation. estimation.

  • Risk evaluation:

Risk evaluation: the stage at which values and judgements enter the decision the stage at which values and judgements enter the decision process, explicitly or implicitly, by including consideration of process, explicitly or implicitly, by including consideration of the importance of the the importance of the estimated risks and the associated social, environmental, and ec estimated risks and the associated social, environmental, and economic

  • nomic

consequences, in order to identify a range of alternatives for m consequences, in order to identify a range of alternatives for managing the risks. anaging the risks.

  • Risk assessment:

Risk assessment: the process of risk analysis and risks evaluation. the process of risk analysis and risks evaluation.

  • Risk control or risk treatment:

Risk control or risk treatment: the process of decision making for managing risks, the process of decision making for managing risks, and the implementation, or enforcement of risk mitigation measur and the implementation, or enforcement of risk mitigation measures and the re es and the re-

  • evaluation of its effectiveness from time to time, using the res

evaluation of its effectiveness from time to time, using the results of risk ults of risk assessment as one input. assessment as one input.

  • Risk management:

Risk management: the complete process of risk assessment and risk control (or the complete process of risk assessment and risk control (or risk treatment). risk treatment).

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Risk analysis Risk analysis

  • The use of available information to estimate the risk to

The use of available information to estimate the risk to individuals or populations, property or the environment, from individuals or populations, property or the environment, from hazards. hazards.

  • Risk analyses generally contain the following steps:

Risk analyses generally contain the following steps:

  • definition of scope,

definition of scope,

  • danger (threat) identification,

danger (threat) identification,

  • estimation of probability of occurrence to estimate hazard,

estimation of probability of occurrence to estimate hazard,

  • evaluation of the vulnerability of the element(s) at risk,

evaluation of the vulnerability of the element(s) at risk,

  • consequence identification, and

consequence identification, and

  • risk estimation.

risk estimation.

  • Qualitative risk analysis:

Qualitative risk analysis: An analysis which uses word form, An analysis which uses word form, descriptive or numeric rating scales to describe the magnitude descriptive or numeric rating scales to describe the magnitude

  • f potential consequences and the likelihood that those
  • f potential consequences and the likelihood that those

consequences will occur. consequences will occur.

  • Quantitative risk analysis:

Quantitative risk analysis: An analysis based on numerical An analysis based on numerical values of the probability, vulnerability and consequences, and values of the probability, vulnerability and consequences, and resulting in a numerical value of the risk. resulting in a numerical value of the risk.

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Risk types Risk types

  • Individual risk:

Individual risk: the risk of fatality or injury to any identifiable (named) the risk of fatality or injury to any identifiable (named) individual who live within the zone impacted by the landslide; o individual who live within the zone impacted by the landslide; or follows a r follows a particular pattern of life that might subject him or her to the particular pattern of life that might subject him or her to the consequences of the landslide. consequences of the landslide.

  • Societal risk:

Societal risk: the risk of multiple fatalities or injuries in society as a the risk of multiple fatalities or injuries in society as a whole: one where society would have to carry the burden of a lan whole: one where society would have to carry the burden of a landslide dslide causing a number of deaths, injury, financial, environmental, an causing a number of deaths, injury, financial, environmental, and other d other losses. losses.

  • Acceptable risk:

Acceptable risk: a risk for which, for the purpose of life or work, we are a risk for which, for the purpose of life or work, we are prepared to accept as it is with no regard to its management. So prepared to accept as it is with no regard to its management. Society ciety does not generally consider expenditure in further reducing such does not generally consider expenditure in further reducing such risks risks justifiable. justifiable.

  • Tolerable risk:

Tolerable risk: a risk that society is willing to live with so as to secure a risk that society is willing to live with so as to secure certain net benefits in the confidence that it is being properly certain net benefits in the confidence that it is being properly controlled, controlled, kept under review and further reduced as and when possible. kept under review and further reduced as and when possible.

  • E. Castellanos, Nov. 2004
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SLIDE 37

MITIGABLE MITIGABLE

CONTROLLABLE CONTROLLABLE

INCONTROLLABLE INCONTROLLABLE A C C E P T E D A C C E P T E D R I S K R I S K

CATEGORIES OF RISK CATEGORIES OF RISK

HAZARD HAZARD VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY

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SLIDE 38

Elements at risk Elements at risk

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SLIDE 39

Vulnerability Vulnerability

  • Vulnerability (V):

Vulnerability (V): the degree of loss to a given element or the degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk resulting from the occurrence of a set of elements at risk resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on natural phenomenon of a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss). a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss).

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Quantitative definitions of Vulnerability Quantitative definitions of Vulnerability

“ “A community A community’ ’s s probability probability of suffering human or

  • f suffering human or

material damage if exposed to a hazard, material damage if exposed to a hazard, according to the according to the degree of fragility degree of fragility of its elements

  • f its elements

(infrastructure, livelihood, production activities, (infrastructure, livelihood, production activities,

  • rganizational degree, early warning or alert
  • rganizational degree, early warning or alert

systems, political and institutional development, systems, political and institutional development, etc.) (Caballeros et al., 2000). etc.) (Caballeros et al., 2000). Proba Proba-

  • bility

bility of

  • f

sufferin sufferin g g damag damag e e “ “level of graveness level of graveness up to which a community, a up to which a community, a structure, a service or a geographic area can be structure, a service or a geographic area can be affected or disturbed by the impact of a certain affected or disturbed by the impact of a certain hazard hazard” ” (Chardon and (Chardon and Gonz Gonzá ález lez, 2002). , 2002). “ “the the degree of loss degree of loss to a given element or set of to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a hazard. It elements within the area affected by a hazard. It is expressed on a scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (total is expressed on a scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (total loss) loss)” ” (UNDRO, 1979). (UNDRO, 1979). Degree Degree

  • f loss
  • f loss
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SLIDE 41

“ “the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and env the conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors ironmental factors

  • r processes, which increase the
  • r processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community

susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards to the impact of hazards” ” (UN/ISDR, 2004). (UN/ISDR, 2004). “ “predisposition, susceptibility predisposition, susceptibility or physical, economical, political or social feasibility of a

  • r physical, economical, political or social feasibility of a

community to be affected or of suffering damages in case a desta community to be affected or of suffering damages in case a destabilizing phenomenon bilizing phenomenon

  • f natural or human origin occurs (Cardona, 2001b).
  • f natural or human origin occurs (Cardona, 2001b).

“ “how easily how easily the exposed people, physical objects and activities may be affe the exposed people, physical objects and activities may be affected in the cted in the short or long term short or long term” ” (Davidson, 1997). (Davidson, 1997). “ “being prone to being prone to or susceptible to damage or injury

  • r susceptible to damage or injury”

” and redefined it as and redefined it as “ “the the characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity characteristics of a person or group in terms of their capacity to anticipate, cope with, to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard” ” ( (Blaikie Blaikie et al., 1994). et al., 1994). “ “propensity propensity of things to be damaged by a hazard

  • f things to be damaged by a hazard”

” (Coburn, 1994). (Coburn, 1994). ” ”internal risk factor of a subject or exposed system to a hazard, internal risk factor of a subject or exposed system to a hazard, corresponds to its corresponds to its intrinsic predisposition intrinsic predisposition to be affected or susceptible of suffering a loss to be affected or susceptible of suffering a loss” ” (Cardona, 1993). (Cardona, 1993). “ “to be susceptible to be susceptible of suffering damage and having difficulties recovering from it.

  • f suffering damage and having difficulties recovering from it.

Inflexibility or inability to adapt Inflexibility or inability to adapt” ” ( (Maskrey Maskrey, 1993). , 1993). “ “condition in which human settlements or buildings are in danger condition in which human settlements or buildings are in danger due to the proximity of a due to the proximity of a hazard, the quality of the building materials or both hazard, the quality of the building materials or both” ” ( (Cuny Cuny, 1983). , 1983). Inflexibility Inflexibility or inability to adapt

  • r inability to adapt”

” ( (Maskrey Maskrey, 1993). , 1993). “ “A community A community’ ’s s inability inability to absorb, through auto to absorb, through auto-

  • adjustment, the effects of a certain

adjustment, the effects of a certain change in its change in its’ ’ environment. Change inflexibility (

  • environment. Change inflexibility (Wilches

Wilches-

  • Chaux

Chaux, 1988). , 1988).

Qualitative definitions of Vulnerability Qualitative definitions of Vulnerability

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SLIDE 42

Losses Losses

  • Disaster losses include the

Disaster losses include the direct impacts direct impacts like like the loss of life, housing and infrastructure as the loss of life, housing and infrastructure as well as well as indirect impacts indirect impacts on production in

  • n production in

utility services, transport, labor supplies, utility services, transport, labor supplies, suppliers and markets. Secondary losses suppliers and markets. Secondary losses include impacts on macroeconomic variables include impacts on macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, balance of such as economic growth, balance of payments, public spending and inflation. The payments, public spending and inflation. The impacts are felt more by developing impacts are felt more by developing countries. countries.

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SLIDE 43

Specific and total risk Specific and total risk

  • Specific risk (

Specific risk (Rs Rs): ): the expected degree of loss due to the expected degree of loss due to a particular natural phenomenon. It may be a particular natural phenomenon. It may be expressed by the product of H, V and costs C. expressed by the product of H, V and costs C. Rs Rs = H * V * C = H * V * C

  • Total risk (

Total risk (Rt Rt): ): the expected number of lives lost, the expected number of lives lost, persons injured, damage to property, or disruption of persons injured, damage to property, or disruption of economic activity due to a all natural phenomena. It economic activity due to a all natural phenomena. It is therefore the sum of the specific risks for all return is therefore the sum of the specific risks for all return periods and all types of events. periods and all types of events. SUM( SUM( Rs Rs = H * V * C) = H * V * C) For all elements at risk For all elements at risk For all magnitudes For all magnitudes For all hazard types For all hazard types

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SLIDE 44

Loss estimation methods Loss estimation methods

  • Freely available applications:

Freely available applications:

  • RADIUS: Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas

RADIUS: Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters ( against Seismic Disasters (GeoHazards GeoHazards International, 1999) International, 1999)

  • HAZUS

HAZUS-

  • MH (FEMA, 2003)

MH (FEMA, 2003)

  • Adaptations of HAZUS to particular countries

Adaptations of HAZUS to particular countries

e.g.Taiwan e.g.Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES) Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)

AGSO Cities Project (Australia) AGSO Cities Project (Australia)

  • Commercial or non

Commercial or non-

  • free applications:

free applications:

  • NHEMATIS (Canada)

NHEMATIS (Canada)

  • MRQuake

MRQuake, , MRStorm MRStorm and and MRFlood MRFlood ( (MunichRe MunichRe) )

  • RiskLink

RiskLink-

  • ALM,

ALM, RiskLink RiskLink-

  • DLM,

DLM, RiskBrowser RiskBrowser and RMS and RMS-

  • DataWizard

DataWizard (RMS) (RMS)

  • CLASIC/2

CLASIC/2, , CATRADER CATRADER, , CATMAP/2 CATMAP/2, , AIRProfiler AIRProfiler, , ALERT ALERT (AIR) (AIR)

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SLIDE 45

Hazus Hazus MH MH

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SLIDE 46

Risk & vulnerability indexes Risk & vulnerability indexes

1) The World Bank Hotspots (hazard and vulnerability information 1) The World Bank Hotspots (hazard and vulnerability information) ) 2) UNDP Disaster Risk Index (DRI) 2) UNDP Disaster Risk Index (DRI) http://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm http://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm 3) World Economic Forum Environmental Sustainability Indicators 3) World Economic Forum Environmental Sustainability Indicators http:// http://www.weforum www.weforum .org/ .org/ pdf pdf /Gcr/GCR_2003_2004/GCI_Chapter.pdf /Gcr/GCR_2003_2004/GCI_Chapter.pdf 4) International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent So 4) International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies cieties (IFRC) World Disaster Report (IFRC) World Disaster Report http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2003/ http://www.ifrc.org/publicat/wdr2003/ 5) Asian Disaster Research Center Global Unique Disaster Identif 5) Asian Disaster Research Center Global Unique Disaster Identifier ier Number (GLIDE) Number (GLIDE) http:// http://glidenumber.net glidenumber.net/ / 6) Web 6) Web-

  • based VATA tool location information sponsored by the OAS, U.S.

based VATA tool location information sponsored by the OAS, U.S. NOAA, and the Caribbean Development Bank ( NOAA, and the Caribbean Development Bank (www.csc.noaa.gov www.csc.noaa.gov / /vata vata) ) 7 ) CRED 7 ) CRED -

  • Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters http:// http://www.cred.be www.cred.be/ /

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SLIDE 47

The risk matrix The risk matrix

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SLIDE 48

Risk matrix Risk matrix

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SLIDE 49

Risk matrix Risk matrix