Key takeaways Key takeaways Hydro is well suited for today's - - PDF document

October 2016

The Value of Hydropower in an Energy Rich System The Value of Hydropower in an Energy Rich System

PNUCC Board of Directors – October 7, 2016

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October 2016

Key takeaways Key takeaways

Hydro is well suited for today's Northwest power sector

– Hydro can provide a full range of power products H d ’ CO f tt ib t b fi i l b l ti t – Hydro’s CO2 free attribute beneficial as carbon regulations mature

Capacity and flexibility, which hydro can provide, becoming more valuable more valuable

– Coal unit retirements may increase value of peak capacity resources – More variable energy resources driving regional flexibility needs – Capacity and flexibility may become a large piece of the value of hydro

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October 2016

Hydro can provide a full range of power products Hydro can provide a full range of power products

F t d J 2017

• Energy
• Capacity

30 000 40,000 Forecasted Jan 2017

• ne hour need
• Flexibility
• Other ancillary services

20,000 30,000 MW 10,000 NW hydro one hour peak generation (Jan) Critical (8%) hydro 1 hr peak 50% hydro 1 hr peak

Hydro provides the bulk of the regions peak capacity

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PNUCC NRF October 2016

Hydro keeps Northwest emissions low Hydro keeps Northwest emissions low

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EIA data

October 2016

Capacity needs on the horizon Capacity needs on the horizon

Group/report Metric Year 2021 Group/report Metric value PNUCC 2016 Northwest Regional Forecast 1‐hour January load/resource balance (4,100) MW 10% (13% Council 2016 adequacy assessment Loss‐of‐load probability (5% or under is the goal) 10% (13% without Colstrip 1&2) 120‐hour January load/resource balance (2,200) MW BPA 2015 White Book balance 1‐hour January load/resource balance (900) MW The BPA White Book and PNUCC Forecast both focus on critical water planning but the White Book includes 3,000 MW of uncommitted independent power producer generation and the PNUCC Forecast does not

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October 2016

Annual energy looks surplus Annual energy looks surplus

24,000 NRF firm resources NRF firm requirements 22,000 23,000 gy (MWa) NRF firm requirements 21,000 Annual energ 20,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 A Forecasted first year ‐ PNUCC Northwest Regional Forecasts

The PNUCC Forecast, BPA White Book and Council Adequacy all see an energy surplus on the regional level see an energy surplus on the regional level

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October 2016

Changing system affects value of hydro

• As power system needs change the value of energy, capacity,

Changing system affects value of hydro

p y g gy, p y, and flexibility will change as well

Flexibility and capacity may become a large piece of the value of hydro – Flexibility and capacity may become a large piece of the value of hydro – These values could be difficult to realize due to lack of formal markets

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October 2016

Reworked flexibility discussion Reworked flexibility discussion

• Expanded to discuss services flexible generators can provide

p g p

Resource is Can provide Time step Resource is… Can provide… Time step Spinning with frequency response governor Frequency control Momentary Spinning with automatic generation Sub minute Spinning with automatic generation control Regulation reserves Sub minute to 10 min Spinning Operational reserves, load following, contingency reserves, Minute to h Non spinning (but can be online < 10 g, g y , etc. hour Non‐spinning (but can be online < 10 min)

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October 2016

Added data from regions with flexibility markets Added data from regions with flexibility markets

Figure from CAISO 2015 Annual Report on Market Issues & Performance

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October 2016

Key takeaways Key takeaways

Hydro is well suited for today's Northwest power sector

– Hydro can provide a full range of power products H d ’ CO f tt ib t b fi i l b l ti t – Hydro’s CO2 free attribute beneficial as carbon regulations mature

Capacity and flexibility, which hydro can provide, becoming more valuable more valuable

– Coal unit retirements may increase value of peak capacity resources – More variable energy resources driving regional flexibility needs – Capacity and flexibility may become a large piece of the value of hydro

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October 2016

Next steps Next steps

• Send any input to Tomás ASAP

y p

• Seeking approval from PNUCC System Planning Committee on

October 14

• Posted on website by end of October (will send an
• Posted on website by end of October (will send an

announcement via email as well)

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