LADC 2013 WDAS Panel Dependability in self-adaptive systems: How to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Javier'Cámara.'University'of'Coimbra,'Portugal'

LADC 2013 WDAS Panel Dependability in self-adaptive systems: How to justify trust in the face of “unknown unknowns”?

Unknown&Unknowns&(UnkUnks)&

“To know that we know what we know and that we do not know what we do not know — that is true knowledge”

• Confucius

“In epistemology and decision theory, the term unknown unknown refers to circumstances or outcomes that were not conceived of by an observer at a given point in time.”

• Wikipedia

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Knowledge&and&Awareness&

David Hillson. Exploiting Future Uncertainty: Creating Value from Risk Gower Publishing.

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Uncertainty&

 Type 1: Known Unknowns

• Explore boundaries of uncertainty
• Understand potential impact
• Implement appropriate response

mechanisms

 Type 2: Unknown Unknowns

• Truly unknown: cannot be described
• Impact can only be assessed a posteriori
• Can only be dealt with reactively

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Tacoma Narrows Bridge, Nov. 7th, 1940

Trust&in&the&Face&of&Unkown&Unknowns&

Can trust be justified in the face of Unknown Unknowns? No, but trust can be improved:

• Proactive reduction of Unknown Unknowns
• Exploration and learning about the domain
• Exhaustive experimentation
• Design maximizing flexibility
• Interfaces for cooperative decision-making
• Improvement of adaptive capabilities over time (e.g., machine

learning)

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