Legislative and Political Outlook JULY 26, 2018 Ryan Ullman - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Legislative and Political Outlook

Ryan Ullman

Director of Government Relations and Political Affairs, IPAA JULY 26, 2018

Retaking the House in 2018

Net gain needed by Democrats to retake the House

24

Republicans running in House districts carried by Clinton in 2016

25

Sources: Gallup, American Presidency Project

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Average result, since 1970, for President’s Party in midterm when job approval is below 50%

33

Seats lost

The House Battleground

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Democrats Must Net Two Seats to Take Control

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*Minnesota and Mississippi have two races apiece because of special elections to fill the seats of senators who resigned. Source: U.S. Senate

Republican Friendly Senate Map

Source: U.S. Senate

Five Democrats are defending seats in states the president won by at least 18 percentage points

Jon Tester (MT) Heidi Heitkamp (ND) Joe Donnelly (IN) Joe Manchin (WV) Claire McCaskill (MO) I N D E P E N D E N T P E T R O L E U M A S S O C I A T I O N O F A M E R I C A | W W W . I P A A . O R G

10 Democrats Running in States Trump Won

*Vukmir is backed by billionaire Diane Hendricks, while Nicholson is backed by Richard Uihlein, the founder of the packaging company Uline Corp. Source: Official state election results

Incumbent Trump Margin 2012 Senate Margin Notes Joe Manchin (W. Va.) 42% 24% State AG Patrick Morrisey won May 8 Republican primary Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) 36% 1%

• Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) entered race in February

Jon Tester (Mont.) 20% 4% State Auditor Matt Rosendale won June 5 GOP Primary Joe Donnelly (Ind.) 19% 6% Former state Rep. Mike Braun won May 8 GOP primary Claire McCaskill (Mo.) 19% 16% State AG Josh Hawley (R) won statewide in 2016 Sherrod Brown (Ohio) 8% 6%

• Rep. Jim Renacci (R) won May 8 primary

Bill Nelson (Fla.) 1% 13%

• Gov. Rick Scott (R) has statewide name recognition and personal

wealth Tammy Baldwin (Wis.) <1% 6% State Sen. Leah Vukmir, businessman Kevin Nicholson each have GOP megadonor ally* Bob Casey (Pa.) <1% 9%

• Rep. Lou Barletta (R) won May 15 primary

Debbie Stabenow (Mich.) <1% 21% Businessmen John James and Sandy Pensler seek to deny Stabenow fourth term

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Reauthorization of Major Government Programs

REAUTHORIZATIONS

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)

• Defines the next year’s military strategy and funding

levels, and usually includes reforms to other government entities Higher Education Act (HEA)

• Authorizes many major education

programs, usually for four years

Sources: National Journal Research, 2018.

Farm Bill

• Authorizes through 2023 most agricultural support and

food assistance programs, including SNAP

• Also includes some rural infrastructure spending

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

• Approves five years of funding for the FAA in addition

to other policy reforms including drones and funding for some infrastructure projects

Resolved Differences Full House Full Senate House Committee Senate Committee Resolved Differences Full House Full Senate House Committee Senate Committee Resolved Differences Full House Full Senate House Committee Senate Committee Resolved Differences Full House Full Senate House Committee Senate Committee

May 24, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed House (351-66) June 18, 2018: H.R. 5515 passed Senate with amendment (85-10) June 21, 2018: H.R. 2 passed House (213-211)

• Dec. 1, 2017: H.R. 4508 passed House Education and the

Workforce Committee April 27, 2018: H.R. 4 passed House (393-13)

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186 3 152 332

KEY SUB-CABINET POSITIONS

The Trump Administration has about Half of Key Staff in Place, with some Top-Level Officials Still Missing

Source: “Tracking how many key positions Trump has filled so far,” Washington Post

Status of Key Positions Requiring Senate Confirmation

AS OF JUNE 28, 2018 ■ No nominee ■ Awaiting nomination ■ Awaiting confirmation ■ Confirmed

Vacant Cabinet Secretaries:

• Veterans Affairs

− Robert Wilkie Departments without a Deputy Secretary:

• Commerce (Karen Dunn Kelley)
• Veterans Affairs (no nominee)
• Treasury (Justin George Muzinich

nominated)

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Supreme Court Nominee Brett Kavanaugh Will Need 51 Senate Votes to be Confirmed

SUPREME COURT

Sources: Senate.gov Daniel Tublen, June 28, 2018

Senate confirmation process after the “nuclear option” invoked on Supreme Court nominations President refers nominee to the Senate Senate Judiciary Committee holds a confirmation hearing Majority vote in the committee advances the nomination 51 votes to pass cloture and end Senate debate 51 votes to confirm the nominee Supreme Court justice sworn in

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What IPAA is Fighting

ORGANIZATION REVENUE

• Sierra Club Foundation

$72 Million in FY17

Source: Sierra Club Foundation Annual Report

• Sierra Club

$116 Million in FY16

Source: Sierra Club Form 990 Tax Filing

• Environmental Defense Fund

$158 Million in FY17

Source: EDF Annual Report

• National Wildlife Federation

$93 Million in FY17

Source: NWF Annual Report

$184 Million in FY17

Source: NRDC Annual Report

• National Resources Defense Council

TOTAL $623 MILLION TOTAL $623 MILLION