Lif Life of man: solitary, poor, f li nasty, brutish, and short - - PDF document

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 1

The fight for America's Future: The fight for America's Future: What kind of an "operating system”? Lif f li Life of man: solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short

Thomas Hobbes—Leviathan--1651

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 2

What Happened?

1 E t

• 1. Energy—steam
• 2. 1800’s liberal ideas of

government (Hayek, individual responsibility) Integrity of private property, Freedom

• 3. Innovation, compounding

science

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 3

The US is being challenged technically, The US is being challenged technically, economically, demographically and economically, demographically and politically like never before in history politically like never before in history The outcome is far from certain The outcome is far from certain Moore’s law: productivity Moore’s law: productivity--

• -more of

more of thi f h thi f h The limits to Growth The limits to Growth—Club of Rome Report Club of Rome Report everything for everyone, everywhere everything for everyone, everywhere

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 4

The implications of Moore’s law: can be The implications of Moore’s law: can be More of everything for everyone, everywhere More of everything for everyone, everywhere No No limits to growth limits to growth— —unlimited wealth, unlimited wealth, freedom = free enterprise / free innovation freedom = free enterprise / free innovation Ubiquitous information and innovation Ubiquitous information and innovation De De-

• massification

massification of productivity

• f productivity

Individual freedom operating system Individual freedom operating system

• vs. collectivism/authoritarianism
• vs. collectivism/authoritarianism

The leverage of terror The leverage of terror

$1,000,000,000,00 $1,000,000,000,00 ÷$200,000 $200,000 =5 000 000 to 1 =5 000 000 to 1 =5,000,000 to 1 =5,000,000 to 1

(before (before WMD’s WMD’s) )

The leverage The leverage

• f terror
• f terror

The leverage The leverage

• f terror
• f terror

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 5

How Armageddon can How Armageddon can happen happen How Armageddon can How Armageddon can happen happen

High altitude nuclear blast High altitude nuclear blast EMP EMP effects effects High altitude nuclear blast High altitude nuclear blast EMP EMP effects effects High altitude nuclear blast EMP effects High altitude nuclear blast High altitude nuclear blast EMP EMP effects effects Cruise Cruise missile attacks from tramp ships missile attacks from tramp ships Nukes Nukes in shipping containers in shipping containers Biological Biological--

• -viral

viral effects High altitude nuclear blast High altitude nuclear blast EMP EMP effects effects Cruise Cruise missile attacks from tramp ships missile attacks from tramp ships Nukes Nukes in shipping containers in shipping containers Biological Biological--

• -viral

viral effects High altitude nuclear blast EMP effects Cruise missile attacks from tramp ships Nukes in shipping containers

The leverage of terror The leverage of terror— — what do we do about it? what do we do about it? what do we do about it? what do we do about it?

• No state sponsors of terrorism

No state sponsors of terrorism

• No moral equivalence

No moral equivalence

• Preemption may be necessary

Preemption may be necessary

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 6

The Clash of Civilizations

for the world’s operating system (Herbert Meyer)

The Clash of Civilizations

for the world’s operating system (Herbert Meyer)

Individualism Pl li / Individualism Pl li / Collectivism* A th it i Collectivism* A th it i Pluralism/cons ent Freedom Free Enterprise P t i ht Pluralism/cons ent Freedom Free Enterprise P t i ht Authoritarian Elites Governance by force Feudalism Authoritarian Elites Governance by force Feudalism Property rights Progress Property rights Progress Feudalism Status Quo Feudalism Status Quo *Fascism, Socialism, Islamism, Shariah, Jihad

How We can Lose How We can Lose

• 1. A less productive/competitive economy
• 1. A less productive/competitive economy
• 2. Fail to develop economical energy
• 3. Well financed enemy
• 4. Less effective weapons
• 5. Acute asymmetrical factors
• 2. Fail to develop economical energy
• 3. Well financed enemy
• 4. Less effective weapons
• 5. Acute asymmetrical factors
• 6. Dedicated, fanatical enemy
• 7. Entropy of Western Civilization
• 8. Give up—”better red than dead”
• 6. Dedicated, fanatical enemy
• 7. Entropy of Western Civilization
• 8. Give up—”better red than dead”

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 7

• 1. Unlimited energy
• 2. Science/Innovation
• 1. Unlimited energy
• 2. Science/Innovation

How the world can win

• 2. Science/Innovation
• 3. Free Enterprise
• 4. US exceptionalism
• 5. Understand Shariah and Jihad
• 6. Avoid the zero sum game
• 2. Science/Innovation
• 3. Free Enterprise
• 4. US exceptionalism
• 5. Understand Shariah and Jihad
• 6. Avoid the zero sum game

g

• 7. Teach the importance of

productivity g

• 7. Teach the importance of

productivity

World energy requirements represent major problems and large opportunities Global Energy Consumption

EIA and Harvard Projections r

~ 3.5 x ~ 3 5 x

Quad BTU per year rillion BOE per year At the projected At the projected consumption, today’s consumption, today’s known reserves will be known reserves will be depleted by 2080 depleted by 2080

General Atomics Proprietary Data 14

3.5 x

Q T

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 8

After 60 years, there is a better way After 60 years, there is a better way for for N Nuclear uclear T Technology echnology

General Atomics Proprietary Data

EM2 represents a major breakthrough

Known Energy Reserves are not Inexhaustible

4 5

World Reserves

Trillions of Barrels Equivalent

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

4.2

General Atomics Proprietary Data 16

0.5 1 Natural Gas Oil Coal Uranium-PWR

1.7 1.5 0.35

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 9 Known Energy Reserves are Not Inexhaustible

100

World Reserves

Trillions of Barrels Equivalent

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

General Atomics Proprietary Data 17

1.7 1.5 4.2 0.35 10 20

Natural Gas Oil Coal Uranium-PWR

92 90 100

World Reserves

Trillions of Barrels Equivalent

Using EM2, World’s Uranium has 61 times More Energy Than all World’s Known Oil Reserves*

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

EM2 can increase uranium resources value from $28 trillion to $7,300 trillion (262 times more--oil equivalency value @ $80/bbl)

General Atomics Proprietary Data 18

1.7 1.5 4.2 0.35 10

Natural Gas Oil Coal Uranium-PWR Uranium-EM2

*Potential if >99% energy extracted from fuel

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 10 EM2 Will Change US Energy Reserves Dramatically

Depleted uranium/ used nuclear inventories Depleted uranium/ used nuclear inventories

12

US Energy Reserves

(Trillion Bbls Oil Energy Equivalent)

9.0 Tbbl Depleted Uranium 0.8 Tbbl Used Nuclear Fuel Equivalent to US

• il requirements

for 1400 years 40 Saudi Arabias Equivalent to US

• il requirements

for 1400 years 40 Saudi Arabias

1 15 2 4 6 8 10

US Depleted Uranium US Used Nuclear Fuel

9.78

General Atomics Proprietary Data 19

0.05 0.02 1.15 2

Natural Gas Oil Coal UNF/DU Energy

20

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 11

250

Projected Growth in Aquaculture

Fishmeal Alone Cannot Meet Aquaculture Demand

50 100 150 200

Million Tonnes Aquaculture Capture Fish Fishmeal

21

50

1 9 8 5

• 1

9 9

• 1

9 9 5

• 2
• 2

5

• 2

1

• 2

1 5

• 2

2

• 2

2 5

• 2

3

• Source: University of Idaho, Aquaculture Research Institute

22

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 12

23

23

Spectrum cuts cost, weight and Spectrum cuts cost, weight and fuel consumption fuel consumption— —in in half half

CONFIDENTIAL

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 13

Four things to do Four things to do

• 1. Develop real alternative energies
• 1. Develop real alternative energies
• 2. Modernize force structure to threat
• 3. Understand the Bush doctrine
• No state sponsors of terrorism
• Preemption
• Difference between democracy and
• 2. Modernize force structure to threat
• 3. Understand the Bush doctrine
• No state sponsors of terrorism
• Preemption
• Difference between democracy and
• Difference between democracy and

feudalism (moral equivalency)

• 4. Understand our Legacy and free

enterprise/economics

• Difference between democracy and

feudalism (moral equivalency)

• 4. Understand our Legacy and free

enterprise/economics Economics 101

Labor + Capital + Material = Production/Wealth/Prosperity?

42% 5% 10% 30% Wages Materials Capital Energy Regulation 5% 10% 3%

USA during high growth period

Government

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 14

42% 10% 30%

USA during high growth

Wages Materials Capital Energy 5% 10% 10% 3% 19% 5% 40%

USA Now

Regulation Government 5% 10% 15% 11% 40% 42% 30%

USA during high growth

19% 5% 10% 40%

Now

5% 10% 10% 3% 10% 15% 11% 30%

Opportunity

Wages l 45% 5% 10% 7% 3% Materials Capital Energy Regulation Government

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 15

What are the odds What are the odds next 50 years? next 50 years?

Really Really good good wealth productivity and wealth productivity and

• Really

Really good good—wealth, productivity and wealth, productivity and peace for almost everyone peace for almost everyone— —20% 20%

• Conflicts, limited terror, collectivist

Conflicts, limited terror, collectivist economic policies economic policies— —40% 40%

• Really

Really bad bad—major use of major use of WMD’s WMD’s, , clash of civilizations, collectivism clash of civilizations, collectivism— —40% 40% Lif f li Life of man: solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short

Thomas Hobbes—Leviathan--1651

The Aerospace & Defense Forum San Diego Chapter Linden Blue, General Atomics April 25, 2013 16

Freedom—the world’s best

• perating system